www.washingtonpost.com Open in urlscan Pro
23.37.45.67  Public Scan

Form analysis
2 forms found in the DOM

<form class="wpds-c-gRPFSl wpds-c-gRPFSl-jGNYrR-isSlim-false">
  <div class="transition-all duration-200 ease-in-out"><button type="submit" data-qa="sc-newsletter-signup-button" class="wpds-c-kSOqLF wpds-c-kSOqLF-uTUwn-variant-primary wpds-c-kSOqLF-eHdizY-density-default wpds-c-kSOqLF-ejCoEP-icon-left">Sign
      up</button></div>
</form>

<form class="wpds-c-gRPFSl wpds-c-gRPFSl-jGNYrR-isSlim-false">
  <div class="transition-all duration-200 ease-in-out"><button type="submit" data-qa="sc-newsletter-signup-button" class="wpds-c-kSOqLF wpds-c-kSOqLF-uTUwn-variant-primary wpds-c-kSOqLF-eHdizY-density-default wpds-c-kSOqLF-ejCoEP-icon-left">Sign
      up</button></div>
</form>

Text Content

Accessibility statementSkip to main content

Democracy Dies in Darkness
SubscribeSign in
ClimateEnvironment Weather Climate Solutions Climate Lab Green Living Business
of Climate
ClimateEnvironment Weather Climate Solutions Climate Lab Green Living Business
of Climate


MORE AMERICANS ARE MOVING INTO FLOOD AND FIRE HOT SPOTS


MORE THAN 300,000 AMERICANS MOVED TO FLOOD- OR FIRE-PRONE COUNTIES LAST YEAR,
ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE REAL ESTATE COMPANY REDFIN.

9 min
558
Sorry, a summary is not available for this article at this time. Please try
again later.

An American flag survives the wrath of Hurricane Ian in September 2022 at a
mobile home park in San Carlos Island, Fla., that suffered significant damage.
(Octavio Jones for The Washington Post)
By Sarah Kaplan
August 5, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

As he looked at the Atlantic Ocean through the condo unit’s bedroom window, the
sparkling blue water almost close enough to touch, Ed Morman knew this was where
he wanted to spend the rest of his life.

The 51-year-old was aware it might be risky moving to a barrier island on
Florida’s Atlantic Coast, where relative sea levels have risen more than half a
foot since 2010, according to a Washington Post analysis of tide gauge data. But
the condo in Satellite Beach had everything else Morman and his wife were
looking for: Warm weather. A welcoming community. A price they could afford in a
place where they could one day retire.



He turned to the real estate agent and said, “Yeah, we’re making an offer.”

Advertisement

Story continues below advertisement



Morman and his wife moved from their Washington apartment to the Satellite Beach
condo in February 2023. They are among more than 300,000 Americans who moved to
flood- or fire-prone counties last year, despite the growing threat posed by
climate change, according to a report from the real estate company Redfin.

Drawing on data from the Census Bureau and the First Street Foundation, a
nonprofit that assesses climate risk, the Redfin analysis showed that the
counties most exposed to floods and fires gained more population than they lost
between July 2022 and July 2023 — a continuation of a years-long trend of
Americans disproportionately relocating to climate-vulnerable areas.

But the report, provided exclusively to The Post, also revealed hints that
migration patterns might be shifting. In fire-prone California, the highest-risk
counties had a net outflow of nearly 7,000 people. And the net inflow to the
nation’s high-flood-risk counties fell dramatically — a net population increase
of just 16,144 last year after gaining 383,656 people between 2021 and 2022.

Advertisement

Story continues below advertisement



Coming amid a summer of record heat, raging wildfires and a hurricane season
that is projected to be among the worst in decades, the results suggest that
climate change may be starting to hit home for Americans in a new way, said
Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa.

🌱

Follow Climate & environment

Follow

“In this new world, this new regime that we live in, maybe people are changing
their behavior a bit,” he said.


AFFORDABILITY LIKELY DRIVES GROWTH IN RISKY AREAS



As fossil fuel burning and other human activities raise global temperatures,
huge swaths of the country face multiplying risks from hurricanes, wildfires and
other forms of extreme weather. Last year, the country experienced 28 disasters
that each cost $1 billion or more — a record high.

To assess how many people have moved into the path of potential climate
catastrophe, Redfin examined year-over-year population changes in the riskiest
10 percent of counties for both flood and fire. The analysis drew on property
ratings from the First Street Foundation, which scores individual properties
based on their vulnerability to extreme weather.

In the counties that Redfin designated as high risk for floods, at least 24
percent of properties faced “major,” “severe” or “extreme” risk of inundation
now and in a warmer world. In counties with a high fire risk, fire posed at
least a major threat to more than 62 percent of homes.

Both kinds of risky counties gained thousands of residents last year, the Redfin
analysis showed — even as the remaining 90 percent of low-risk areas saw a net
outflow of people.



