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BEITRAG VON U.S. MISSION TO THE OECD
U.S. Mission to the OECD
3.171 Follower:innen
2 Wochen
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Yesterday the OECD - OCDE launched it’s 2024 Economic Outlook, the annual
publication that examines the state of the world’s economy and provides an
analysis of OECD member countries’ economies and future growth potential. So
what does the report say? In short, the world’s economy has shown remarkable
resilience, with global growth holding steady and inflation continuing to
decline. The report notes, however, that differences vary wildly from country to
country, and that there are increasing risks to the future of economic growth
due to rising trade tensions and protectionism, a possible escalation of
geopolitical conflicts, and challenging fiscal policies in some countries. So
what does the report say about the United States specifically? The U.S. economy
remains strong with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024, moderating to 2.4%
in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Growth has been fueled by robust private consumption
brought about by real wage gains and strong public consumption. Public
consumption was particularly strong at the subnational level, due to resilient
tax revenues and pandemic-era federal aid. Business investment remains strong,
although housing investment is subdued due to higher interest rates. Inflation,
which peaked at 7.2% in June 2022, has steadily declined, reaching 2.3% by
October 2024, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This decline is
attributed to easing supply chain constraints, falling energy prices, and
increased labor productivity. Core inflation is also trending downward, though
at a slower pace. The labor market shows near-full employment, supported by a
surge in immigration that tripled annual net flows over pre-pandemic levels and
boosted labor productivity. The OECD notes that despite robust economic
performance, the United States faces some structural fiscal challenges. The
federal budget deficit is projected to remain over 7.5% of GDP, with the
debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%. Fiscal pressures are compounded by rising
mandatory spending on social programs due to an aging population and a narrowed
tax base. While the overall outlook for the United States is positive, the OECD
nonetheless had some suggestions. For example, the report urges policymakers to
undertake significant fiscal adjustments and explore visa reforms to alleviate
skilled labor shortages. Want to learn more? The full report is available on the
OECD’s website here: https://lnkd.in/gVpbTV-5
*
4
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RELEVANTERE BEITRÄGE
* M Mahbubul Alam
Data & Business Analyst | Empowering Individuals & SMEs in FinTech |
Financial Inclusion | Community Development | Fincrime Compliance
2 Monate
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Encouraging news for the UK economy! The OECD upgrades its growth forecast,
positioning Britain as one of the fastest-growing G7 economies this year.
Despite challenges like high inflation, robust consumer spending and wage
growth have been pivotal in this recovery. Looking ahead, maintaining fiscal
prudence is vital for driving sustainable growth. Excited to see how upcoming
policies will shape the future! #EconomicGrowth #UKEconomy #BusinessInsights
[Read more](https://lnkd.in/eTkEWXbj)
UK ECONOMY TO GROW FASTER THAN JAPAN, ITALY AND GERMANY THIS YEAR, SAYS OECD
THEGUARDIAN.COM
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* Leo Colgar
Principal Accountant @ Bright Accounting and Taxation Services | Tax Agent,
Public Practice
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Happy Weekend everyone! The OECD has issued the Economic Outlook, Volume
2024, Issue 2, last week. They analysed Australian economy between pages 103
and 105. Below are the key points in a nutshell: -- Economic Growth:
Australia’s GDP growth slowed under tight monetary conditions, projected to
rebound to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Inflation and Monetary Policy:
Headline inflation fell to 2.1% in 2024, within the target range, but core
inflation remains higher. Gradual monetary easing is expected from 2025.
--Labour Market: Unemployment has risen slightly but remains low. Labour
shortages persist in key sectors like construction and health, despite strong
post-pandemic immigration. --Fiscal Policy: Expansionary fiscal measures,
including tax cuts and energy support, are aiding consumption, but fiscal
consolidation is needed to address long-term pressures. Key Risks:
--Persistent services inflation delaying monetary easing. --Reduced
immigration could limit consumption growth and worsen labour shortages.
--Australia’s exposure to global trade restrictions and China's economic
fluctuations poses risks to export performance. --Strategic Focus:
Policymakers are advised to promote labour adaptability, manage housing
pressures without curbing immigration excessively, and prepare for
transitions in climate, ageing, and digitalisation. -- Growing percentage of
government debt against the GDP, from 55.1% in 2022 to 62.8% (as expected of
page 104) in 2026. You can find the full text, in attached pdf.
