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Marcel Crok, Andy May. THE FROZEN CLIMATE VIEWS OF THE IPCC An analysis of AR6
EDITED BY MARCEL CROK , ANDY MAY Colophon The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC
2023 by.
Стр.
... IPCC's AR6 downplays the Sun The UV Amplifier The Cosmic Ray Amplifier
Climate models cannot capture the sun IPCC has progressively downgraded the sun
Conclusions 7 Misty Climate Sensitivity A Sensitive Matter Models versus
observations ...
Стр.
... IPCC the " Big Panel " . This is an apt description , except the IPCC is no
longer a single entity , instead it now consists of numerous “ Big Panels "
which have less and less in common with one another . Each one produces
large ...
Стр.
... IPCC holds a single view on every given topic . Yet the media routinely
invokes the IPCC as a unified body putting forward a simple , clear ( and dire )
message , and politicians rely on this message to justify their climate policies
. The ...
Стр.
... IPCC . In some cases , though , we document such blatant cherry picking by
the IPCC , that even ardent supporters of the IPCC should feel embarrassed . The
IPCC seems obsessed with a few themes : the current warming is unique or
their ...
Стр.
... IPCC has delivered after six assessment reports . Each report consists of
three working group reports and a synthesis report . In March 2023 , with the
publication of the AR6 Synthesis Report , the IPCC finished its sixth
assessment ...
Стр.
... IPCC can also be seen as a “ knowledge monopoly ' and as such it suffers
from the same dangers as any other monopoly . The well - known Dutch ( climate )
economist Richard Tol , who contributed to several IPCC reports , but was
not ...
Стр.
... IPCC as a ' Voldemort ' , the Harry Potter villain ' whose name shall not be
named'.7 Indeed , as we document in several chapters of this report , the IPCC
avoids mentioning his work , so they can draw opposite conclusions . Pielke
told ...
Стр.
... IPCC reports ( although some have been “ expert reviewer ” of one or more
IPCC reports ) and who are experienced with the underlying climate science
literature . We investigated if the IPCC followed its own principles . Are
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC seems to act like George Orwell's ministry of truth , by rewriting
earth's climate history . Moreover , the IPCC failed to discuss these issues in
a comprehensive and transparent way . Their bias is revealed in their choice of
what ...
Стр.
... IPCC appears to agree that GMST is a poor measure of climate change and
provides a plot of the change in ocean heat content in AR6 on page 350 , it is
shown below as Figure 3. The steep upward slope appears alarming as it moves
from 0 ...
Стр.
... IPCC introduced a brand - new dataset that wasn't ven published yet at the
time of the Second Ordr Draft , the last version that is seen by reviewers . Not
surprisingly , the scientist behind this new dataset , Lawrence Mudryk , was ...
Стр.
... IPCC AR6 report . The outcome of the assessment is largely decided when
report authors are nominated . In this case , the lead author of a key paper ,
Lawrence Mudryk , was nominated as contributing IPCC author and most likely ...
Стр.
... IPCC conflates their recent ' acceleration ' of the sea level with this
multidecadal variability . This should become clear in the next 10 to 20 years .
Right now , it is very preliminary to claim there is an acceleration of the
sea ...
Стр.
Marcel Crok, Andy May. Figure 8: e IPCC projected sea level change versus
observations for Stockholm, Sweden. Only time will tell if the IPCC sea level
projections are correct, but they do contrast strongly when compared to
recent ...
Стр.
... IPCC deadline but came to a different conclusion about the potential role of
the sun in the warming period since 1850. The paper discusses the current
uncertainties regarding both solar and climate data , and concludes that the
data on ...
Стр.
... IPCC AR6 narrowed the likely range to be between 2.5 ° C and 4.0 ° C . The
report discusses the AR6 estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 in Chapter 7.33
It explains that AR6 relied heavily on Sherwood et al . ( 2020 ) , an
important ...
Стр.
... IPCC to predict future temperatures and climate.37 He finds that the IPCC
admission that the higher emissions scenarios , SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 are
unlikely is deeply buried in the report , and unlikely to be read by the policy
makers ...
