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 * Commodities


BAKERS BRACE FOR COSTLY CHRISTMAS AS BUTTER PRICES SURGE

By Sybille de La Hamaide
October 14, 20249:07 AM GMT+2Updated 19 hours ago
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An employee takes out of the oven a tray of croissants at La Croissanterie food
chain in Paris, France, September 7, 2017. REUTERS/Charles Platiau/File Photo
Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
 * Summary

 * Butter prices hit record highs in Europe, up 83% year-on-year
 * Bakers may be squeezed pre-Christmas by rising costs
 * Dairy producers favour more profitable cheese over butter
 * Analysts expect prices to ease as output increases

PARIS, Oct 14 - Butter prices have rocketed in recent months, trading at record
highs across Europe in bad news for bakers and pastry makers as they prepare for
Christmas celebrations and already face high chocolate and sugar costs.
Strong demand for butter, tight stocks and dairy processors' preference to use
more milk for the most profitable products such as cheese have driven the price
surge, analysts say.
European butter was trading on world markets at a record $8,706 per metric ton
by Sept. 29, up 83% on year, latest official European Commission data, opens new
tab showed.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

Prices were also higher year-on-year in Australia and New Zealand but came off
summer highs.
While large food companies have covered much of their butter supplies before
starting to produce Christmas cakes and ice creams, the impact for small
producers will be significant with a rise in prices unavoidable, said Paul
Boivin, director of the French bakers and pastry federation FEB.
Milk output declined last year in most parts of the globe including Europe, the
United States and New Zealand - the world's largest milk and butter exporter -
as low prices and high feed costs discouraged many dairy farmers.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

Global milk output rebounded slightly in 2024 but remained tight compared to
growing demand, prompting producers to favour allocating milk to the most
competitive products like cheese instead of butter, Rabobank dairy analyst
Michael Harvey said.


SPREAD OF DISEASES

EU milk production grew 0.7% between January 2023 and July 2024, the latest EU
data showed. Over the same period butter output fell 1.6% with stocks at
historically low levels, while cheese production gained 3.2%.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month raised its forecast for 2024 U.S.
butter prices to $3 per pound, up 15% from last year, due partly to fewer cows
and less milk produced by each animal.
"Tighter milk supplies and firm demand are expected to carry the higher price
outlook into 2025," USDA said.
Revenues in the global butter market are set to reach $42 billion in 2024, up
more than 8% from 2022, and the market is expected to grow annually by 7% by
2029, according to data platform Statista.

European butter prices were also somewhat supported by fears of a further
decline in milk supply due to a spread of diseases in dairy cows in Western
Europe, including bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD), analysts
said.
However, the number of outbreaks of bird flu in U.S. dairy cows was not large
enough to impact the national level of milk production, USDA economist Michael
McConnell said.

Butter prices should ease from record highs as dairy producers boost output to
benefit from high prices but it could take several months to see a significant
fall, said Susan Kilsby, analyst at ANZ bank in New Zealand.

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newsletter. Sign up here.

Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris, Peter Hobson in Canberra and Tom
Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Andrew Cawthorne

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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