7
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* Financial News
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OECD raises estimate for UK economic growth The UK economy is expected to
grow by 1.1% in 2024, according to a new report. Raising its UK forecast from
just 0.4% in May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) said that the country -- along with the United States, Canada and
Spain -- had shown "robust" growth this year. In 2025, the UK is predicted to
see 1.2% growth. The global economy "remained resilient" in the first half of
2024, and inflation has continued to moderate, the intergovernmental
organisation said in its interim report. These trends are projected to
continue next year, with global growth "stabilising at a moderate pace" and
inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025. Risks
highlighted in the report include persisting geopolitical and trade tensions,
the possibility of a growth slowdown as labour markets cool, and potential
disruptions in financial markets if the projected smooth decrease in the rate
of inflation does not materialise. Conversely, the recovery in real incomes
could provide a stronger boost to consumer confidence and spending, and
further oil price declines would hasten the drop in inflation. The report
added: "Decisive fiscal actions are needed to ensure debt sustainability,
preserve room for governments to react to future shocks and generate
resources to help meet future spending pressures. Stronger efforts to contain
spending and enhance revenues, set within credible medium-term adjustment
paths, are key to ensuring that debt burdens stabilise." #oecd
OECD RAISES ESTIMATE FOR UK ECONOMIC GROWTH
HTTPS://WWW.FINANCIAL-NEWS.CO.UK
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* John Mather
Small Business Consultant, making every business more Productive, Profitable
& Valuable. Making your business much more Profitable sorts out lots of
problems. I focus on making staff more #Productive, ##collaborative
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OECD UPGRADES UK GROWTH FORECAST (www.thetimes.com/) The UK economy has
received the biggest annual growth upgrade in the G7 this year from a leading
international forecaster in a boost to the government’s attempts to kickstart
the economy. In its latest outlook on the world economy, the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development said the UK economy was on course to
expand by 1.1% this year, an upgrade of 0.7% from its last forecast in May.
The revision is the largest for any economy in the G7 this year, with the
OECD also expecting UK growth to come in 0.2% higher next year at 1.2%. The
Paris-based organisation, which is made up of the world’s most advanced
economies, said the UK was among a group of countries recording “robust”
growth rates this year, with activity bouncing back strongly after a mild
recession at the end of 2023. The OECD’s expected 1.1% growth rate this year
matches forecasts for France and Canada, both in the G7, but is far below the
projected 2.6% expansion forecast for the US in 2024. Japan is on course to
be the worst-performing advanced economy this year, with a contraction of
-0.1 % forecasted, while Germany is expected to record barely any growth,
only a 0.1% growth rate, the OECD forecast. #kentbusiness #ukgrowth
#ashfordfor #kentinvictachamber
OECD UPGRADES UK’S GROWTH FORECAST
THETIMES.COM
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* Fatin Resat Durukan
Policy Research and Advice @ OECD | PhD Candidate, Political Science
2 Monate
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Turkey 🇹🇷 / OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report sheds light on Turkey's
economic landscape as we head into 2024. The report projects Turkey's GDP
growth to be 3.2% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, surpassing the OECD average. This
growth is promising, yet the country faces formidable challenges regarding
inflation. Inflation Dynamics: The report forecasts Turkey's inflation rates
at 56% in 2024 and 29.1% in 2025. High inflation continues to be a
significant hurdle, necessitating a stringent monetary policy approach. The
OECD emphasizes the need for Turkey to maintain tight monetary policies until
at least mid-2025 to combat these inflationary pressures effectively.
Monetary Policy Recommendations: As inflation gradually declines, careful
management of interest rate cuts will be essential. The timing and pace of
these cuts must be strategically aligned to ensure inflation sustainably
returns to target levels. Structural Reforms Required: The report highlights
the need for structural reforms, especially in Turkey's service sectors,
which currently have a relatively high level of regulatory restrictions.
These limitations stifle competition and exacerbate inflationary trends. OECD
advises that enhancing competition through targeted reforms can help mitigate
inflation and foster sustainable economic growth. Long-Term Growth Potential:
The OECD suggests that reforms aimed at improving regulatory frameworks could
significantly boost Turkey's economic performance. For instance, aligning
Turkey’s regulations with those of the best-performing OECD countries could
increase per capita GDP by over 1% within a decade. Key Insights for Turkey:
GDP Growth: Projected at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. High Inflation:
Forecasted at 56% in 2024 and 29.1% in 2025. Monetary Policy: Tight policies
necessary until mid-2025; careful timing for rate cuts is crucial. Structural
Reforms: Essential for enhancing competition in service sectors and tackling
inflation.
