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NVIDIA is in talks to bring Blackwell production to the US, potentially reducing
risks and increasing capacity for the in-demand chipset..  ͏ ­

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NVIDIA’S BLACKWELL CHIPS SET FOR ARIZONA MANUFACTURING BY TSMC?

Written by Thomas Hughes



Reports that NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) could make its Blackwell chips are resonating
throughout the semiconductor industry. The news is good for numerous reasons,
but there are hurdles and risks to be overcome. The good news is that a path to
expanded Blackwell production and reduced geopolitical risk is clear. The bad
news is that Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) isn’t 100% capable of
manufacturing the chips in the United States, at least not yet. 


NVIDIA ONSHORING AND RAMPING PRODUCTION OF BLACKWELL

Onshoring the production of NVIDIA chips aligns with national interests and
reduces geopolitical exposure to China, but this isn’t possible with this deal.
TSMC’s Arizona facility is state-of-the-art but not equipped to produce CoWoS or
Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate packaging, a proprietary process developed for
high-intensity computing and AI needs. That means Blackwell chips will have to
be shipped to Taiwan for completion, bringing geopolitical risk and many others
back into the equation, but there is hope. 

TSMC was awarded $6.6 billion in CHIPS Act funding as part of a total investment
plan of $65 billion. The money will be used to build new facilities, which may
include a new CoWoS facility critical to onshoring Blackwell production. The
company is already considering new plants in Japan and the US to meet the
increased demand and plans to double its production capacity more than once by
2026. 

There is hope that a deal with Amkor (NASDAQ: AMKR) will meet NVIDIA’s needs
between then and now. Amkor is a global supplier of microchip packaging services
and will do CoWoS at Arizona facilities. TSMC and Amkor inked a deal earlier
this year, and the first production facility plans are set. Early TSMC customers
likely to benefit include Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), NVIDIA’s most
significant competition in AI GPU and CPUs, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The bad
news is that the first phase won't be completed until 2027 or later, and the
final stages are slated to open in the middle of the next decade. 


NVIDIA WILL SUPRISE THE MARKET WITH RUBIN IN 2025

There is growing speculation that NVIDIA will surprise the market and release
the next generation of AI technology six months earlier than anticipated. The
news is strengthening the updraft in share prices and will likely result in
persistent data center upgrades over the long term. Rubin is expected to
generate better outcomes because of AI-specific architecture, TSMC’s advanced
3nm manufacturing process, and next-generation HBM4 memory. The chips are
expected to be more powerful, store exponentially more data, and work more
efficiently than their predecessors. NVIDIA has also partnered with Schneider
Electric to develop innovative cooling systems for its advanced GPU and CPU
products. 

MarketBeat hasn’t tracked analyst activity related to the TSMC/Arizona news, but
the group is active in 2024, and the trends are positive. The analysts' coverage
is rising; the sentiment is firm at a Strong Buy, and the consensus price target
is increasing. The price target rose nearly 15% in November alone, and the
revisions led to even higher price points. Consensus assumes about 15% upside
from the critical support target while the high-end adds another 25%. 

The price action is bullish in late 2024, with the stock at fresh all-time highs
and showing support at a critical level. The critical level aligns with a
previous all-time high and the top of a consolidation range. The next big move
will likely be higher, with the critical resistance target near $150. A move
above that level would likely trigger another momentum upswing and take the
market up to the $190 to $200 range. 



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OKTA: BULLISH SIGNALS SUGGEST A MARKET REVERSAL IS UNDERWAY

Written by Thomas Hughes



Okta’s (NASDAQ: OKTA) share price has suffered since the peaks set in 2021, but
those days are over. The cyber security company has gained traction over the
past two years, and the Okta stock market normalized after its bubble burst.
Today’s takeaway is that the CQ3/FQ2 2025 results sparked a high-volume
movement, signaling support at a critical level, confirming the market bottom,
and a high likelihood it will continue to move higher and confirm a complete
reversal. The daily and weekly charts show some resistance to higher prices, but
the overall signal is very bullish. It shows support at a pair of moving
averages, a golden crossover in the EMAs, convergence and bearish crossovers in
the technical indicators, and near-record volume. 