Much of that net flow was driven by migration to Texas and Florida, the Redfin
analysis showed. The two states accounted for more than a quarter of the 378
flood-and fire-prone counties that gained population last year, with the largest
gains in Fort Bend County, Tex., and Brevard County, Fla.

People are probably drawn to those states for their relative affordability and
greater availability of housing, de la Campa said. Texas and Florida have
relatively low property taxes and led the country in construction of housing
units last year.

“At the end of the day, [home buyers] are looking at dollars and cents,” said
Rafael Corrales, a Redfin senior agent who has worked in Miami’s real estate
industry for 15 years. “That outweighs the risks.”


A POSSIBLE SHIFT IN FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS



But as weather disasters strike communities with escalating frequency and
ferocity, experts say that climate change is becoming a financial consideration
for people looking for a new home.

Increased claims and evolving risks have contributed to insurance companies
raising premiums in many climate-vulnerable areas. In some of the hardest-hit
states, such as California and Florida, providers are pulling out altogether.

Corrales said he is working with a growing number of sellers who say rising
insurance rates made it impossible for them to stay in their homes. Other agents
have had potential buyers back out from a deal after realizing they couldn’t
afford to pay such high premiums, de la Campa said.



This phenomenon might help explain why people are moving out of California’s
most fire-prone counties, said Patty Hernandez, director of the community
development nonprofit Headwaters Economics. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the
Redfin report showed, California’s Ventura, Santa Cruz and Solano counties —
where more than two-thirds of homes are at risk from wildfires — saw a net loss
of more than 12,000 people.

In these fire-risky areas, Hernandez said, many prospective home buyers struggle
to afford the expensive insurance that is required for them to obtain a
federally backed mortgage. Residents may decide to move if their premiums go up
or their policies aren’t renewed. Even renters are seeing higher prices as
building owners pass on the increased cost of insurance to tenants.

“It’s that indirect relationship where risk is affecting housing costs, and, in
turn, that’s affecting where people can live,” she said.

Advertisement

Story continues below advertisement



A lack of adequate insurance may also play a role in pushing people out of
communities after disasters, Hernandez added, especially as construction costs
hit record highs in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. She pointed to the
aftermath of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, where many residents discovered
their insurance payouts couldn’t cover the cost of rebuilding.

Of the 10 fire-risky counties with the largest population declines last year,
five were in California, the Redfin analysis showed. Boulder County — where the
Marshall Fire destroyed more than 1,000 structures — was ranked fourth.


AWARENESS OF CLIMATE RISKS GROWS



Redfin’s analysis can’t fully explain where and why people decide to move, de la
Campa said. And even in risky areas that have seen major population decreases,
climate change may not factor into the equation.

The high-risk counties that experienced the biggest losses were Kings County,
which encompasses the borough of Brooklyn, and Miami-Dade County in Florida.
These places, with their high costs of living, have seen many residents relocate
because of the increased availability of remote work.

Yet data from the third-biggest loser — Harris County, Tex., which encompasses
the Houston metro area — indicates that people are responding to climate risks,
de la Campa said. Housing prices in Houston are lower than in neighboring
counties, according to Redfin. But the city has been battered by consecutive
climate disasters, culminating in Hurricane Beryl this summer, which left more
than 1 million people without power and huge swaths of the city underwater.

“That intimates to me it is not solely a price story anymore,” de la Campa said.
“People are starting to think about things beyond just moving to the places that
have the lowest prices.”

In Miami, as well, where 39 percent of homes face a major flood risk, Corrales
has noticed a shift in how his clients think about climate hazards.

“The primary question that gets posed when dealing with an out-of-state or
international buyer is the flood risk associated with that region or that
neighborhood,” he said.

Advertisement

Story continues below advertisement



Other research suggests that movers are seeking out less vulnerable homes, even
if they live in generally risky areas. In a study published in the journal
Nature Communications in December, First Street Foundation scientists found that
3.2 million people had left neighborhoods that had exceptionally high flood risk
— often to find safer ground within the same city or region.

“Only about 15 percent of residential mobility is across state lines,” said
Jeremy Porter, First Street’s head of climate implications research. “But when
you look at hyperlocal population changes … you see people are already
responding to climate risk and there’s a lot of local knowledge that goes into
that.”

Redfin has also found that users ended up bidding on less risky homes after
being given access to flood data. The company publishes fire, heat, drought,
flood and storm data for almost every U.S. home that it lists.

Morman said he and his wife tried to mitigate risk in their move from Washington
to the Florida coast last year. They picked a condo building that was protected
by well-maintained dunes and had gotten top scores on a recent safety
inspection. They also made upgrades to their unit, such as installing modern
storm doors.

“We want a place that’s going to be here for the next 50 years,” he said.

