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News
FTX discount sale of $1.9 billion in Solana faces creditor fury Coinbase stands
strong in consumer lawsuit as case is revived post-appeal Bitcoin’s growing
status as ‘digital gold’ set to attract new investors Even crypto friendly UK
banks freeze accounts in fear of crypto transactions BlackRock adds 5 new APs to
spot Bitcoin ETF including Goldman Sachs, Citadel, CitigroupFTX discount sale of
$1.9 billion in Solana faces creditor furyCoinbase stands strong in consumer
lawsuit as case is revived post-appealBitcoin’s growing status as ‘digital gold’
set to attract new investorsEven crypto friendly UK banks freeze accounts in
fear of crypto transactionsBlackRock adds 5 new APs to spot Bitcoin ETF
including Goldman Sachs, Citadel, CitigroupFTX discount sale of $1.9 billion in
Solana faces creditor furyCoinbase stands strong in consumer lawsuit as case is
revived post-appealBitcoin’s growing status as ‘digital gold’ set to attract new
investorsEven crypto friendly UK banks freeze accounts in fear of crypto
transactionsBlackRock adds 5 new APs to spot Bitcoin ETF including Goldman
Sachs, Citadel, Citigroup
If BlackRock continues 6k BTC daily buys we get a supply crunch within 18
months, here’s why Liam 'Akiba' Wright · 3 months ago · 7 min read
US ▸ Coinbase ▸ Bitcoin ▸ Analysis


IF BLACKROCK CONTINUES 6K BTC DAILY BUYS WE GET A SUPPLY CRUNCH WITHIN 18
MONTHS, HERE’S WHY

with insights from Glassnode

A fun exploration into why Bitcoin liquidity is not the same as other commodity
ETFs.

Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Jan. 18, 2024 at 7:14 pm UTC
7 min read

Updated: Jan. 18, 2024 at 7:25 pm UTC
X Telegram LinkedIn Email

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which
may include AI-generated content.

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Building on CryptoSlate’s recent analysis of the competing Bitcoin inflows and
outflows between BlackRock and Grayscale, I extrapolated the data even further
to see just how long BlackRock could sustain its current average Bitcoin
accumulation.

At a high level, BlackRock’s entry through Bitcoin ETFs is a substantial moment
for Bitcoin’s reputation in the United States. Along with the other ‘Newborn
Nine‘ ETFs, BlackRock’s endorsement is likely to decrease the liquid and very
liquid supplies as more investors gain access to Bitcoin as a long-term
investment. Further, it will increase investor confidence for those unfamiliar
with blockchain and enhance the credibility of Bitcoin as an asset class,
thereby affecting its liquidity and volatility profiles.

Before I go any further, I want to add a very clear disclaimer here. The
analysis below is a hypothetical look at possible accumulation levels from spot
Bitcoin ETFs. I have used the debut inflows for BlackRock as the yardstick.
There is no guarantee these levels will persist, and if they did, it would very
likely result in an increase in the price of Bitcoin. The demand for Bitcoin is
unlikely to remain consistent at any price, so assuming the same BTC inflows
over a prolonged period is improbable.

That said, looking at the numbers from a purely theoretical standpoint does
reveal some extremely headline-worthy data points, which can then be used
alongside other analyses to identify if and when a supply crunch is on the
horizon for Bitcoin.

The longer these new ETFs continue to acquire Bitcoin at these elevated levels,
the better for long-term HODLers and laser eyes.

In my opinion, now, more than ever, HODLing Bitcoin has a real purpose. The
fewer Bitcoins available for purchase inside ETFs, the closer we come to a MOASS
(Mother Of All Supply Squeezes) where Bitcoin moons, not because shorts have to
cover, but because institutions have to buy Bitcoin on the open market like the
rest of the world.


LIQUIDITY IN BITCOIN AND BLACKROCK’S IMMEDIATE IMPACT.

Since the debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US last week, BlackRock has acquired
an average of 6,266 BTC daily for a cumulative total of 25,067 BTC as of press
time. The total acquired by the Newborn Nine over just four trading days is now
at 70,000 BTC ($2.9 Billion.) When we include Grayscale, the total Bitcoin under
management is 660,540 BTC ($27.6 billion.)

