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Election 2024
Find results
   Live updates2 mins ago
 * Polls
 * Results timing
 * Harris's paths
 * Trump's paths
 * Early voting
 * Swing states
 * Voting hours
 * House races
 * More

Find results



CAN HARRIS WIN THE ELECTION? HERE ARE HER POSSIBLE PATHS TO VICTORY.


MAPPING THE WAYS HARRIS CAN WIN, BASED ON THE WASHINGTON POST POLLING AVERAGE.

4 min

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 1. Harris wins the Rust Belt and exactly 270 electoral votes
 2. Harris repeats Biden’s 2020 victory
 3. Harris wins the Sun Belt

By Lenny Bronner
and 
Nick Mourtoupalas
November 4, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. EST

A little over a month ago we looked at the most likely paths that Vice President
Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have to win the presidency with
the help of The Washington Post’s polling average.


Get the latest election news and results


Now, the day before Election Day, we revisit their paths to the White House.
Spoiler alert: Not much has changed for either Harris or Trump. Their paths
remain largely the same.



The polls have tightened since September, moving ever so slightly in Trump’s
direction. He leads Arizona now by two percentage points instead of one. He also
narrowly leads North Carolina, which had been a toss-up. Harris still leads in
the three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but she has
lost ground there. She also leads in Nevada by one point.

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Overall, though, the polls have been pretty stable, consistently showing the
race as a toss-up or that Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the
presidency. In this article, we look at Harris’s three most likely paths to get
to the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Here’s our look at Trump’s paths.


HARRIS WINS THE RUST BELT AND EXACTLY 270 ELECTORAL VOTES

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Wis.

Mich.

Pa.

Nev.

N.C.

Ariz.

Ga.

C.D.

1

2

1

2

3

Split E.V.

Neb.

Maine

Harris

50% of

270

all votes

44

Favored to win: 226

219

15

19

10

11

16

6

16

Mich.

Pa.

Wis.

Ariz.

Ga.

Nev.

N.C.

Not a representation of actual election results.

Note: Maine and Nebraska award some

electoral votes by congressional district.

Wis.

Mich.

Pa.

Nev.

N.C.

Ariz.

Ga.

C.D.

1

2

3

1

2

Split E.V.

Neb.

Maine

Harris

50% of

270

all votes

44

Favored to win: 226

219

15

19

10

11

16

6

16

Mich.

Pa.

Wis.

Ariz.

Ga.

Nev.

N.C.

Not a representation of actual election results.

Note: Maine and Nebraska award some electoral votes

by congressional district.

Wis.

Mich.

Pa.

Nev.

N.C.

Ariz.

Split E.V.

Ga.

C.D.

1

2

3

Neb.

Maine

Harris

50% of

all votes

270

44

Favored to win: 226

219

10

15

19

11

16

6

16

Mich.

Pa.

Wis.

Ariz.

Ga.

Nev.

N.C.

Not a representation of actual election results.

Note: Maine and Nebraska award some electoral votes by congressional district.

Harris’s mostly likely path to the presidency is through the Rust Belt as she
has posted some of her best polling numbers there. If she is able to win
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as all the non-swing states that
Joe Biden won in 2020, that would put her at exactly 270 electoral votes, the
minimum necessary to win.

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She is ahead in all three states, but her position has deteriorated a bit since
early October. This is especially true in Pennsylvania, the largest and most
electorally important of the Rust Belt states, where her three-point lead has
shrunk to less than one point. Even a polling error smaller than the ones we saw
in 2016 or 2020 could cost Harris all three states.

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ELECTION 2024

arrow leftarrow right
Follow live updates on the 2024 election and Vice President Kamala Harris and
former president Donald Trump from our reporters on the campaign trail and in
Washington.
Here’s when we may know who won the presidential election, a breakdown of how
The Washington Post reports results and how Post Pulse will forecast the outcome
of the presidential race.
We’ve identified Harris’s and Trump’s possible paths to winning the presidential
election based on The Post’s polling averages in seven battleground states.
We’ve compared Harris’s and Trump’s stances on the most important issues,
including abortion, economic policy and immigration.
The Post broke down the nine races and three long shots that could determine
whether Democrats lose control of the Senate. Forty-three competitive races will
determine whether Republicans retain their narrow control of the House.
Sign up for The Campaign Moment, reporter Aaron Blake’s guide to what you really
need to know about the election.