24
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* Alessandro Sciamarelli
Director of Market Analysis and Economic Studies at European Steel
Association (EUROFER)
1 Monat
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European Commission's Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast just released: - Modest
economic growth in the EU is confirmed for this year (i.e. below 1%, 0.9%),
gaining some speed in 2025 (1.5%), and 2026 (1.8%) albeit conditional upon
multiple downside factors that are expected to continue to weigh on economic
activity (two wars, i.e. Ukraine and Middle East, developments in energy
prices, protracted weakness of the manufacturing sector) - Inflation is
expected to slow further down to 2.4% (yet still above the ECB target) in
2025, following from 2.6% in 2024, and then reach 2% in 2026 - Among major EU
economies, Germany will be back to growth in 2025, albeit with a modest 0.7%,
after two consecutive economic recessions over the two previous years (-0.3%
in '23 and -0.1% in '24). France and Spain are set to achieve higher real GDP
growth in '24 and '25 than the previous forecast (released in Spring): 1.1%
and 0.8% for FR, 3% (0.9 pp. higher) and 2.3% for ES. Italy will, on the
contrary, see its economy expand by 0.7% in '24 (-0.2 pp.) and by 1% in '25 -
As inflation rates have continued to decline throughout this year, the ECB
has cut its policy rate three times since the beginning of its loosening
cycle in May. At the cut-off date of this forecast, markets priced the euro
area deposit facility rate below 3% by the end of the year. By the end of
2025, the policy rate is expected to fall further to around 2%, some 60 basis
points lower than expected in spring, and to stabilise around that level also
for 2026 - The EU’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks
largely tilted to the downside. Russia’s protracted war of aggression against
Ukraine and the intensified conflict in the Middle East fuel geopolitical
risks and continued vulnerability of European energy security. A further
increase in protectionist measures by trading partners could weigh on global
trade, with negative impact on the EU's highly open economy. Low productivity
growth may make it increasingly difficult for firms to sustain wage growth.
Moreover, delays in the implementation of the ongoing Recovery and Resilience
Facility or a more restrictive fiscal stance in 2026 due to newly-established
fiscal rules in the euro area could further dampen economic activity.
https://lnkd.in/eryqYeRH
AUTUMN 2024 ECONOMIC FORECAST: A GRADUAL REBOUND IN AN ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT
EC.EUROPA.EU
6
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* TrueWealth.ie
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The European Commission's Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast
𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚 𝟎.𝟓% 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝'𝐬
𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒, primarily due to
a contraction in the multinational sector during the first half of the year.
However, a robust 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓,
with GDP 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐛𝐲 𝟒.𝟎%. This outlook suggests
that while Ireland faces short-term economic challenges, particularly within
its multinational sector, the medium-term prospects remain positive,
indicating resilience and potential for significant growth in the near
future. 🌟𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞'𝐬
𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬🌟 ❇️ 𝐁𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐉𝐨𝐛 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝
𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬: A stronger economy in 2025 could mean more job
opportunities and stability, especially in industries linked to multinational
companies like tech and pharmaceuticals. ❇️𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧:
If the economy grows and inflation stays low as predicted, everyday costs
like groceries and energy bills may rise slowly. ❇️𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞: People might feel more confident about
spending or making bigger financial decisions, like buying a home or starting
a business, knowing the economy is on the upswing. ❇️𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠
𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬: With economic recovery, the government and private
sector might invest more in housing, which could improve availability and
affordability over time. ❇️𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫
𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬: As the economy grows, there may be better
opportunities to save, invest, or benefit from pensions and financial
markets. While there might still be some bumps in 2024, the forecast suggests
a brighter and more stable financial future for Irish people in 2025. Talk to
our financial advisors—now is the perfect time to plan and prepare for the
opportunities ahead. Get a Financial Planning Quote today! 👉
https://bit.ly/4ggNFC4 https://lnkd.in/eYQKPCyu
IRISH ECONOMY TO SLOW IN 2024, 2025 REBOUND PREDICTED
RTE.IE
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* Financial News
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2 Monate
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OECD raises estimate for UK economic growth The UK economy is forecasted to
grow by 1.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 1.2% predicted for 2025,
according to a report by the OECD. The global economy has shown resilience in
the first half of 2024, with inflation expected to moderate and overall
growth stabilising at a moderate pace. However, risks such as geopolitical
tensions, potential slowdowns in labor markets, and disruptions in financial
markets remain. The report emphasizes the need for decisive fiscal actions to
ensure debt sustainability and generate resources for future spending
pressures. #EconomicForecast #GlobalEconomy #FiscalActions #OECD
#InflationControl
OECD RAISES ESTIMATE FOR UK ECONOMIC GROWTH
HTTPS://WWW.FINANCIAL-NEWS.CO.UK
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* Stuart M. Basefsky
[Retired] Information Specialist & Lecturer & Director IWS News Bureau at ILR
School/Cornell University
5 Monate
* Diesen Beitrag melden
OECD Economic Surveys: Austria 2024 [8 July 2024] https://lnkd.in/gVFECG8E
Austria’s economy performed well over the past two decades. The country’s GDP
per capita ranks among the highest in the OECD. Income inequalities are
relatively low thanks to high redistribution through public transfers, which
contributes to a relative poverty rate well below many other OECD countries.