Стр.
... IPCC emissions scenarios are unlikely and should be considered unrealistic ,
academic extremes . Crok reports that 42 % of the AR6 mentions of scenarios are
of the most unlikely SSP5-8.5 scenario . Given that numerous authors have ...
Стр.
... IPCC has low confidence that humans have contributed to flooding , yet the
Summary for Policy Makers says the opposite , they believe that human influence
has increased " compound " flooding ( WG1 SPM A.3.5 ) . Crok concludes that
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC assessment reinforced the conclusions of the IPCC ( 2012 ) special
report on extreme events , providing even stronger evidence : " There is medium
evidence and high agreement that long - term trends in normalised losses have
not ...
Стр.
... IPCC- i.e. , that current warming is unprecedented , that it is 100 % caused
by humans , that it is dangerous - are ...
ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/09/ipcc-principles.pdf 2
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26655779 ...
Стр.
... IPCC . Climatic Change , 108 ( 4 ) . pp . 827-839 . ISSN 0165-0009 4
https://archive.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_review.shtml This became known
as ' Himalayan Blunder ' or ' glacier - gate ' : https://www.theguardian.com ...
Стр.
Marcel Crok, Andy May. 1 No confidence The new IPCC report came with the
remarkable claim that. that the present is warmer than the Middle Holocene BY
JAVIER VINÓS everal of the IPCC's Assessment Reports have been preceded by.
Стр.
... IPCC's Assessment Reports have been preceded by controversial new past
temperature reconstructions . The latest IPCC report , AR6 ( WG1 ) , includes
the surprising new position that present “ global surface temperatures are more
likely ...
Стр.
... IPCC once again has to cherry pick and massage proxy data in order to
fabricate it . Studies that show larger natural climate variations are ignored .
O Departures in temperature ( ° C ) from the 1961. ne of the big surprises of
the IPCC's ...
Стр.
... IPCC had claimed in 2018 that 100 % ( ! ) of the observed modern warming was
anthropogenic ( IPCC , 2018 ) .10 Natural climate factors play no significant
role , says the IPCC nowadays . This was a major shift for the IPCC because
only ...
Стр.
... ( IPCC , 2013 ) . As natural contributions to modern warming have been
essentially excluded , the IPCC opted for the second option to solve the dilemma
of the model vs. reality mismatch . Flattened pre - industrial temperatures
would ...
Стр.
... IPCC reports since 1998 , and in 2015 he even ran for the IPCC's
chairmanship , but was defeated by South Korean Hoesung Lee. Stocker appears to
have never been far.
Стр.
... IPCC's 3rd report in 2001, in which the Hockey Stick played a central role.
Twenty years later, the resurrected hockey stick comes from PAGES 2k (Fig. 4), a
group that is headquartered at the University of Bern, where Stocker chairs
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC also becomes clear in another example. e IPCC explicitly listed the
Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in a summary table in chapter 1
of the first order draft of the AR6 report. (Fig. 6). Period Little Ice Age (
LIA ) ...
Стр.
... IPCC process is to scientific bias . Cherry picking , misuse of the peer
review process , lack of transparency , and likely political interference have
led to a gross misrepresentation of the pre - industrial temperature
evolution ...
Стр.
... IPCC . ( 2018 ) . Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C. ( Masson - Delmotte , V.
, P. Zhai , H.-O. Portner , D. Roberts , J. Skea ,. a . T. Waterfield , Eds . )
Geneva : World Meteorological Organization . Retrieved from https://www.ipcc ...
Стр.
... IPCC introduced a fresh new blended dataset in AR6 that changed the positive
trend in the Rutgers dataset into a negative trend all year round. Is this new
picture really the best available science or does it mainly demonstrate bias
in ...
Стр.
... IPCC in chapter 2 only illustrates the decreasing trend for April ( i.e.
spring ) , where full agreement of all ... IPCC authors add ajudgmen and
explicitly favour the decreasing autumn SCE trend , because the increasing SCE
trend ...