Others may want to harden their homes and communities against climate disasters
but lack the resources to do it, Hernandez said.

She pointed to a Headwaters analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data
published last week, which found that demand for funding from the agency’s
flagship climate resilience program was nearly six times the amount of money
available.

The challenging reality, Hernandez added, is that millions of people already
live in the crosshairs of climate hazards — and the roster of risky places will
only expand as the planet continues to warm.

“It’s hard to find a place where there isn’t a risk of climate disaster,” she
said. “We need leadership and investment to avoid disasters by building
communities that are prepared.”

John Muyskens and Emily Guskin contributed to this report.


MORE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Understanding our climate: Global warming is a real phenomenon, and weather
disasters are undeniably linked to it. As temperatures rise, heat waves are more
often sweeping the globe — and parts of the world are becoming too hot to
survive.

What can be done? The Post is tracking a variety of climate solutions, as well
as the Biden administration’s actions on environmental issues. It can feel
overwhelming facing the impacts of climate change, but there are ways to cope
with climate anxiety.

Inventive solutions: Some people have built off-the-grid homes from trash to
stand up to a changing climate. As seas rise, others are exploring how to
harness marine energy.

What about your role in climate change? Our climate coach Michael J. Coren is
answering questions about environmental choices in our everyday lives. Submit
yours here. You can also sign up for our Climate Coach newsletter.



Share
558 Comments
Climate change and global warming
HAND CURATED
 * Pollution fueling a sex imbalance among endangered green sea turtles
   November 26, 2023
   
   Pollution fueling a sex imbalance among endangered green sea turtles
   November 26, 2023
 * This Fox News host gives climate skeptics airtime but went solar at home
   October 25, 2023
   
   This Fox News host gives climate skeptics airtime but went solar at home
   October 25, 2023
 * How humans have altered the Earth enough to start a new chapter of geologic
   time
   June 20, 2023
   
   How humans have altered the Earth enough to start a new chapter of geologic
   time
   June 20, 2023

View 3 more stories

NewsletterTUESDAYS
Climate Coach
Climate Coach Michael Coren advises you on how to navigate life on our changing
planet. Delivered Tuesdays.
Sign up

Subscribe to comment and get the full experience. Choose your plan →



NewsletterTUESDAYS
Climate Coach
Climate Coach Michael Coren advises you on how to navigate life on our changing
planet. Delivered Tuesdays.
Sign up
Company
About The Post Newsroom Policies & Standards Diversity & Inclusion Careers Media
& Community Relations WP Creative Group Accessibility Statement Sitemap
Get The Post
Become a Subscriber Gift Subscriptions Mobile & Apps Newsletters & Alerts
Washington Post Live Reprints & Permissions Post Store Books & E-Books Today’s
Paper Public Notices
Contact Us
Contact the Newsroom Contact Customer Care Contact the Opinions Team Advertise
Licensing & Syndication Request a Correction Send a News Tip Report a
Vulnerability
Terms of Use
Digital Products Terms of Sale Print Products Terms of Sale Terms of Service
Privacy Policy Cookie Settings Submissions & Discussion Policy RSS Terms of
Service Ad Choices
washingtonpost.com © 1996-2024 The Washington Post
 * washingtonpost.com
 * © 1996-2024 The Washington Post
 * About The Post
 * Contact the Newsroom
 * Contact Customer Care
 * Request a Correction
 * Send a News Tip
 * Report a Vulnerability
 * Download the Washington Post App
 * Policies & Standards
 * Terms of Service
 * Privacy Policy
 * Cookie Settings
 * Print Products Terms of Sale
 * Digital Products Terms of Sale
 * Submissions & Discussion Policy
 * Sitemap
 * RSS Terms of Service
 * Ad Choices









WE CARE ABOUT YOUR PRIVACY

We and our 43 partners store and/or access information on a device, such as
unique IDs in cookies to process personal data. You may accept or manage your
choices by clicking below, including your right to object where legitimate
interest is used, or at any time in the privacy policy page. These choices will
be signaled to our partners and will not affect browsing data.

If you click “I accept,” in addition to processing data using cookies and
similar technologies for the purposes to the right, you also agree we may
process the profile information you provide and your interactions with our
surveys and other interactive content for personalized advertising.

If you do not accept, we will process cookies and associated data for strictly
necessary purposes and process non-cookie data as set forth in our Privacy
Policy (consistent with law and, if applicable, other choices you have made).


WE AND OUR PARTNERS PROCESS COOKIE DATA TO PROVIDE:

Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Create profiles for
personalised advertising. Use profiles to select personalised advertising.
Create profiles to personalise content. Use profiles to select personalised
content. Measure advertising performance. Measure content performance.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different
sources. Develop and improve services. Store and/or access information on a
device. Use limited data to select content. Use limited data to select
advertising. List of Partners (vendors)

I Accept Reject All Show Purposes