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COULD KAMALA HARRIS BEAT DONALD TRUMP IN NOVEMBER'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

By Nandita Bose , Jeff Mason and Bianca Flowers
July 7, 20243:32 PM GMT+2Updated 15 days ago
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WASHINGTON, July 7 (Reuters) - She worries Republican donors, has name
recognition, and Democratic Party heavyweights are beginning to line up behind
her.
Vice President Kamala Harris would be President Joe Biden's natural successor if
he bowed to growing pressure and stepped aside as the Democratic candidate in
the 2024 election, top Democrats say.
Now party donors, activists and officials are asking: Does she have a better
chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden has said repeatedly he is
staying in the race.
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Harris, 59, a former U.S. senator and California attorney general, would be the
first woman to be president of the United States if she becomes the party's
nominee and prevails in the Nov. 5 election. She is the first African American
and Asian person to serve as vice president.
Her 3-1/2 year White House tenure has been characterized by a lackluster start,
staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central
America that did not produce major successes.
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As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign
team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign. The situation
has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she
stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.
She "is proud to be his running mate and looks forward to serving at his side
for four more years," the Biden Harris campaign told Reuters.



SOME POLLS FAVOR HARRIS

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the
Republican candidate, although she would face a tight contest.
A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by six
percentage points, or 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, within
the margin of error.
It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters
of both parties prefer her 51-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll after last week's televised debate between Trump and a
faltering Biden found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her
and 43% backing him.
Only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in
joining the race, polled higher among possible alternatives to Biden.
Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris with
the same odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters saying they would
vote for her versus 48% for Trump.

Influential Democrats including U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, who was key to
Biden's 2020 win; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member
of the Congressional Black Caucus; and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from
Pennsylvania have signaled Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if
Biden chooses to step aside.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same to
lawmakers, a Congressional aide said.
Harris is taken so seriously, two Republican donors told Reuters they would
prefer for Trump to face Biden than her.
"I would prefer Biden to stay in place", rather than be replaced by Harris, said
Pauline Lee, a fundraiser for Trump in Nevada after the June 27 debate, who said
she thought Biden had proved himself to be "incompetent."
And some on Wall Street, an important Democratic fundraising center, are
starting to indicate a preference.
"Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to be able to overcome that gap
given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves
Democrats' odds of taking the White House," said Sonu Varghese, global macro
strategist at Carson Group, a financial services company, after the debate.
"There's potentially more upside for her chances than Biden's at this point."
A majority of Americans see Harris in a negative light, as they do both men
running for president.
Polling outlet Five Thirty Eight said 37.1% of voters approve of Harris and
49.6% disapprove. Those numbers compare to 36.9% and 57.1% for Biden, and 38.6%
and 53.6% for Trump.


WOMEN, BLACK VOTERS, GAZA


U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the 30th annual Essence Festival
in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S., July 6, 2024. REUTERS/Edmund D. Fountain/File
Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Since the Supreme Court repealed women's constitutional right to abortion in
2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's foremost voice on
reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on to help them win the 2024
election.
Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose
enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including Black voters, young voters and those
who do not approve of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
"She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition
... she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the
fold," said Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, in a recent
op-ed.
Democratic and Republican suburban women may also be more comfortable with her
then Trump or Biden, he said.
As vice president, Harris's public Israel strategy is identical to Biden's,
although she was the first senior leader of the U.S. government to call for a
ceasefire in March.
"Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern" of the
movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national "Uncommitted" movement
that withheld votes for Biden in the primary based on his support of Israel.
If Biden were to step aside, there could be a competition between other
Democrats to become the nominee.
If the party were then to choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats
say it could lose the support of many Black voters who were critical to Biden's
election win in 2020.
"There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris," said Adrianne Shropshire,
executive director of Black voter outreach group BlackPAC.
"If the Democratic Party thinks that they have problems now with their base
being confused ... Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don't
think the Democratic Party actually recovers."


LEFT-LEANING, TARGETED ATTACKS

However, Harris may struggle to reel in moderate Democrats and the independent
voters who like Biden's centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both
parties seek independents to help pull them over the finishing line in
presidential elections.
"Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the
far-left wing of the Democratic Party ... and the left wing of the Democratic
party cannot win a national election," said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and
adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. "That is
the challenge that she will have to overcome if she is the nominee."
Harris would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign
infrastructure, a critical advantage with just four months before election day
on Nov. 5.
But any Democratic campaign still needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars
more before November to be successful, strategists say. And there, Harris could
be a liability.
"I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her" said a source
at the Democratic National Committee.
As a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election, Harris lagged Biden in
raising money. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, the same month her
campaign reported $39.3 million in total contributions. Biden's campaign
reported $60.9 million in the same period.
However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after he
named Harris as his running mate in 2020.
Harris's prosecutorial background could shine in a head-to-head debate against
Trump, some Democrats said.
"She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the
case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart," said
Mehlhorn.
Republican attacks on Harris are ramping up as she has been floated as a
possible Biden replacement. Conservative talking heads are re-circulating
criticism leveled at her during the 2020 race, including from some Democrats,
that Harris laughs too much, that she is untested, and unqualified.
On July 6 the New York Post, owned by the conservative News Corp, ran a column
headlined "America may soon be subjected to the country’s first DEI president:
Kamala Harris," that said her political rise was because of her party's
diversity, equity and inclusion "stranglehold."
Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the
attacks are part of a long history of objectifying and denigrating women of
color in politics.
"Unfortunately the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against
women running for office is historically common and persists to this day," said
Dittmar.

Get weekly news and analysis on the U.S. elections and how it matters to the
world with the newsletter On the Campaign Trail. Sign up here.

Reporting by Jeff Mason, Nandita Bose, Bianca Flowers, Alexandra Ulmer, Saqib
Iqbal Ahmed Editing by Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell and David Holmes

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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Jeff Mason

Thomson Reuters

Jeff Mason is a White House Correspondent for Reuters. He has covered the
presidencies of Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden and the presidential
campaigns of Biden, Trump, Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain. He served as
president of the White House Correspondents’ Association in 2016-2017, leading
the press corps in advocating for press freedom in the early days of the Trump
administration. His and the WHCA's work was recognized with Deutsche Welle's
"Freedom of Speech Award." Jeff has asked pointed questions of domestic and
foreign leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's
Kim Jong Un. He is a winner of the WHCA's “Excellence in Presidential News
Coverage Under Deadline Pressure" award and co-winner of the Association for
Business Journalists' "Breaking News" award. Jeff began his career in Frankfurt,
Germany as a business reporter before being posted to Brussels, Belgium, where
he covered the European Union. Jeff appears regularly on television and radio
and teaches political journalism at Georgetown University. He is a graduate of
Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism and a former Fulbright
scholar.

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Bianca Flowers

Thomson Reuters

Bianca Flowers is an award-winning multimedia journalist based in Chicago where
she focuses on enterprise stories in areas of race, inequality, identity and
social justice. She joined Reuters in 2022 as a manufacturing correspondent,
covering the bedrock of the U.S. economy. She reported on labor unions strikes,
corporate finance for global agriculture and construction companies and the
impact of automation and artificial intelligence in the industrial sector. Prior
to joining Reuters, she was a Senior Video Journalist at Dow Jones, covering
short and long-form features on personal finance, income inequality, and
diversity in the tech industry.

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