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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY Nov 07, 2023


GLOBAL PMI DATA SHOW PRICES RISING AT SLOWEST RATE SINCE DECEMBER 2020

Chris Williamson

Global inflationary pressures moderated in October to their lowest since
late-2020, according to PMI® data compiled by S&P Global across over 40
economies and sponsored by JPMorgan.

Although the overall rate of inflation of selling prices for goods and services
remains above its pre-pandemic average, amid some stickiness of services
inflation and a modest upturn in goods prices, there is encouraging news on
underlying - or core - price pressures cooling further in the coming months. In
particular, wage pressures have moderated markedly in recent months and
companies' pricing power has been hit by reduced demand. Demand-pull price
pressures are reverting to their long-run average.

Central bank inflation targets have now consequently come into view in the US
and eurozone. Some price stickiness is more evident in the UK, though even here
the rate of inflation looks set to moderate sharply in the coming months.


GLOBAL PRICES RISE AT SLOWEST RATE SINCE DECEMBER 2020

Average prices charged for goods and services rose globally at the slowest rate
for nearly three years in October. The global PMI selling price index - compiled
by S&P Global and covering prices charged for both goods and services in all
major developed and emerging markets - fell from 53.6 in September to 53.0 in
October, its lowest since December 2020.

The further decline in the selling price index from its all-time high recorded
in April 2022 brings global inflationary pressures closer to the survey's long
run average of 52.2 (and closer to the five-year pre-pandemic five-year average
of 51.6).

The leading-indicator properties of the PMI mean that global inflation is set to
cool further from the 5.0% annual rate estimated from various national sources
for July, potentially dropping to around 3.5% early in the new year.

Although a 3.5% rate remains somewhat elevated by historical standards (in the
decade prior to the pandemic, global CPI inflation averaged 2.7%), there are
good reasons to believe underlying price pressures will continue to moderate
even further in the months ahead.


COOLER SERVICES INFLATION

Looking at sector divergences, recent months have seen some firming of goods
prices, linked in part to higher oil prices as well as a waning of the
deflationary impact of healing supply chains. Encouragingly, service sector
prices, which provided a major lift to global inflation earlier in the year as
demand for consumer services surged, continued to show a slower rate of increase
in October. The overall global rise in services prices at the start of the
fourth quarter was the smallest since February 2021.

Looking in more detail, prices fell in only one of the 26 sub-sectors covered by
the PMI - Forestry & Paper products - but rates of increase only gathered pace
in nine sectors, and of these three were from financial services, in part
reflecting higher interest rates.


ENERGY COST PRESSURES UP ONLY MODESTLY FROM RECENT LOWS

One of the big uncertainties facing the inflation outlook is the impact of
changing oil prices, notably in response to the geopolitical risks. However,
there seems to be some good news in this respect. Analysing the reasons for
changing selling prices cited by PMI survey respondents around the world, the
impact of higher energy prices remains in line with its long-run average, albeit
with this representing higher pressures than seen before the recent oil price
rise.

Upward pressure from broader raw material inputs has meanwhile fallen to its
second-lowest since January 2021.


LOWER WAGE PRESSURES

A further key development in the inflation dynamic has been a marked reduction
in upward pressure from wages. The inflationary impact of wages on average
prices charged for goods and services has fallen to its second-lowest since June
2021. While the easing inflationary impact of wage pressures was most marked in
the manufacturing sector in October, pressures have also clearly cooled
substantially in services compared to that seen over the past two years.


DEMAND-PULL PRICE EFFECT EVAPORATES

However, perhaps the most interesting development is the degree to which
demand-pull inflationary forces have moderated. Lower demand has removed pricing
power from manufacturers over the past nine months - as proxied by price
pressures dropping below their long-run average. Additionally, upward demand
pressures on prices in the service sector have now also fallen to a level in
line with their long-run average amid the weakened demand environment.

The overall demand-pull effect on prices consequently evaporated at the start of
the fourth quarter, boding well for a further easing of core inflationary
pressures around the world.


FOMC AND ECB INFLATION TARGETS IN SIGHT

Looking at price trend variations around the world, the steepest decline in
inflationary pressures has been seen in the eurozone, where the PMI's selling
price index covering goods and services has fallen to its lowest since February
2021 and is now only 1.6 index points above its pre-pandemic long run average.
At this level, the PMI index is signaling CPI inflation to fall further from
2.9% in October to closer to the ECB's target of 2% at the turn of the year.

The Fed's 2% target has also come into sight after the PMI's selling price index
across the US fell to its lowest since October 2020 to a level just 1.2 points
above its pre-pandemic decade average.

Inflation looks stickier in the UK, however, as the PMI's selling price index
rose 0.2 points in October, and remains 4.1 points above its pre-pandemic
10-year average. The latest readings are nevertheless consistent with UK annual
CPI inflation moderating from its current 6.7% rate to a range closer to 4% as
we move into 2024.

In Asia, the PMI hints at inflation dipping below 2% in Japan in the coming
months, while in mainland China the recent ground gained by the PMI selling
price index has helped allay fears of deflation.

Access the Global PMI press release here.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Tel: +44 207 260 2329

chris.williamson@spglobal.com


© 2023, S&P Global. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part
without permission is prohibited.

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than
40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior
executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription.
The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health
of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic
drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and
inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to
better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover
opportunities.

Learn more about PMI data

Request a demo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P
Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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