Стр.
Marcel Crok, Andy May. ' anomalous ' . The IPCC concludes : " There is therefore
medium confidence that the NH ... IPCC visually emphasizes their preference by
replicating a figure from Mudryk et al . ( 2020 ) in the AR6 report : a ...
Стр.
... IPCC REPORTING The trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent are just
one of many examples of biased reporting in the IPCC AR6 report . The outcome of
the assessment is largely decided at the time when report authors are ...
Стр.
... IPCC's accelerating sea level rise seems to rely on " hybrid reconstructions
" that combine these disparate datasets and often include modeled data.1 1 2 >
The IPCC's AR6 makes the following specific claims about present future
global ...
Стр.
... IPCC's AR6 claims that sea level rise has been accelerating , or rising
faster and faster . 13 More specifically , the IPCC says that : four of the five
available tide gauge reconstructions that extend back to at least 1902 showed
a ...
Стр.
... IPCC graph. But what is not shown is that these tide gauge measurements
typically show multidecadal phases of acceleration and deceleration as is shown
in the following figure: If the IPCC had mentioned the period 1940 to 1980.
Figure 4 ...
Стр.
... IPCC , 2021 : Summary for Policymakers . In : Climate Change 2021 : The
Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4 IPCC AR6 Chapter 9
p ...
Стр.
... IPCC ( available here ) and compare its statements about the solar influence
on climate to the wide spectrum of peer - reviewed scientific literature . It is
expected that the regular IPCC reports are a thorough and balanced summary
of ...
Стр.
... IPCC to review this subject thoroughly and in great detail . Which climate
elements in which parts of the world , during which season show the greatest
link to solar activity changes ? What are the potential physical processes
behind ...
Стр.
... IPCC has progressively downgraded the sun IPCC reports have been issued
since 1990. In the second report , called SAR , the IPCC attributed a radiative
forcing value of +0.30 W / m2 to solar variability . The greater this value ,
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC allowed suitable solar amplifiers in their equations . ( b ) 1362.5
Lean ( 2000 ) -0.2 Matthes et al . ( 2017 ) Matthes et al . updated -0.15 1362
-0.1 1361.5 -0.05 1361 -0 --0.05 1360.5 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Figure 4 ...
Стр.
... IPCC has once again missed an opportunity to address natural climate drivers
in a balanced and fair way . Notably , AR5 argued cautiously that " more than
half " of the observed warming of the past 170 years was of anthropogenic
origin ...
Стр.
... IPCC must be revised , it is just a matter of time . The public should not
ignore the fact that the IPCC is a politically controlled organisation in which
the IPCC bureau handpicks authors and review editors . Scientists supporting
a ...
Стр.
... IPCC claimed a doubling of CO2 will give 3 ° C of warming with an
uncertainty range of 1.5 ° C to 4.5 ° C . In AR6 , based on one highly
influential paper , the best estimate for climate sensitivity remains 3 ° C but
they narrowed the ...
Стр.
... IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6) is similar to the one in the Charney
report, although the latter was based on very limited information. Van der
Sluijs (1998)5 considered the reasons why the range for climate sensitivity has
changed ...
Стр.
... IPCC was confronted with a dilemma : In our view , the IPCC WGI scientists
were saddled with a dilemma . How should they deal with the discrepancy between
climate sensitivity estimates based on models and sound observational
estimates ...
Стр.
... IPCC reports ( except the third assessment report in 2001 ) gave one as well
. In AR4 the best estimate was 3 ° C . At the time of approval of the SPM by
governments in September 2013 , the decision not to give a best estimate for ...
Стр.
... IPCC ' chose ' the ECS from climate models and discarded the observational
estimates . But this is not the case . In fact , the IPCC made it clear that
climate models ( i.e. GCM's ) were not used to directly estimate ECS . From
AR6 ...
Стр.
... IPCC report and this will remain so until at least the next IPCC report will
be published , but that will be only six or seven years from now . So , in the
coming years policy makers will all assume that a ' low ' climate sensitivity
is ...
