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An article from
Deep Dive


HERE’S HOW CPGS ARE BRACING FOR MORE VOLATILITY IN 2023

After a year of rising inflation, war and supply chain disruptions, companies
are taking steps to prepare their operations to weather a period of prolonged
uncertainty.

Published Jan. 17, 2023
Christopher Doering Senior Reporter
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

Permission granted by Vita Coco

Editor’s note: This story is part of a series on the trends that will shape the
food and beverage industry in 2023.

For Mike Kirban, co-founder and executive chairman of coconut products giant
Vita Coco Company, uncertainty has been a consistent part of doing business. 

Early on, executives at Vita Coco, which traces the company’s roots to a cold
winter evening in 2003 at a New York City bar, had to convince people to buy its
product. Then they worked to keep up when demand soared.

The past few years have brought on a new set of challenges, with industry-wide
shipping costs soaring from $2,000 a container two years ago to more than
$10,000 at its peak last summer, and the availability of shipping containers
significantly throttling product availability.




Market conditions caused pineapple and mango puree shortages that impacted the
availability of some of Vita Coco’s flavored coconut water on store shelves last
summer. And for available products, it took longer for them to go from the
factory to its warehouse; taking three months at one point from the customary
two weeks. The elevated expenses sliced gross margins at Vita Coco nearly in
half last year, and led to two price increases.

“That's the beauty of these businesses. There's always a new challenge,” Kirban
said with a laugh from Vita Coco’s headquarters in New York City. “We've learned
a lot. We've gotten better at a lot of things to be able to survive through the
tough environment that we've [had] the last couple of years.”

He said Vita Coco, which also makes water packaged in aluminum cans, energy
drinks and protein-infused water along with its namesake coconut beverage, has
seen costs start to stabilize, though labor, packaging and ocean freight remain
high. The last few years have prompted Vita Coco to make changes to the way it
does business, spanning everything from how it sells and markets its products to
the strategy it uses for samples and innovation.


VOLATILITY REIGNS

Still, there’s mounting evidence that the challenges Vita Coco and other CPGs
are facing will remain in 2023 and may force further changes at companies
already facing one big hit after another.

Supply chain headaches, inflation, the ongoing war in Ukraine and surging input
costs have proven to be a test for even the most seasoned executive. Leaders in
the C-suite must now strategize how to plan for the future when there are few
answers or historical blueprints they can tap into for a guide.


Optional Caption
Permission granted by Del Monte Foods
 

Krishnakumar Davey, president of client engagement at IRI, recently discussed
procurement and supply chains with top CPG executives. He was surprised to hear
the rather dire outlook they gave for this year.

“They said ‘Look, [2023] is going to be as volatile as [last] year and the last
couple of years,’ ” Davey recalled. “I was quite taken aback by what they
said.” 




Neil Saunders, managing director with Global Data, agreed. He said most food and
beverage manufacturers are expecting 2023 to be “quite a difficult year ...
because the consumer is still under a lot of pressure.”

At Del Monte Foods, the manufacturer of canned vegetables and fruits, Contadina
tomato products and College Inn broths and stocks, is moving forward with what
CEO Greg Longstreet said will likely be its last round of price increases for a
while in February. 

But with costs for packaging, ingredients and transportation remaining elevated,
Del Monte Foods continues to look for ways to reduce expenses throughout its
supply chain and increase the attractiveness of its product to the consumer, he
said.

To do that, Del Monte has introduced more products whose price point resonates
with consumers looking for value and convenience, such as multi-packs of fruit
cups and canned vegetables. It's also more than doubled spending at its plants
during the past four years to increase speed and efficiency.

“For us to compete ... we have to be highly automated, high speed and efficient
to provide those units at a better value to the consumer,” Longstreet said.


MORE JOB CUTS AHEAD?

The wildcard for many companies is whether the country is headed into a
recession and how severe it becomes if it occurs.

A recession would place further pressure on consumers already dealing with more
expensive borrowing costs following a series of rate hikes from the Federal
Reserve and higher prices for everything from food and clothing to medical care
and travel. 




Reports last month that PepsiCo — widely seen as a bellwether — is planning to
cut hundreds of corporate jobs in North America could be a prelude to further
tightening at other food and beverage CPGs that have so far been largely immune
to shrinking payrolls that have impacted other sectors, economists said. It
could signal that even though price increases have helped offset rising
expenses, companies realize they need to do more to reign in costs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“When you look at the food industry compared to other industries, food has
always done relatively well. When you look at the total value, it will still be
there. People have to eat.”



Marcel Koks

Industry and solution strategy director, Infor

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It’s a sharp contrast to the economic climate during the pandemic when food
manufacturers were boosting their ranks to address elevated demand for products
as homebound consumers spent less time going out, traveling or working in the
office. While workers responsible for manufacturing the products should be
largely protected in the coming months, corporate America may not be unscathed.

“The pandemic was quite good for most food and beverage companies because they
saw a spike in consumer spending, and people were very carefree about hiring,”
Saunders said. “Now that position has reversed and people are starting to say,
‘Well, we need to consolidate. We need to look at whether all these roles are
necessary. We need to revisit some of the forecasts that we have.’ "


‘PEOPLE HAVE TO EAT’

Inflation data released last month by the U.S. government provided a glimpse of
the struggles CPG executives are facing. The Labor Department estimated for the
month of December that consumer prices for food at home rose 0.2% from
November, contributing to an 11.8% jump from the prior year. Overall, inflation
across all baskets of goods fell 0.1% in December, its biggest drop in nearly
three years.




