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UNCTAD: RED SEA CONFLICT ADDS INSULT TO GLOBAL TRADE’S INJURIES

by The Editorial Team
January 29, 2024
in Security


Credit: Shutterstock



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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that
escalating attacks on ships in the Red Sea are adding strain to shipping routes
already hit by conflict and climate change.

UNCTAD has raised profound concerns over escalating disruptions to global trade.
The Intergovernmental Body noted that recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea,
combined with geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Black Sea and the
impacts of climate change on the Panama Canal, have given rise to a complex
crisis affecting key trade routes.

UNCTAD’s head of trade logistics, Jan Hoffmann, outlined the organization’s
detailed analysis of the situation at the UN’s daily press briefing on 26
January. He underlined maritime transport’s critical role in international
trade, noting that it is responsible for approximately 80% of the global
movement of goods.

Disruptions in the Black Sea and Panama and Suez Canals


RELATEDNEWS


CENTCOM DEFEATS HOUTHI ATTACKS ON U.S. CARGO VESSELS


SURVEY FINDS GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY AS A MAJOR SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERN




The Suez Canal, a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red
Sea, handled approximately 12% to 15% of global trade in 2023. UNCTAD estimated
that the trade volume going through the Suez Canal decreased by 42% over the
last two months.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has also triggered substantial shifts in oil and
grain trades, reshaping established trade patterns. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal,
another key artery for global trade, is grappling with a severe drought that has
diminished water levels, resulting in a staggering 36% reduction in total
transits over the past month compared to a year ago. The long-term implications
of climate change on the canal’s capacity are raising concerns about enduring
impacts on global supply chains.

Container ship transits plummet as freight rates and emissions surge

The crisis in the Red Sea, marked by Houthi-led attacks disrupting shipping
routes, has added another layer of complexity. In response to the Red Sea
crisis, major players in the shipping industry have temporarily suspended Suez
transits. Notably, weekly container ship transits have plummeted by 67%. Tanker
transits and gas carriers are also experiencing significant declines.

Meanwhile, shipping prices are increasing. The $500 surge in the average
container spot freight rates during the last week of December was the highest
ever weekly increase.

Average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai have more than doubled
(+122%) since early December. More specifically, the rates from Shanghai to
Europe have more than tripled (+256%), while rates to the west coast of the
United States increased by 162%, although ships on this route do not go through
the Suez Canal.

Insurance premiums have also surged, compounding the overall cost of transit.
Additionally, ships rerouted from the Suez and Panama Canal routes are compelled
to travel faster to compensate for detours, burning more fuel per mile and
emitting more CO2, further exacerbating environmental concerns.

> Here we see the global impact of the crisis, as ships are seeking alternative
> routes

… said Jan Hoffmann, UNCTAD’s head of trade logistics

To remind, the UN Security Council adopted UN Security Council Resolution 2722
(2024) on 10 January 2024, stressing, among others, that the Security Council
condemns in the strongest terms the at least two dozen Houthi attacks on
merchant and commercial and demands that the Houthis immediately cease all such
attacks, which impede global commerce and undermine navigational rights and
freedoms as well as regional peace and security.

Global implications: Increases in energy and food prices

UNCTAD underscored the far-reaching economic implications of these disruptions.
Prolonged interruptions, particularly in container shipping, pose a direct
threat to global supply chains, raising the risk of delayed deliveries and
higher costs.

While current container rates are approximately half of the peak seen during the
COVID-19 crisis, it will take time for the higher prices to hit consumers, with
the full impact expected within a year.

Energy prices are witnessing a surge as gas transits are discontinued, directly
impacting energy supplies, especially in Europe, UNCTAD noted.

The crisis is also impacting global food prices, with longer distances and
higher freight rates potentially cascading into increased costs. Disruptions in
grain shipments from Europe, the Russian Federation and Ukraine pose risks to
global food security, affecting consumers and lowering the prices paid to
producers.

Finally, another significant issue has risen due to the Red Sea situation.
According to AFP, mounting maritime security threats off Yemen’s coast have
stalled work on scrapping oil tanker FSO Safer. 

Impact on developing countries and the need for collective action

The organization emphasized the urgent need for swift adaptations from the
shipping industry and robust international cooperation to navigate the rapid
reshaping of global trade dynamics.

The current challenges underscore trade’s vulnerability to geopolitical tensions
and climate-related challenges, demanding collective efforts for sustainable
solutions, especially in support of the countries more vulnerable to these
shocks, UNCTAD highlighted.

> Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, and
> UNCTAD remains vigilant in monitoring the evolving situation

… noted Jan Hoffmann

 


Tags: climate changeHouthisPanama CanalRed Seasecuritysupply chainUNCTAD



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COMMENTS 1

 1. Akari Minami says:
    1 month ago
    
    Absolutely! It’s essential for countries to collaborate on maritime security
    and climate strategies. Protecting shipping routes is crucial for smooth
    global trade and overall economic stability. Working together on these
    issues will help promote sustainable trade practices moving forward!
    
    Reply
    


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