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 * U.S. Economy
 * Top News




U.S. ECONOMY REVS UP IN Q3 WITH 4.9% ANNUALIZED GROWTH, BEATING CONSENSUS

Oct. 26, 2023 8:31 AM ETBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor195 Comments

Darren415

U.S.'s Q3 rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, exceeding the +4.2% expected and
powering up from the 2.1% advance in Q2, and reflecting the strongest quarter
since Q4 2021, the U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday.

The increase was driven by consumer spending, private inventory investment
(i.e., businesses stocking up), exports, state and local government spending,
and residential fixed investment (i.e., homes), partly offset by a decrease in
nonresidential fixed investment (business equipment and structures) and imports.

Consumers spent on both services and goods during the quarter, according to the
Commerce Department's first estimate of Q3 GDP. Within services, spending rose
in housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and
food services and accommodations.

On the goods side, spending rose in nondurable goods, led by prescription drugs,
and recreational vehicles.

In premarket trading, stock futures pared losses in Thursday trading. The S&P
futures slipped 0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, and Dow futures -0.1%. The 10-year Treasury
yield fell 4 basis points to 4.92% and the 2-year Treasury yield fell 5 bps to
5.09%.

Real disposable personal income, which adjusts for inflation, fell 1.0% during
the quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.5% in Q2.

The personal saving rate slipped to 3.8% from 5.2% in the prior quarter, the
Commerce Department said.

Q3 PCE price index: +2.9% vs. +2.5% in Q2.

Core PCE price index: +2.4% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.7% prior.

Personal consumption expenditures: +4.0% vs. +4.1% expected and +0.8% prior.

There's no guarantee the U.S. economic momentum will continue apace as it's
facing a number of risks.



"The economy has continued to defy expectations for a recession or more
substantial slowdown over much of the past two years," said Mark Hamrick, senior
economic analyst at Bankrate. "It faces substantial headwinds including the
recent surge in yields and the Federal Reserve’s intention to maintain tight
monetary policy, as well as the prospect of a partial federal government
shutdown in mid-November."


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 * Tensions Run High Ahead Of ECB Meeting And U.S. Q3 GDP
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COMMENTS (195)

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Value Digger
26 Oct. 2023, 8:48 AM
Investing Group LeaderPremium
Comments (12.95K)
|
+ Follow
Based on this strong growth, another interest rate hike by year end is a sure
thing.
ReplyLike(4)
M
2MuchDebt
26 Oct. 2023, 9:01 AM
Investing Group
Comments (1.41K)
|
+ Follow
@Value Digger I think you're getting ahead of yourself. November Fed meeting is
currently a 100% chance of no hike and December Fed meeting is currently a 75.5%
chance of no hike according to Fed Fund futures.



The consumer strength in Q3 was from dipping into savings as detailed from the
news release below. It's not a sustainable strength. Real personal income
declined and savings rate dropped 1.4 percentage points.



"Real disposable personal income, which adjusts for inflation, fell 1.0% during
the quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.5% in Q2. The personal saving rate
slipped to 3.8% from 5.2% in the prior quarter."
ReplyLike(4)
Off His Game
26 Oct. 2023, 9:07 AM
AnalystPremium
Comments (3.68K)
|
+ Follow
@Value Digger 2.4% inflation core says not likely. 50% of hikes having impacted
the economy yet.
ReplyLike(1)
M
2MuchDebt
26 Oct. 2023, 12:48 PM
Investing Group
Comments (1.41K)
|
+ Follow
@Value Digger Also keep in mind consumers need to deal with federal student loan
payments starting up again after a 3-year hiatus in early October 2023. This
along with the likely non-repeat in strong inventory investment in Q3 will cause
much slower GDP growth in Q4.
ReplyLike(1)
See More Replies
Joni D
26 Oct. 2023, 8:47 AM
Investing Group
Comments (484)
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What is driving this spike? AI?
ReplyLike
h
hkimsey
26 Oct. 2023, 8:58 AM
Investing Group
Comments (452)
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+ Follow
@Joni D the federal govt spends money like a drunk sailor, driving up inflation.
ReplyLike(10)
Kevin Sloan
26 Oct. 2023, 9:11 AM
Comments (1.49K)
|
+ Follow
@hkimsey That doesnt' make any sense.....that is not correct
ReplyLike(2)
ckarabin
26 Oct. 2023, 9:32 AM
Investing Group
Comments (33.57K)
|
+ Follow
@Joni D Business investment growth was zippo. So the answer to that is "no".
ReplyLike(1)
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Money&Money,LLC
26 Oct. 2023, 8:46 AM
Comments (3.04K)
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10/yr rates going to 5.5%, and 20/yr to 6.5%...Lets go Joe!
ReplyLike(6)
Dark Samus
26 Oct. 2023, 11:23 AM
Comments (901)
|
+ Follow
@Money&Money,LLC more like joe go to prison
ReplyLike(1)
Money&Money,LLC
26 Oct. 2023, 8:44 AM
Comments (3.04K)
|
+ Follow
WOW... At this rate Inflation will not get below 3% until 2075
ReplyLike(11)
t
tlapp
26 Oct. 2023, 8:42 AM
Comments (5.86K)
|
+ Follow
Funding 2 wars.
ReplyLike(11)
d
dandroidz
26 Oct. 2023, 8:48 AM
Investing Group
Comments (7.43K)
|
+ Follow
@tlapp with young Americans we cant afford to lose. The few actual males we have
left shouldnt have to fight for Israel or Ukraine....
ReplyLike(8)
It is a Top
26 Oct. 2023, 11:59 AM
Investing Group
Comments (3.73K)
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@tlapp
"Funding 2 wars."