Even if inflation eases from its multi-year high, prices are expected to remain
elevated compared to before the pandemic. Further price increases could still
work in certain product categories, but, for the most part, many consumers may
not be in a position to swallow larger ones on top of previous hikes implemented
in 2022.

Valerie Oswalt, a former Campbell Soup executive who took over as the CEO of
Kodiak Cakes in November, said the manufacturer of high-protein, whole-grain
pancakes, waffles, bars and baking mixes is keeping a close watch on everything
from demand for private label products to how often consumers are eating out.
She said the company is monitoring product volumes and working closely with its
suppliers and procurement team to drive efficiencies. 

“Our first job is to really try to drive productivity to offset the inflationary
headwinds,” Oswalt said. “You have to be very careful with your pricing” so you
don’t drive consumers away from your product.


Optional Caption
Christopher Doering/Food Dive
 

Davey said CPGs may attempt to cut costs by simplifying production through fewer
SKUs, cutting inputs — like something as simple as the number of bottle caps
they purchase to boost efficiency — scaling back on advertising or marketing,
and shrinkflation, a practice of reducing the contents of a package while
keeping the price the same.

He said food makers also could replace or reformulate ingredients that are
cheaper or more reliable, while incorporating more automation and artificial
intelligence into their operations.

“There’s always lots of opportunities ... CPGs are just getting started. There’s
still a lot of opportunities for them,” Davey said. “During the last two years,
they haven’t been cutting costs as much because CPGs and food have had some
really strong growth rates.”

With food and beverages an essential purchase for consumers, people may choose
to look for ways to save money within the category.

Saunders said these options could include shopping more at discount stores,
eliminating certain nonessentials, or trading down to cheaper offerings. Private
label, which has thrived in recent years, will remain in demand.

At the same time, premium offerings are expected to remain in demand as shoppers
take money saved from dining out less frequently to buy these products while
continuing to show a willingness to pay more for an item is higher quality and
has unique attributes. 

Despite the ongoing uncertainty plaguing the food and beverage space, the
category remains relatively stable compared to other industries such as
technology, manufacturing or retail, economists said. 

Marcel Koks, industry and solution strategy director at Infor where he works
with companies to adapt to the market, said while “disruption is the new
normal,” the food industry as a whole “has been a very stable” sector.  He noted
its resilience after recent recessions around 2001 and 2008.

“When you look at the food industry compared to other industries, food has
always done relatively well,” Koks said. “When you look at the total value, it
will still be there. People have to eat.”

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Filed Under: Manufacturing, Corporate Operations, Packaging / Labeling,
Beverages


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   U.S. SUPREME COURT WEIGHS IMPACT OF CALIFORNIA ANIMAL WELFARE LAW ON
   INDUSTRY, RETAIL PRICES
   
   The justices asked lawyers representing the pork industry and the state about
   the impact Proposition 12 will have on small producers and interstate
   commerce.
   
   By Chris Casey • Oct. 12, 2022
 * Explore the Trendline➔
   dropStock via Getty Images
   Trendline
   
   
   MATURATION OF THE PLANT-BASED MEAT CATEGORY
   
   While plant-based meat’s sales growth is slowing, investment and innovation
   in the space is continuing. There’s a lot coming into the space, from
   companies with new ideas to studies showing positive effects on
   sustainability.
   
   By Food Dive staff

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COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS

View all | Post a press release
Umami Meats and Steakholder Foods Receive SIIRD Grant of up to US$1.5 Million
for Collaborativ…
From Umami Meats
January 04, 2023
Mintec and Urner Barry combine to create a market leading Price Reporting Agency
(PRA) and Dat…
From Mintec
January 10, 2023
Treeline's Top Rated Cashew Cream Cheese Now In Single Serving Snack Packs
From Treeline Cheesemakers
January 11, 2023
Editors' picks
 * Chris Casey/Food Dive
   
   
   U.S. SUPREME COURT WEIGHS IMPACT OF CALIFORNIA ANIMAL WELFARE LAW ON
   INDUSTRY, RETAIL PRICES
   
   The justices asked lawyers representing the pork industry and the state about
   the impact Proposition 12 will have on small producers and interstate
   commerce.
   
   By Chris Casey • Oct. 12, 2022
 * Explore the Trendline➔
   dropStock via Getty Images
   Trendline
   
   
   MATURATION OF THE PLANT-BASED MEAT CATEGORY
   
   While plant-based meat’s sales growth is slowing, investment and innovation
   in the space is continuing. There’s a lot coming into the space, from
   companies with new ideas to studies showing positive effects on
   sustainability.
   
   By Food Dive staff

Latest in Manufacturing
 * Here’s how CPGs are bracing for more volatility in 2023
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 * No Meat Factory raises $42M to expand plant-based protein manufacturing
   By Megan Poinski
 * Tyson adds 150 more jobs to Illinois plant expansion
   By Chris Casey
 * Mondelēz launches new strategies to refresh iconic Toblerone and Milka brands
   By Christopher Doering

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