To understand the analysis, I’ll first outline the buckets used, as defined by
Glassnode data.

> “The liquidity of an entity is defined as the ratio of cumulative outflows and
> cumulative inflows over the entity’s lifespan. An entity is considered to be
> illiquid / liquid / highly liquid if its liquidity L is ≲ 0.25 / 0.25 ≲ L ≲
> 0.75 / 0.75 ≲ L, respectively.”

More info on calculating L can be found on Glassnode’s blog.

 * Current Supply: The total number of bitcoins that have been mined and are
   currently in circulation.
 * Illiquid Supply: Bitcoins held in wallets without significant movement,
   suggesting a long-term investment strategy.
 * Liquid Supply: Bitcoins that are actively traded or spent, indicating higher
   market activity.
 * Very Liquid Supply: This category represents bitcoins that are not just
   traded but are readily available for trading on exchanges within a short
   timeframe.
 * Exchange Supply: Bitcoins held in exchange wallets, ready to be traded or
   sold.

The chart below shows the different liquidity cohorts for Bitcoin across time.
The illiquid supply is by far the largest sector. However, interestingly, the
highly liquid portion is greater than the liquid portion, indicating a dichotomy
among investors. Bitcoin holders are either hodlers or traders, with very few on
the fence about whether to hold or transact with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin liquidity supply (Source: Glassnode)

Now we understand the liquidity situation, let’s look at how the different
cohorts stack up. The official max supply of Bitcoin is 21,000,000 coins. The
current circulating supply is 19,600,000. According to Glassnode, the total
amount of lost coins is roughly 1,400,000; this includes Satoshi’s coins, among
others. There are other higher estimates of lost coins; however, given that this
number has remained relatively consistent since 2012, I think it is the most
reliable number.

Interestingly, this means that when we remove the lost coins from the maximum
supply, we end up with the same number as the current circulating supply. While
this is purely coincidental for this exact moment in time, it gives an idea of
how it will feel when all the coins have been mined, at least in terms of market
liquidity. Of course, after all coins are mined, the lack of block rewards for
miners will add another aspect to the mix I won’t get into right now. I will say
that I believe fees will be more than enough to continue to secure the network
given the current direction Bitcoin is heading in.

MetricValueMax Supply21,000,000Current Supply19,600,000Adj. Max
Supply19,600,000Adj. Current Supply18,200,000Illiquid Supply15,402,422Liquid
Supply1,306,262Very Liquid Supply2,892,486Exchange Balance2,360,087

The current supply can also be adjusted to remove lost coins. The three main
cohorts to analyze are the liquidity levels, as explained below, and the balance
of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges. The total liquid and very liquid coins amount to
just 4,198,748 BTC ($175 billion,) which accounts for around 21% of the $815
billion Bitcoin market cap.


WHAT IF BLACKROCK KEEPS BUYING UP ALL THE BITCOIN?

Now, for the fun part that you are all reading for What if BlackRock inflows
were to continue at the level seen during its debut? While some have bemoaned
the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a failure, and Bitcoin’s price has even
dropped to $0.0413 million from its recent high of nearly $49,000, I think they
will surely end up with the ‘egg on their face,’ as we say in the UK. Here’s
why!

Currently, 900 new Bitcoins are mined daily, and this will drop to 450 BTC
around April 18, 2024. Additionally, as I said previously, BlackRock is
acquiring around 6,266 BTC daily. If BlackRock were to attempt to buy directly
from miners, this would lead to a net deficit of 5,266 BTC.

So, it needs to get Bitcoin from somewhere else. So far, the Coinbase OTC desks
have had sufficient liquidity to soak up the requirement. However, this cannot
last forever; there is no endless liquidity. The table below shows what would
happen if BlackRock bought from each cohort with miner participation.

BlackRock Bitcoin inflow rate

At its current rate, over the next 10 days, BlackRock would achieve around
81,481 BTC with little to no significant impact on any cohort. So, the launch is
a failure?

I don’t think so.

If we extend this down to Sept. 6, 2024, and BlackRock is only buying from the
liquid supply, with miners adding to this cohort and reducing the impact, the
entire cohort would be absorbed.

BlackRock acquisition day 233

Let’s carry on.

