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DON'T WANT A RECESSION? ROOT AGAINST THE PHILLIES IN THE WORLD SERIES

Derek Saul
Forbes Staff
I cover breaking news with a focus on markets and sports business.
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Oct 26, 2022,09:36am EDT|

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TOPLINE

There may be an answer by next week on whether or not the limping U.S. economy
will enter a recession, according to one historically reliable indicator: a
Philadelphia World Series title.




A Phillies World Series win could throw cold water on the economy.

Getty Images



KEY FACTS

The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Houston Astros in the MLB’s
championship round beginning Friday.



Philadelphia’s last four World Series wins, the first two won by the Athletics
when they played in the city and the latter won by the Phillies, coincided with
recessions: the Athletics’ 1929 and 1930 titles came in the early stages of the
Great Depression, while the Phillies’ 1980 win came amid the energy-crisis
fueled downturn and 2008 title during the worst of the Great Recession.



PROMOTED



Considering major stock indexes are set for their worst performances in over a
decade and the U.S. economy has contracted for consecutive quarters, a 2022
Phillies title may add to that dubious distinction.




Luckily for bulls, oddsmakers consider the Astros the heavy favorite, with
FanDuel Sportsbook giving the Phillies 38% implied odds of winning the World
Series – eerily similar to the 35% chance Goldman Sachs economists gave the U.S.
economy of plunging into a recession in a weekend note (Goldman didn’t cite
baseball in their rationale, but rather more mundane economic analysis).

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KEY BACKGROUND

It may seem silly resting your recession expectation laurels on the World
Series’ outcome, but it’s fitting considering baseball is a sport steeped in a
history of superstition. The Phillies snuck into the playoffs by securing the
National League’s last wildcard spot, winning just 87 games in the regular
season, compared to the Astros’ 106 wins. Despite their records, Philadelphia
toppling Houston would be far from David slaying Goliath:The Phillies’ $172
million payroll is the MLB’s second-highest, more than 10% higher than the
Astros’ $155 million payroll. Philadelphia’s star player, outfielder Bryce
Harper, is in the midst of a 13-year, $330 million contract, and his $32.5
million in earnings on and off the field make him the ninth highest-paid player
in the sport, according to our estimates.




BIG NUMBER

20.1%. That’s how much the S&P 500 is down year-to-date, on pace for its worst
year since 2008, the year of the last Phillies’ World Series victory.




FURTHER READING

No, a Phillies World Series win won’t lead to a recession (we think)
(Philadelphia Inquirer)

Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say (Federal Reserve of
St. Louis)


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Derek Saul
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I'm a New Jersey-based news desk reporter. I graduated in 2021 from Duke
University, where I majored in Economics and served as sports editor for The
Chronicle, Duke's

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Trump: LIV Golf ‘Great’ For Saudi Arabia, Outrage Over Khashoggi Murder Not A
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SHARE: TRUMP: LIV GOLF ‘GREAT’ FOR SAUDI ARABIA, OUTRAGE OVER KHASHOGGI MURDER
NOT A FACTOR


ALREADY AN OUTSPOKEN LIV GOLF BACKER, FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP GAVE HIS
SUPPORT TO THE CONTROVERSIAL SAUDI REGIME FUNDING THE PGA TOUR CHALLENGER IN AN
EYE-OPENING INTERVIEW WITH THE WALL STREET JOURNAL PUBLISHED TUESDAY.

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