Стр.
... IPCC, in AR6, decided that the best estimate for ECS is 3°C, so (almost)
double the value found by Lewis and Curry and far outside the likely range of
1.35-2.15°C of Lewis and Curry. So apparently, the IPCC has reasons to dismiss
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC community ! Most readers will probably have never heard about a pattern
effect ' , which is meant by ' the spatial pattern of surface warming ' in the
AR6 paragraph above . And it's rather complicated , so let's discuss it step
by ...
Стр.
... IPCC admitted there was evidence against a large ' pattern effect ' as
claimed by Andrews et al . 2018. Note that the findings of Mauritsen and Lewis
are called ' preliminary ' while such a word is not used for the Andrews
paper ...
Стр.
... IPCC , cloud feedback - is still inadequate , and our understanding of
natural climate change and natural climate ... IPCC view , that CO2 and other
greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the warming since the end of
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC - that all the warming since 1850 is due to anthropogenic greenhouse
gases . Even lower estimates have been published in the literature by Lindzen
and Choi ( 0.7 ) and Christy ( 1.1 ) but such estimates are ignored by the
IPCC ...
Стр.
... IPCC . ( 2013 ) . In T. Stocker , D. Qin , G.-K. Plattner , M. Tignor , S.
Allen , J. Boschung , . . . P. Midgley ... ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report / ar5
/ wg1 / WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf " , https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report ...
Стр.
... IPCC estimates that the world warmed around 1 ° C since 1850 , in a period
of 170 years . These scenarios suggest we will get another 3 to 4 ° C of warming
in just the next 80 years . This is a nightmare scenario for those who take
the ...
Стр.
... IPCC extreme scenarios is quite an understatement . The RCP8.5 and the
closely related SSP5-8.5 scenarios are - to use terminology of the IPCC itself -
extremely implausible and it is more than correct for the IPCC to point this
out ...
Стр.
... IPCC report (AR5) came out, the four RCPs were used without knowing what the
fictitious worlds behind the RCP's would look like, or if they were even
plausible futures. Nevertheless, the IPCC decided to use the highest of its
four ...
Стр.
... IPCC . After all it is highly policy relevant how their scenarios track with
reality in order to know where we are going . However , apart from a short
sentence about the likelihood , the IPCC said very little about the plausibility
of ...
Стр.
... IPCC reports . However , not only did IPCC ignore this paper , it also
ignored the advice . Roger Pielke Jr , a well - known climate and policy
scientist , in peer- reviewed papers , and summarized in his blog , documented
how often ...
Стр.
... IPCC , based on the implausible assumption of the explosive use of coal .
It's a scenario that you simply should not use to inform policy makers . However
, in AR6 it's the scenario that is used more than any other . How is this ...
Стр.
... IPCC. e coloured dots refer to several energy outlook scenarios of the
International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, BP and
ExxonMobil. e. real-world emissions follow the lower boundary of the grey area
closely ...
Стр.
... IPCC is not hesitant to use drafts of papers . But in this case they were
not eager to fully discuss this issue in the report . The IPCC doesn't seem to
be a big fan of the work of Roger Pielke Jr. Although Pielke Jr. has
published ...
Стр.
... IPCC had all the data and the literature available and should have
highlighted this good news . However , for ... IPCC reports are neutral , policy
- relevant but not policy - prescriptive . " Source : www.ipcc.ch 2 Z.
Hausfather ...
Стр.
... IPCC's work , the 6th Assessment Report from Working Group I , was released
on August 9th , 2021 . Modelled data for global and regional sea level
projections 2020-2150 are available from the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection
Tool.2 The IPCC ...
Стр.
... IPCC , most or all of the warming experienced since about 1850 is due to
man's activities . This IPCC finding is remarkable , as it downgrades the effect
of natural climatic variations to nearly zero since 1850 . It is therefore ...
Стр.
... IPCC ( the 6th Assessment Report from Working Group I ) . Presumably , the
startling recent IPCC finding that most or all of the warming experienced since
about 1850 is due to man's activities , may have led to modelling of an ...