Still cheaper than the last two war Republicans got us in.
ReplyLike(2)
t
tlapp
26 Oct. 2023, 3:23 PM
Comments (5.86K)
|
+ Follow
@It is a Top Government spending now at % of GDP equal to WWII. 2nd Highest in
history. Stop with partisan garbage and go with data and you won't look so
foolish.
ReplyLike(5)
See More Replies
S
ShadyyyyTrades
26 Oct. 2023, 8:42 AM
Premium
Comments (84)
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Isn’t 2.4% increase on core Pce close enough to their 2% objective!?!?!



Stop this nonsense before we destroy the economy.
ReplyLike(9)
Shamanski
26 Oct. 2023, 8:47 AM
Premium
Comments (5.03K)
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+ Follow
@ShadyyyyTrades
yes and that is why people think the hiking cycle is over and they will be able
to cut if/when needed.
ReplyLike(7)
d
dandroidz
26 Oct. 2023, 8:48 AM
Investing Group
Comments (7.43K)
|
+ Follow
@ShadyyyyTrades beg
ReplyLike
ckarabin
26 Oct. 2023, 9:33 AM
Investing Group
Comments (33.57K)
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@ShadyyyyTrades Why are you looking only at core? Do you heat your house and eat
food too? Then the core does not represent your total spending
ReplyLike(6)
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Charles St
26 Oct. 2023, 8:39 AM
Comments (590)
|
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Can you say, "higher for longer"? I know you can.
ReplyLike(7)
StevenK1
26 Oct. 2023, 8:38 AM
Premium
Comments (2.62K)
|
+ Follow
Here comes 1994.



Darn auto-correct. Meant 2024.
ReplyLike(2)
Ron Reed
26 Oct. 2023, 9:02 AM
Comments (880)
|
+ Follow
@StevenK1 :)
Oh that quote just spread across the office...I just can't help it!!
ReplyLike(1)
StevenK1
26 Oct. 2023, 9:09 AM
Premium
Comments (2.62K)
|
+ Follow
@Ron Reed ...intentional mistakes are like that. ;)
ReplyLike
M
Miwicz
26 Oct. 2023, 8:37 AM
PremiumInvesting Group
Comments (2.03K)
|
+ Follow
Is this good news or bad news?
ReplyLike
C
Chanutan
26 Oct. 2023, 8:39 AM
Investing Group
Comments (508)
|
+ Follow
@Miwicz It is great news and really you shouldn't bet against the USA. Despite
higher rates, we are still growing, which is a testament to a resilient economy.
Unfortunately, the bears will push a higher for longer narrative, so good news
is bad news, but this is not recessionary. This is how you get a soft landing.
ReplyLike(14)
M
Miwicz
26 Oct. 2023, 8:46 AM
PremiumInvesting Group
Comments (2.03K)
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+ Follow
@Chanutan so commodities & oil about to moon. Got it
ReplyLike(1)
John McCoy
26 Oct. 2023, 8:57 AM
Comments (1.76K)
|
+ Follow
@Chanutan Correct. Good economic news is always good, regardless of whatever the
bear narrative of the day is. It's getting harder and hard for the bears to keep
moving those recessionary goalposts!
ReplyLike(4)
See More Replies
w
wind55
26 Oct. 2023, 8:37 AM
Investing Group
Comments (481)
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They call a GDP that is 1/2 real inflation revving up?
ReplyLike
John Silcox
27 Oct. 2023, 3:01 AM
Investing Group
Comments (1.52K)
|
+ Follow
@wind55