To keep it nice and clear, each table going forward will be under the following
hypothetical scenario.

What if BlackRock bought exclusively from this cohort at the rate it has during
the first four days and newly mined Bitcoin was also included, thus reducing the
impact of BlackRock’s buying?

By March 3, 2025, the Bitcoin held on exchanges would be gone, and BlackRock
would have 2.6 million BTC.

Exchange balance absorbed.

The ‘very liquid’ cohort would be absorbed by June 6, 2025. This group is
probably the most easily accessible for BlackRock to find liquidity, and it is
still just 18 months away.

Very liquid supply absorbed.

In just eight years, by 2032, BlackRock’s Bitcoin holding would be worth $686
billion by today’s standards and consist of 16,404,391 BTC. This would require
it to have found a way to buy all of the Bitcoin from the ‘illiquid’ supply and
give it around 79% of all Bitcoin in circulation under management.

Illiquid supply absorbed

Finally, in just 3,073 short days, on June 16, 2032, BlackRock would have bought
all of the Bitcoin in circulation and finally have to stop its 6,266 BTC per day
purchase. Going forward, there would only be 113 BTC available each day from
newly mined Bitcoin, of which there would be 327,538 BTC left to mine.

BlackRock owns Bitcoin

Of course, few of the above scenarios are going to happen. BlackRock is unlikely
to be able to sustain these levels of inflows in Bitcoin terms without Bitcoin’s
price either falling significantly or demand increasing along with price.

Hypothetical Bitcoin supply absorbed by BlackRock

For example, 6,266 BTC is worth $262 million at $0.04184 million per Bitcoin. At
$0.2 million per Bitcoin, this amount becomes $1.25 billion daily. Conversely,
at $0.01, it is only $62.6 million.

So unless Bitcoin stays around $0.04 million for the next eight years, BlackRock
is able to convince investors to buy its ETF at the same pace, and it can find
HODLers willing to sell, we aren’t going to see BlackRock take custody of all
the Bitcoin.

However, we can now start to see what sort of an impact consistent Bitcoin ETF
inflows can have on different parts of the supply. Personally, my Bitcoin is
illiquid and remains that way. I see the benefits of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and I
also see the supply crunch that’s coming in some shape or form. Definitely not
today, probably not this quarter, but after that…

CryptoSlate will continue to dig into the numbers and nerd out on chain for you,
so if you enjoyed this exploration into Bitcoin supply, please let us know on
our X account @cryptoslate or reach out to me directly @akibablade. Also, shout
out to Samson Mow for the ‘M’ notation for Bitcoin!


FEATURED DATA PARTNER

MENTIONED IN THIS ARTICLE

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Trust
Posted In: Bitcoin, Coinbase, US, Analysis, ETF, Featured, Op-Ed
Author

LIAM 'AKIBA' WRIGHT

Senior Editor at CryptoSlate

Also known as "Akiba," Liam is a reporter, editor and podcast producer at
CryptoSlate. He believes that decentralized technology has the potential to make
widespread positive change.

@akibablade LinkedIn Email Liam
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CryptoSlate is a comprehensive and contextualized source for crypto news,
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Bitcoin BTC (24h)
$67,716.67 +0.07%
BTC
$ 69,762.0 (0.49%)
Last updated: Just now
USD Vol: $ 893.31 M

Mkt Cap: $ 1,372.68 B
All Vol: $ 12.65 B

Vol: $34.54B MCap: $1.33T

Bitcoin, a decentralized currency that defies the sway of central banks or
administrators, transacts electronically, circumventing intermediaries via a
peer-to-peer network.

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BLACKROCK

Asset Management Company in North America

BlackRock, synonymous with global asset management, is an American multinational
investment management corporation based in New York City.

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GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS

Asset Management, Bitcoin ETF Company in North America

Established in 2013 by Digital Currency Group, Grayscale Investments is a
trusted authority on digital currency investing and cryptocurrency asset
management.

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iShares Bitcoin Trust Bitcoin ETF

The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, known as the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), is an
investment fund that provides regulated exposure to Bitcoin for investors.

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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Bitcoin ETF

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a digital currency investment product that
provides investors with access to Bitcoin through traditional investment
channels.

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