1/6

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To win the Rust Belt, Harris needs to hold on to the gains that Biden and she
made in the suburbs during the 2020 election. She also can’t afford to lose
ground in the city of Philadelphia, where Democrats’ margins with Black voters
have ticked down in the past three presidential elections.


HARRIS REPEATS BIDEN’S 2020 VICTORY

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When Harris first became the Democratic nominee, it looked as though she might
overtake Trump in all seven battleground states and be able to repeat — or even
surpass — Biden’s 2020 victory. She gained four points nationally in her first
six weeks at the top of the ticket compared to where Biden stood when he dropped
out. Across the seven battleground states, she gained almost five points.

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Since late August, however, her rise has stalled and she is behind Trump in
Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, according to The Post’s polling average.
It’s hard to see how Harris closes this gap now with millions of Americans
having already cast their ballot.

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But the reason this scenario remains Harris’s second most likely path to victory
is because Trump’s lead in all three states is pretty small: All three states
are within a normal-sized polling error of three and a half points. Trump leads
by only two points in Arizona and Georgia and less than one point in North
Carolina. So if Harris can continue to win Black and Latino voters with margins
similar to what her and Biden posted in 2020 while simultaneously holding onto
their gains in the suburbs, she could win Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. She might
even be able to flip North Carolina.


HARRIS WINS THE SUN BELT

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According to The Post’s polling average, winning the presidency by just winning
the Sun Belt — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — is Harris’s least
likely path. While she initially gained ground in all four states compared to
Biden and maintains a one-point lead in Nevada, she is still behind Trump in
Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

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One big reason this scenario is Harris’s least likely path is because winning
would essentially require two polling errors, pointing in opposite directions:
Harris would need to be overestimated in the polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Wisconsin while also underestimated in the Sun Belt.

To be sure, this kind of polling error could happen. It’s possible, for
instance, that Trump is underestimated in the Rust Belt, similar to 2016 or
2020, and that Harris is underestimated in the Sun Belt. But in recent
elections, polling errors have moved in the same direction, so two simultaneous
errors of this magnitude would be somewhat unusual. Similar to the previous
scenario, to win, Harris would need to hold onto Latino and Black voters, as
well as post strong margins in suburban Phoenix and Atlanta.


ELECTION 2024

Follow live updates on the 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris and
former president Donald Trump from our reporters on the campaign trail and in
Washington.

Election results: Here’s when we may know who won the presidential election, a
breakdown of how The Washington Post reports results and how Post Pulse will
forecast the outcome of the presidential race.

Presidential polls: We’ve identified Harris’s and Trump’s possible paths to
winning the presidential election based on The Post’s polling averages in seven
battleground states.

Voting: We mapped where millions of Americans have cast a ballot in the 2024
election through mail and in-person early voting. Here’s when polls close in
each state.

Policy positions: We’ve collected Harris’s and Trump’s stances on the most
important issues — abortion, economic policy, immigration and more.

House and Senate control: Senate Democrats are at risk of losing their slim
51-49 majority this fall. The Post broke down the nine races and three long
shots that could determine Senate control. In the House, 10 competitive races
will determine whether Republicans will retain their narrow control of the
chamber next year.

Show more

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841 Comments
Election 2024
HAND CURATED
 * Election 2024 live updates: On election eve, Harris, Trump focus on big prize
   of Pennsylvania
   Earlier today
   
   Election 2024 live updates: On election eve, Harris, Trump focus on big prize
   of Pennsylvania
   Earlier today
 * When will we know the election results? What to know about vote counting.
   November 4, 2024
   
   When will we know the election results? What to know about vote counting.
   November 4, 2024
 * Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?
   November 4, 2024
   
   Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?
   November 4, 2024

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