The domestic production of energy has a low carbon content largely due to
significant hydropower resources. The economy is set to recover from a
recession in 2023, but it will do so only slowly and remains fragile. The
inflation shock in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is
taking time to subside. Public debt has increased substantially, while the
public deficit remains close to 3%. Greater capacity of the economy to adapt
to future shocks and address structural challenges is needed. Sound public
finances and low government debt provide fiscal space and strengthen a
country’s resilience against short- and long-term shocks. Pension system
reforms and efficiency measures in health care can help to mitigate long-term
fiscal pressures. Public revenues need to be more friendly to sustainable and
inclusive growth by shifting away from high levies on labour towards less
growth-distortive taxes. Easing regulation, including strict entry
requirements for certain professional services will help efficient allocation
of resources towards promising activities and firms. Reducing the gap in
skills for disadvantaged students and improving the integration of immigrants
will be essential to provide equal access to the labour market. Achieving net
zero emissions by 2040 will require a clear and comprehensive strategy
including higher and more harmonised carbon prices. High exposure to future
climate risks, in particular floods, needs to be addressed, and insurance
coverage against natural disasters should be expanded. SPECIAL FEATURE:
ACHIEVING A SUCCESSFUL GREEN TRANSFORMATION IN AUSTRIA
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: AUSTRIA 2024
OECD-ILIBRARY.ORG
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* Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft
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📉 📈 𝗞𝗶𝗲𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗲'𝘀 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗺𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁:
𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰,
𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸 German economic output is
likely to shrink again in 2024, after it has already fallen in the previous
year. This is according to the Kiel Institute's latest autumn forecast.
Positive signals in the middle of the year have not been confirmed, which is
why the Kiel Institute is revising its expectations for this year and the
coming year significantly downwards.𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹
𝗯𝘆 𝟬.𝟭 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 (𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁:
+𝟬.𝟮 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁). 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟭.𝟭 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝟬.𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁. The
unemployment rate is likely to rise to up to 6.1 percent, inflation is
presumed to grad-ually ease to 2 percent. 🗣 "Previous upward signals by
early bird indicators have disappointed," says Stefan Kooths, head of
forecasting at the Kiel Institute, commenting on the fall forecast published
today. "While public and quasi-public services have been upward trending most
private activities performed poorly. Overall and looking forward, the German
economy is stuttering into an anemic recovery, partly because economic policy
is unable to set a reliable course." 🗣 "The German economy is increasingly
facing a crisis that is not only cyclical but also structural in nature,"
says Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute. "The budget cuts of
the government coalition are an additional burden here and the ECB's interest
rate turnaround is coming too late for Germany. What's more, old core
industries have been resistant to change for far too long and the asylum
debate is poisoning the dialog about the economic need to attract skilled
workers from abroad. As long as this remains the case, we can watch our
growth opportunities dwindle." In its forecast for the 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹
𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆, the Kiel Institute predicts growth rates of a good 3 percent
for this year and the next two years. India's economic output will grow
particularly strongly, by around 7 percent. This means that
German exports (2025: +1.2 percent; 2026: +2.5 percent) will lag noticeably
behind global momentum in the forecast period. Link to all details in first
comment ⬇
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