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College Football


NEW CFP RANKINGS: A TASTY ALABAMA-NOTRE DAME MATCHUP, A SALTY MIAMI?

In the final College Football Playoff bracket projection before Sunday’s reveal,
the Crimson Tide would face the Fighting Irish in the first round. The
Hurricanes sit just outside the 12-team field.

Updated
December 3, 2024 at 9:12 p.m. ESTyesterday at 9:12 p.m. EST
7 min
190

The College Football Playoff bracket projection released Tuesday. The final
bracket will be revealed Sunday afternoon.
By Chuck Culpepper

With Alabama edging out Miami for the last at-large spot in the College Football
Playoff in the rankings presented Tuesday night, the prospect of an
Alabama-Notre Dame first-round game in South Bend, Indiana, shone from the
bracket of the moment ahead of the final bracket coming Sunday.


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The Crimson Tide (9-3), a program that made a peerless eight of the 10 playoffs
across the four-team era, had drifted into unfamiliar peril after its startling
24-3 loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 23, plunging from No. 7 to No. 13 and out of the
12-team picture in rankings last week. But the turbulence around Alabama
resuscitated Alabama, and that turbulence included the 42-38 loss by Miami
(10-2) on Saturday at freshly ranked Syracuse. That sent the Hurricanes plunging
from No. 6 to No. 12, with the 13-member selection committee valuing Alabama’s
superior strength of schedule alongside Miami’s above its inferior record when
it raised the Tide two places to No. 11.



“I just want to say to everybody on the [media teleconference] call: These are
not easy decisions for us to make,” said committee chairman Warde Manuel, the
athletic director at Michigan.

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As the rankings in this new format reached the fifth of six weekly tabulations,
with systemic nods to conference champions, those rankings differ from the
seedings. If the season ended now, the first round of Dec. 20-21 would feature
No. 11 seed Alabama at No. 6 seed Notre Dame (11-1), No. 12 seed Arizona State
(10-2) at No. 5 Penn State (11-1), No. 9 seed Tennessee (10-2) at No. 8 seed
Ohio State and No. 10 seed Indiana (11-1) at No. 7 seed Georgia (10-2).

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Byes would go to, in seeding order, No. 1 Oregon (12-0) of the Big Ten, No. 2
Texas (11-1) of the SEC, No. 3 SMU (11-1) of the ACC and No. 4 Boise State
(11-1) of the Mountain West — even though those teams hold down rankings Nos. 1,
2, 8 and 10, respectively. Those teams would await the four first-round winners
in quarterfinals set around New Year’s Eve and Day at the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar
and Peach bowls.



As things stand, a fifth bid for a conference champion would go to the team that
emerges from the Big 12 bout between Arizona State (10-2) and Iowa State (10-2),
set for Saturday in Arlington, Texas. As those teams held down rankings spots
Nos. 15 and 16, the Big 12 winner would have the lowest ranking among conference
champions, thus missing out on a bye.

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The seven at-large bids would go to teams ranked Nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 11:
Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama.
Notre Dame’s long-running independence prevents it from gaining one of the byes,
a condition to which it agreed during the hatching of the system. Ohio State
slipped as expected from No. 2 in the rankings but only to No. 6 after its
bewildering 13-10 home loss to Michigan, and Georgia rose from No. 7 to No. 5
after its eight-overtime home win over Georgia Tech, a game that threatened
Georgia’s candidacy before it landed at 44-42 in the Bulldogs’ favor.

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No. 5 Georgia stayed ahead of No. 6 Ohio State, Manuel said, partly because “the
two losses by Georgia were to ranked teams, Alabama and Mississippi, both on the
road.” Ohio State, in turn, stayed ahead of No. 7 Tennessee, with the chance to
grab a home-field advantage, partly because, he said, “Ohio State is 2-1 against
top-10 teams,” even as they’re “very close” and prompted “a constant
conversation as to how we saw both teams, a lot of deliberation on them.”

Alabama inched ahead of a falling Miami because of its schedule, which at
present shows its 12 opponents at 91-52 overall and its nine victims at 69-38,
set against Miami’s 74-70 and 58-62. Alabama has three wins over ranked teams —
No. 5 Georgia, No. 14 South Carolina and No. 19 Missouri — while Miami has none.
The three teams that beat Alabama have records of 6-6, 10-2 and 6-6 (22-14),
while the two that beat Miami have records of 7-5 and 9-3 (16-8), the latter
Syracuse, which just debuted in the rankings at No. 22.

