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LIVE UPDATES:SCOTUS ON TRUMP 'IMMUNITY'


NEW:538 POLLING AVERAGES


WEINSTEIN CONVICTION OVERTURNED


TRUMP HUSH MONEY TRIAL


GAZA MASS GRAVES

More
Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally
Apr 25

ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty Images/Scott Olson, REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz



 * PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARIES 2024: LEE AND FITZPATRICK SURVIVE, MATCHUPS SET FOR
   NOVEMBER
   
   538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.
   
   April 24, 2024
   
   

 * 4 HOUSE PRIMARIES TO WATCH IN PENNSYLVANIA
   
   The Keystone State will set the table for a slate of key elections this fall.
   
   April 22, 2024
   
   

 * HOW POLLSTERS ARE (AND AREN'T) FIGHTING FRAUD
   
   Can traditional safeguards filter out spammers and bad-faith actors?
   
   April 19, 2024
   
   

 * ABC News Photo Illustration
   
   WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO TURN RED STATES BLUE OR BLUE STATES RED?
   
   How demographic swings in party choice and turnout could affect the election.
   
   April 04, 2024




LATEST 538 VIDEO

 * 52:51
   
   
   
   538'S NEW POLLING AVERAGES SHOW CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
   
   2 hours ago
   
 * 56:46
   
   
   
   ARE MIKE JOHNSON’S DAYS AS HOUSE SPEAKER NUMBERED? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST
   
   Apr 23, 2024
   
 * 37:38
   
   
   
   IN TRUMP TRIAL, JURY SELECTION IS PART POLITICS | 538 POLITICS PODCAST
   
   Apr 18, 2024
   
 * 47:38
   
   
   
   THE POLITICAL STAKES OF TRUMP'S HUSH MONEY TRIAL
   
   Apr 16, 2024
   
 * 52:58
   
   
   
   WHAT'S UP WITH THE KIDS THESE DAYS?
   
   Apr 11, 2024
   
 * 57:42
   
   
   
   TIM SCOTT IS THE LEADING TRUMP VP CONTENDER
   
   Apr 09, 2024
   
 * 50:10
   
   
   
   WHERE WILL PEOPLE COMMUNE IN A GODLESS AMERICA?
   
   Apr 05, 2024
   
 * 56:37
   
   
   
   THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS BECOME AN UNPOPULARITY CONTEST
   
   Apr 02, 2024
   
 * 55:36
   
   
   
   ARE US POLITICS UNDERGOING A RACIAL REALIGNMENT? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST
   
   Mar 28, 2024
   
 * 47:54
   
   
   
   IS AN ELECTION VIBE SHIFT UNDERWAY? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST
   
   Mar 26, 2024
   
 * 10:43
   
   
   
   WHO SAID IT: BIDEN, TRUMP OR SOMEONE FROM 'THE BACHELOR'?
   
   Mar 25, 2024
   
 * 59:18
   
   
   
   538 DEBATE CLUB: SHOULD TIKTOK BE BANNED? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST
   
   Mar 22, 2024
   




LATEST 538 HEADLINES


2 hours ago


538'S NEW POLLING AVERAGES SHOW CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live!
2 hours ago

April 25


HOW (MOST OF) OUR POLLING AVERAGES WORK

An explanation of the methodology for most of 538's current polling averages.
April 25

April 25


TRUMP LEADS IN SWING-STATE POLLS AND IS TIED WITH BIDEN NATIONALLY

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25

April 25


TRUMP LEADS IN SWING-STATE POLLS AND IS TIED WITH BIDEN NATIONALLY

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25

April 23


ARE MIKE JOHNSON’S DAYS AS HOUSE SPEAKER NUMBERED? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the
House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan
humanitarian assistance and Taiwan.
April 23

April 22


4 HOUSE PRIMARIES TO WATCH IN PENNSYLVANIA

The Keystone State will set the table for a slate of key elections this fall.
April 22

April 19


HOW POLLSTERS ARE (AND AREN'T) FIGHTING FRAUD

Can traditional safeguards filter out spammers and bad-faith actors?
April 19

April 18


IN TRUMP TRIAL, JURY SELECTION IS PART POLITICS | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's
Manhattan criminal trial.
April 18

April 18


AMERICANS REALLY LOVE THEIR GOVERNORS

Pollsters differ on how much, but most hold high approval ratings.
April 18

April 17


DOES IT MATTER THAT DEMOCRATS ARE RAISING MORE MONEY THAN REPUBLICANS?

538 breaks down the latest presidential, Senate and House fundraising reports.
April 17

April 16


THE FAR RIGHT CLAIMS THERE'S A 'UNIPARTY' IN WASHINGTON. REALITY SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE.

Democrats and Republicans have grown farther apart — and Americans know it.
April 16

April 16


THE POLITICAL STAKES OF TRUMP'S HUSH MONEY TRIAL

How this trial could impact the 2024 campaign.
April 16

April 15


WHAT THE POLLS SAY ABOUT TRUMP'S HUSH MONEY TRIAL

About half of Americans think he's guilty. That likely won't matter in November.
April 15

April 11


WHAT'S UP WITH THE KIDS THESE DAYS?

Young voters showed up for Biden in 2020. Will they in 2024?
April 11

April 11


IT'S REALLY HARD TO CHANGE ELECTORAL COLLEGE RULES

Nebraska Republicans are only the latest to try and fail.
April 11

April 11


THE LESS YOU VOTE, THE MORE YOU BACK TRUMP

A new poll suggests it's Republicans who should be rooting for higher turnout.
April 11

April 09


BIDEN HAS FORGIVEN BILLIONS IN STUDENT LOANS. VOTERS MAY NOT HAVE NOTICED.

After an expansive plan was struck down, he focused on targeted initiatives.
April 09

April 09


TIM SCOTT IS THE LEADING TRUMP VP CONTENDER

Plus, the solar eclipse polling you thought you knew.
April 09

April 08


DO AMERICANS AGREE WITH TRUMP ON ABORTION?

Test your knowledge of public sentiment on abortion, IVF and more.
April 08

April 05


WHY IT ALWAYS FEELS LIKE THE GOVERNMENT IS ABOUT TO SHUT DOWN

Congress routinely uses stopgap bills to punt funding deadlines.
April 05

April 05


WHERE WILL PEOPLE COMMUNE IN A GODLESS AMERICA?

Religious decline has happened fast. It means fewer places for connection.
April 05

April 02


THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS BECOME AN UNPOPULARITY CONTEST

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both underwater in the
polls with the American public.
April 02

March 28


ARE US POLITICS UNDERGOING A RACIAL REALIGNMENT? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

Some voters of color are challenging traditional voter alliances.
March 28

March 26


IS AN ELECTION VIBE SHIFT UNDERWAY? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

Biden's approval rating is up, and Trump's favorability rating is down.
March 26

March 25


WHO SAID IT: BIDEN, TRUMP OR SOMEONE FROM 'THE BACHELOR'?

We quizzed the 538 staff with 12 quotes about finding love — or votes.
March 25

March 22


538 DEBATE CLUB: SHOULD TIKTOK BE BANNED? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

The pros and cons of a possible de facto TikTok ban.
March 22

March 19


HOW WORRIED SHOULD DEMOCRATS BE ABOUT THE POLLS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
March 19

March 15


DO CAMPAIGN STOPS ACTUALLY MATTER? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 15

March 12


DOES GEN Z REALLY CARE MORE ABOUT THAT VIRAL TIKTOK THAN POLITICS?

What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 12



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