Стр.
... IPCC , greenhouse gases have contributed most to an increase in radiative
forcing since 1750. Changes in the sun have contributed close to nothing ( for a
different perspective about that see our chapter 6 ) . The IPCC then
attributes ...
Стр.
... IPCC to greenhouse forcing. However, what is most remarkable, and goes
against most of the media coverage of extreme weather, is that for most extreme
weather phenomena, no trend is detected. is. is true for flooding, drought ...
Стр.
... IPCC outside its review process.” So, let's see if the IPCC will correct
this error. Ryan Maue published data on another metric, the so-called ACE,
Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It is a measure of the total energy involved in
tropical ...
Стр.
... IPCC , which is , or should be , politically neutral , gets the science
about this right . Here we have shown that in general the WG1 report did a
reasonably fair job , except for the Summary for Policy Makers . However , the
chapter ...
Стр.
... ipcc- report - 1e3 3
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-7/figure-7-6 4
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1424735415576104965 5 Klotzbach ,
Philip J. , et al . " Continental US hurricane landfall frequency and ...
Стр.
... ipcc-insider https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/misinformation-in-the-ipcc
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/trends-in-the-proportion-of-major 13
https://climatlas.com/tropical/ 14 Compound extreme events are the combination
of ...
Стр.
... IPCC , whose task it is to assess the available literature , completely
ignores all the published papers about ... IPCC acknowledges here that there is
one other study ( Weinkle ( 2018 ) ) that found no increase . Roger Pielke
Jr ...
Стр.
... IPCC . This raises a lot of questions of course . How could this happen ?
Who decided to do this ? Why didn't reviewers protest ? These questions are
beyond the scope of this chapter , in which we merely document the failure of
the IPCC ...
Стр.
... IPCC works according to a set of principles.16 The most important one is
this ( our bold ) : The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive ,
objective , open and transparent basis the scientific , technical and socio-
economic ...
Стр.
... IPCC . In 2010 there was a lot of criticism of the IPCC after several errors
were discovered , mainly in the fourth ( 2007 ) WG2 report . A well - known
error at the time was the claim that the Himalayan glaciers would be gone in
2035 ...
Стр.
... IPCC report . He wrote back that a senior US IPCC contributor had once told
him that " he would never be involved in IPCC ” . If the IAC - 12 years after
their review - were asked to do another review and they took the treatment
of ...
Стр.
... ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ 10 Kahn , M. , et al . , 2019 : Long - Term
Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change : A ...
ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/09/ipcc-principles.pdf 17 Climate change
assessments , review of the processes and ...
Стр.
... IPCC , again , chose to ignore it . W deaths.2 The key graph is figure 17 in
his paper. e are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator "
, said UN Secretary - General Antonio Guterres during his speech to de K ...
Стр.
... IPCC leaves out , than from what it includes . However , somehow the good
news did slip into the report , on page 2435 ( of 3068 ! ) the IPCC mentions a
paper by Formetta and Feijen which has the revealing title Empirical evidence
of ...
Стр.
... IPCC is aware of the EM - DAT database and Bjorn Lomborg is one of the most
visible public voices about climate . The IPCC deliberately chose to ignore this
good news . Looking at disaster losses and climate - related deaths the IPCC ...
Стр.
... IPCC and the writers and reviewers of the chapters herein . We find it
notable that this is a review of the sixth major IPCC Report on climate change
in the thirty - two years since the first IPCC report was published in March
1990. In ...
Стр.
... ipcc-sabotages-an-interacademy-recommendation/ 14 ( McKitrick , 2011 ) 15 (
Bates , 2020 ) 16 InterAcademy Council , 2010 , Climate change assessments ,
Review of the processes and procedures of the IPCC , Link :
http://intleval.cipa ...
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THE FROZEN CLIMATE VIEWS OF THE IPCC: AN ANALYSIS OF AR6

Авторы: Marcel Crok, Andy May
 

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