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As Manuel described how Miami, in turn, stayed ahead of No. 13 Mississippi (9-3)
and No. 14 South Carolina (9-3), he reached across the bubbling array of data
and brought up Mississippi’s losses to Kentucky (4-8) and LSU (8-4) and might
have mentioned Florida (7-5). Mississippi has two wins over ranked teams —
Georgia and South Carolina — and leads South Carolina because they have matching
records and the Rebels blasted the Gamecocks, 27-3, at South Carolina.
Mississippi’s opponents stand at 74-70 and its victims at 58-62, with South
Carolina’s opponents at 82-62 and its victims at 56-52.

A loud wrench possible from the championship-game weekend up ahead could come
from Clemson (9-3), which just lost at home to South Carolina and fell five
places to No. 17 but can make the final dozen because it would become a
conference champion if it can beat SMU in Charlotte on Saturday night in the ACC
title game. That outcome would dredge another puzzle: Would the Mustangs remain
in the field? “I can’t sort of go into the future and tell you how the outcome
of the decision will go,” Manuel said. “It depends on the outcome of the game
and how it’s played.” As to whether SMU could fall all the way out, Manuel said,
“Potentially, yes. And could move above teams as well.”

Then there’s the team lodged at No. 20 and up two notches from the previous
week: UNLV (10-2), which lost, 29-24, to Boise State on Oct. 25 in Las Vegas and
will play the Broncos again Friday night, this time in Boise. The winner of that
will claim the Mountain West and also probably the berth accorded the leading
conference champion from the Group of Five, the sport’s second tier. Another
Group of Five team, Army (10-1), reentered the list at No. 24 as it sets to
welcome Tulane on Friday night for the American Athletic Conference championship
game.

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The committee, whose membership varies year by year, consists of four longtime
coaches who have retired, six current athletic directors, one media
representative and two decorated former players. One of those, Randall McDaniel,
the Arizona State graduate and NFL Pro Bowl mainstay with the Minnesota Vikings,
had to miss deliberations this past weekend for personal reasons but will return
for the final set of talks this coming weekend. “Even if we have one member
that’s absent, we still have a quorum,” executive director Rich Clark said,
after which Manuel noted how committee members with teams involved in
discussions recuse themselves for those discussions.


PROJECTED PLAYOFF FIELD

First-round byes

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No. 1 seed Oregon (Big Ten champion)

No. 2 seed Texas (SEC champion)

No. 3 seed SMU (ACC champion)

No. 4 seed Boise State (Mountain West champion)

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First-round matchups

No. 12 seed Arizona State at No. 5 seed Penn State

No. 11 seed Alabama at No. 6 seed Notre Dame

No. 10 seed Indiana at No. 7 seed Georgia

No. 9 seed Tennessee at No. 8 seed Ohio State


THIS WEEK’S RANKINGS

1. Oregon (12-0)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Penn State (11-1)

4. Notre Dame (11-1)

5. Georgia (10-2)

6. Ohio State (10-2)

7. Tennessee (10-2)

8. SMU (11-1)

9. Indiana (11-1)

10. Boise State (11-1)

11. Alabama (9-3)

12. Miami (10-2)

13. Mississippi (9-3)

14. South Carolina (9-3)

15. Arizona State (10-2)

16. Iowa State (10-2)

17. Clemson (9-3)

18. BYU (10-2)

19. Missouri (9-3)

20. UNLV (10-2)

21. Illinois (9-3)

22. Syracuse (9-3)

23. Colorado (9-3)

24. Army (10-1)

25. Memphis (10-2)

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190 Comments
College football
HAND CURATED
 * Matt Bonesteel
   College football coaching carousel: Purdue, West Virginia, UCF jobs open up
   Earlier today
   
 * Kevin Blackistone
   When you promise old-fashioned hate, don’t be surprised when you get it
   Earlier today
   
 * Chuck Culpepper
   New CFP rankings: A tasty Alabama-Notre Dame matchup, a salty Miami?
   December 3, 2024
   

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