The number is inflation adjusted.
ReplyLike(1)
w
wind55
27 Oct. 2023, 6:41 AM
Investing Group
Comments (481)
|
+ Follow
@John Silcox key word is REAL inflation.
ReplyLike(2)
elwalle
26 Oct. 2023, 8:36 AM
PremiumInvesting Group
Comments (4.33K)
|
+ Follow
Recession= no chance
Stagflation = can't miss
ReplyLike(1)
Shamanski
26 Oct. 2023, 8:47 AM
Premium
Comments (5.03K)
|
+ Follow
@elwalle
stagflation with 4.9% growth?
you might want to look up what stagflation means



Core PCE came in at 0.1% mom last month and the past 5-6 months it has been at
the FED's target, if anything we have lowering inflation and high growth.
ReplyLike(10)
Off His Game
26 Oct. 2023, 9:09 AM
AnalystPremium
Comments (3.68K)
|
+ Follow
@Shamanski Lots on here take a conclusion and try to work backwards to get what
they want(in many cases bad news/a crash). The data is quite good.
ReplyLike(1)
Shamanski
26 Oct. 2023, 9:14 AM
Premium
Comments (5.03K)
|
+ Follow
@Off His Game
yea agreed.
I still think there will be a slow down due to the effects of high rates, but I
think the FED will be able to cut. I doubt they will do nothing if the economy
looks recessionary. I am still going for the soft landing.
ReplyLike(1)
Shamanski
26 Oct. 2023, 8:35 AM
Premium
Comments (5.03K)
|
+ Follow
Oh Baby !
Joe Biden has America booming like never before. Trump never put up numbers this
good ever, and he blew up the deficit every year.



Bidenomics is working brilliantly.
the Inflation reduction act has lowered inflation and core PCE came in at 0.1%
MoM last month
Biden has lowered the deficit substantially from the massive Trump deficit he
inherited.



America is by far the strongest country in the world by a large margin. Thanks
Joe !
ReplyLike(9)
w
wind55
26 Oct. 2023, 8:45 AM
Investing Group
Comments (481)
|
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@Shamanski LOL
ReplyLike(3)
R
Robin Campbell
26 Oct. 2023, 8:59 AM
Investing Group
Comments (1.44K)
|
+ Follow
@Shamanski Please save this kind of commentary for the political discussion
page, or maybe FOX. Thanks.
ReplyLike(1)
FIRE With Bitcoin
26 Oct. 2023, 9:15 AM
PremiumInvesting Group
Comments (14.16K)
|
+ Follow
@Shamanski Simple math GOP don't understand. Biden is the true MAGA PRESIDENT
ReplyLike(2)
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S
Sharpe Ratio
26 Oct. 2023, 8:33 AM
Investing Group
Comments (254)
|
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Here comes another rate hike
ReplyLike(24)
C
Chanutan
26 Oct. 2023, 8:46 AM
Investing Group
Comments (508)
|
+ Follow
@Sharpe Ratio Fed is done with hikes, and really they should be talking about
cuts.
ReplyLike(3)
Energysystems
26 Oct. 2023, 8:49 AM
Investing Group
Comments (3.96K)
|
+ Follow
@Chanutan Cuts? Why? The rates today aren't really slowing things down. Cuts
would lead to hyperinflation.
ReplyLike(2)
C
Chanutan
26 Oct. 2023, 8:57 AM
Investing Group
Comments (508)
|
+ Follow
@Energysystems inflation is history, the fed has done its job. Inflation is very
near their 2% goal, and with lags not yet worked into the economy, they have
already scored a touchdown. They will need to cut (and they will cut) sooner
than everyone expects. The fed has a long track record of doing something
different than they say.
ReplyLike(3)
See More Replies
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