OKTA: BEAT AND RAISE QUARTER IMPRESSES THE ANALYSTS 

Okta had a solid quarter, with large customers and public and private businesses
contributing to growth. The company reported $665 million in net revenue, up 14%
year over year, driven by a 14% increase in subscriptions. The revenue outpaced
MarketBeat’s reported consensus by 230 basis points and is compounded by wider
margins, leveraged bottom-line results, and robust guidance. RPO, an indicator
of future growth, grew by 19%, with nearly 14% expected to be recognized in the
next 12 months. 

The margin news is more impressive, with gross and operating margins improving
compared to last year. The company continues to post GAAP losses, but the loss
narrowed significantly, putting the company on track for GAAP profits soon. The
adjusted operating margin, which is important because of cash flow, was widened
by 600 basis points to drive robust cash and free cash flow, about 23% of the
revenue. 

The report's most impressive detail is the guidance. The company guided for
strength in Q4 and the year relative to the consensus, putting the low end of
the revenue and EPS range well above the analysts' forecast. The Q4 EPS is
expected to be more than 500 basis points above the pre-release consensus, but
the company may be cautious with its estimates. Security is a priority for
businesses, institutions, and organizations globally and is only becoming more
so as the pace and severity of attacks increase. 


THE ANALYSTS HEAP PRAISE ON OKTA AFTER SOLID GUIDANCE

The analysts are overwhelmingly bullish in their response to the news, showering
it with price target increases and at least one upgrade. The 20 updates tracked
by MarketBeat include a few reiterated price targets but a sufficient number of
increases to lift the consensus by nearly 500 basis points overnight. The
revision trend shows a high conviction in the belief that this stock will trade
above $100, which is good for a minimum gain of nearly 20% from critical support
levels. The trend suggests the market will move into the high-end range within
twelve months, adding another 35% to 40% to the stock price. The takeaway from
the chatter is that Okta’s improved execution drives results in the face of
economic headwinds, new products are expected to drive growth in the long term,
and the growth trajectory is good. 

The institutional activity also supports Okta’s stock price in CQ4. The
institutions own more than 85% of the stock and have bought on balance every
quarter of 2024. Their activity aligns with the market bottom and support at the
150-day moving average. The stock price above that average indicates it can
trend higher in 2025. The critical resistance level is near the $100 mark and
may be tested soon. A move above $100 is another bullish signal that could
trigger an inflow of fresh capital. In that scenario, the market could quickly
move up to the analysts' high-end range. 



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BLACKROCK MAKES WAVES WITH $12B PRIVATE CREDIT ACQUISITION

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson



BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) is the world's largest asset manager, and the company
recently announced an intriguing and significant strategic shift. BlackRock has
released that it will acquire HPS Investment Partners for approximately $12
billion, marking a bold expansion into the rapidly growing private credit market
and presenting a compelling investment opportunity for investors willing to
stomach the risks of investing in the rapidly expanding private credit sector. 

Private credit encompasses debt financing provided directly to companies by
institutions outside the traditional banking system. Unlike publicly traded
bonds, private credit investments are not subject to the same regulatory
scrutiny and liquidity. This market has experienced remarkable growth driven by
several factors. Tighter regulations on banks, coupled with increased demand for
alternative financing solutions for companies, particularly smaller businesses,
have created significant opportunities in this previously less accessible market
segment. Key players now include not only traditional banks but also large asset
managers, private equity firms, and specialized credit funds, creating a dynamic
and often highly competitive investment terrain.


BLACKROCK: A FINANCIAL COLOSSUS

BlackRock's success in asset management is undeniable. With trillions in assets
under management (AUM) and a vast global reach, it is synonymous with stability
and financial strength. The firm's history of innovation and consistent
performance in managing diversified investment portfolios has solidified its
position as an industry leader. BlackRock's ability to manage significant sums
of capital effectively underscores the firm's capacity to take on large-scale
acquisitions and integrate them successfully into its broader operations.


