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LOW TURNOUT, APATHY IN INDIA ELECTION A WORRY FOR MODI'S CAMPAIGN

By Manoj Kumar and Aftab Ahmed
May 2, 202411:23 AM GMT+2Updated 19 hours ago
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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses party supporters during an
election campaign rally in Himmatnagar, India, May 1, 2024. REUTERS/Amit
Dave/File Photo Purchase Licensing RightsNew Tab, opens new tab
NEW DELHI, May 2 (Reuters) - A lower turnout so far in India’s long general
election has rattled Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign managers, raising
into question whether his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can
achieve the landslide victory predicted by opinion polls just one month ago.
The lack of momentum has been partly blamed on apathy among party workers
believing victory is assured and seems to have prompted Modi to change tack in
his campaign speeches to try to fire up the Hindu majority, the party’s support
base, and get them out to voting stations, political analysts said.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

The last major opinion poll had predicted that the BJP and its allies could win
three-fourths of parliament's 543 seats at stake on the back of Modi's
popularity, strong economic growth, handouts and the inauguration of a Hindu
temple on a contested site in the Hindu majority country.
At the last election in 2019, the BJP won 303 seats and its allies won around 50
seats. Its slogan before this year's election began was "Ab ki baar, 400 paar"
or "This time, above 400".
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More than half a dozen BJP leaders and political analysts that Reuters spoke to
said a lack of momentum in the two initial phases of the seven-phase election
have dampened hopes of a huge majority for the party, although they said it was
still likely to retain power in the world's most populous nation.
What could be affected is the BJP's aim to get a two-thirds majority in the
chamber, or 362 seats, which would let the party usher in far-reaching
constitutional changes.

"The fall in polling turnout is mainly due to apathy among party workers and
voters," said Sanjay Sharma, one of the members of the BJP's campaign committee
in the northern state of Haryana.
Some candidates were being affected by an anti-incumbency wave, he said, adding
the party was facing a "tough fight" in the state where it won all ten
parliamentary seats in 2019.
Modi himself has shifted in his campaign speeches from a focus on the
administration's successes in his 10-year tenure to targeting minority Muslims
and the opposition Congress party.
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"After the first phase, we saw a definite change of strategy by the
PM...delivering Islamophobic kind of speeches," said Arati Jerath, a Delhi-based
political commentator.
"Obviously, he has now decided to polarise the campaign."
A total of 190 seats went to the polls on April 19 and 27 with approximate voter
turnout at about 66%, the Election Commission has said. The number was only
slightly lower than the last election in 2019, although there was a drop of 5-8
percentage points in voting in the BJP and allied-ruled states Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar and Rajasthan.

The BJP had been hoping for a high turnout, believing that would signal that its
supporters had voted in force.
Polling ends on June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4. The government bans
the publication of exit polls until all voting is concluded.


'BELOW EXPECTATIONS'

Gopal Krishna Agarwal, BJP's national spokesman, said the voting numbers were
"below expectations" but would not have much impact on the final results.
"Many voters have become lethargic as they are convinced about the victory of
the party," he said.
The BJP's shift in tack may have backfired with some voters.
"We have lost interest because the BJP is seeking votes by communalising the
campaign, and not on its performance," said Vikash Kumar, a voter in Rajnandgaon
in the state of Chhattisgarh.
Kamal Abbas, a Muslim shopkeeper in the city of Lucknow, the capital of
politically vital Uttar Pradesh state, reflected the sense of apathy. He said he
would not waste time and money to travel to his hometown Prayagraj to vote as
Modi's party was set to win the election.
"Minority votes do not stand anywhere in the majoritarian government... there is
no point in wasting time," he said.
Anirudh Singh, one of the district campaign managers of the BJP in Uttar
Pradesh, said the party would have reaped rich electoral dividends if the
election was held during February-March, when fervour over the construction of
the Ram Temple was at its peak.
"The party has failed to encash public support for Modi after the inauguration
of the temple," said Singh, noting that the religious feel-good mood had by and
large been replaced by issues like jobs and inflation.
"So far there's neither a communal wave, nor a Ram wave, nor a Modi wave in the
election,” said Jerath, the political commentator, noting Modi would have to
re-invigorate his party workers and supporters if he hoped for a sweep.
After being battered by Modi in the two last general elections, opposition
parties are hopeful of a better performance.
The shift in the language and style of Modi's campaign reflected a sense of
nervousness, said Jairam Ramesh, a Congress party general secretary.
"The initial voting trends show there is no Modi wave. In states where we were
wiped out in 2019, this time the trends are encouraging," he said.
Gilles Verniers, a political analyst who teaches at Amherst College in
Massachusetts, said the BJP appeared to have revised its expectations and was
feeling a bit rattled at the moment.
"But it's still a very long campaign. There's still room for events and
surprises that may alter the course of the election," he said.
"The balance of probability continues to tilt in favour of the BJP, but not
maybe as strongly as they would have hoped."

Coming soon: Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the
global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here.

Additional reporting by Jatindra Dash in BHUBANESWAR, Saurabh Sharma in LUCKNOW;
Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan

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