THE HPS ACQUISITION: A STRATEGIC MASTERSTROKE

BlackRock's acquisition of HPS Investment Partners, a highly specialized private
credit firm with approximately $148 billion in AUM, is a pivotal moment in its
ongoing evolution. The $12 billion all-stock deal underscores the considerable
commitment BlackRock has made to expand into private credit. This transaction
was not primarily for increased immediate profits but instead focused on
developing a longer-term competitive advantage by directly accessing the
expanding private credit market. 

This acquisition allows BlackRock to seamlessly integrate its public market
expertise with HPS's specialized capabilities in private credit. The synergy
between BlackRock's comprehensive technological platform and HPS's expertise in
originating and underwriting complex private credit opportunities creates a
strong value proposition for their combined client base. The creation of a new
private financing solutions business unit, uniting the two firms' strengths,
positions BlackRock to offer more sophisticated and comprehensive financial
products that cater to the increasingly complex demands of institutions and
large corporations.


BLACKROCK'S RECENT ACQUISITIONS AND STRATEGIC VISION

The HPS acquisition is not an isolated incident. Earlier this year, BlackRock
also acquired Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and the private market data
provider Preqin. These transactions demonstrate a consistent and deliberate
strategic expansion into alternative asset classes. BlackRock’s leadership has
openly discussed their belief that a blending of public and private market
strategies better serves the evolving needs of their institutional investors. By
acquiring expertise in private credit, infrastructure, and data-driven
analytics, BlackRock is strategically positioning itself to capture
opportunities in these dynamic market segments and remain at the forefront of
innovative financial services.


BLACKROCK'S Q3 2024: STRONG PERFORMANCE, SOLID RESULTS

BlackRock's earnings for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 (Q3 FY2024)
revealed a picture of financial health. The asset manager reported record
quarterly net inflows of $221 billion, representing an 8% annualized organic
asset growth rate. This substantial influx of capital underscores strong client
confidence and demand for BlackRock's diverse investment products and services.
Moreover, revenue surged 15% year-over-year, exceeding BlackRock’s analyst
community’s expectations. 

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $10.90, exceeding consensus estimates,
further demonstrating BlackRock’s ability to generate strong financial
performance. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $5.10 per share,
underlining its commitment to shareholder returns and reflecting a sustainable
dividend payout policy. These impressive figures underscore BlackRock's
financial strength and its well-positioned status for continued growth,
providing a solid base for its strategic expansion in the competitive private
credit sector.


NAVIGATING THE INHERENT RISKS

While BlackRock's strategic moves and financial health are promising, potential
risks must be carefully considered. The private credit market is inherently less
liquid than public markets. Integrating HPS's operations into BlackRock's
existing infrastructure presents challenges. The complexity of underwriting
private credit investments, combined with the evolving regulatory environment,
could also impact BlackRock’s financial returns. Further, general market
volatility remains a significant risk, impacting all publicly traded securities,
including BlackRock's stock. The competitive terrain in the asset management
industry is also intense, with other major players aggressively pursuing similar
strategic growth opportunities.


BLACKROCK IN PRIVATE CREDIT

BlackRock's foray into private credit presents a compelling yet complex
investment opportunity. The potential for substantial long-term growth, driven
by the expanding private credit market and BlackRock's strategic acquisition of
HPS Investment Partners, is significant. 

However, the inherent illiquidity of private credit and the integration
challenges associated with such a large-scale acquisition introduce notable
risks to BlackRock's portfolio.  The complexity of private credit underwriting
and evolving regulations introduce uncertainty. General market fluctuations will
also affect BlackRock's performance, underscoring the importance of a long-term
perspective.

Therefore, investors considering BlackRock stock should carefully evaluate their
risk tolerance. Conservative investors might find other, less volatile options
more suitable. Moderate investors might view BlackRock as a compelling long-term
growth opportunity, factoring in the potential rewards against the recognized
risks. Aggressive investors, willing to accept higher volatility for potentially
higher returns, may find BlackRock's expansion into the dynamic private credit
market especially appealing. Careful analysis of BlackRock's ongoing performance
and the integration of HPS will be critical in assessing the investment's actual
return. A diversified investment strategy remains advisable for mitigating
overall risk exposure.

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on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early
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