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SZANUJEMY TWOJĄ PRYWATNOŚĆ

Razem z naszymi 1462 partnerami przechowujemy na urządzeniu informacje, takie
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Featured Post


THE FALL OF ASSAD MEANS OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISRAEL – AND SOME DANGER

The regime collapse undermines Iran’s influence and makes surrounding Israel
with a 'ring of fire' harder, but what new risks will the chaos pose?
Syrians celebrate the arrival of opposition fighters as they step on a picture
of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, Syria, December 8, 2024. (Omar
Sanadiki/AP)
Dec 8, 2024, 1:09 PM
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Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. The
opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the
authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any
responsibility for them. Please contact us in case of abuse. In case of abuse,
Report this post.

The collapse of Assad’s brutal regime places Israel in a complex situation,
presenting both new threats and significant opportunities. After more than 13
years of a ruthless civil war, during which Syria became an Iranian stronghold
and a base for Russian power, Assad’s fall could significantly alter Israel’s
strategic balance and that of the Middle East. For now, Israel is a passive
observer with limited ability to influence events. However, it will soon need to
adopt a strategy to mitigate the risks arising from the new reality along the
Golan Heights border.

Let us start with the positive aspects of this surprising development in Syria.
Assad has been a long-time enemy of Israel. While he did not initiate wars, he
posed a constant potential threat. Worse, under his rule, Syria became a central
link in the Shiite axis connecting Tehran to Beirut, serving as a corridor for
transferring Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. It is no wonder that these players
invested heavily in maintaining Assad’s rule. The collapse of his regime and the
rise of forces hostile to Iran in his place could sever this axis. The result
would be the isolation of Hezbollah, trapped between a hostile regime in Syria
and Israel.

The organization, which has been severely weakened by the war and suffers from
significant attrition, is now looking toward a period of respite and recovery.
Assad’s fall may cut off its main supply route from Iran, making it much harder
for Tehran to replenish its weapons stockpiles. This development would also
likely weaken Hezbollah domestically, as other sects in Lebanon would welcome
its decline.

Assad’s fall also deals a severe blow to Iran itself. Tehran has invested
billions in preserving Assad’s regime and views Syria as one of its most
important strategic assets in the region. The collapse of the Damascus regime
undermines Iran’s influence in the Middle East and harms its plans to surround
Israel with a “ring of fire.” Similarly, Russia, Syria’s ally, may lose its
strategic bases — the airbase in Khmeimim and the naval base in Latakia —
weakening its regional standing.

However, alongside these opportunities, there are clear dangers. Syria under
Assad’s leadership may have been an enemy, but it was a state. It was possible
to communicate with it — indirectly or directly — and to leverage diplomatic and
other tools against it. Assad’s fall could turn Syria into a battleground
dominated by jihadist forces, a collection of extremist organizations
uninterested in dialogue or agreements. These actors could pose a direct and
immediate threat along the Golan Heights border.

Moreover, the chaos likely to emerge in Syria could tempt Turkey to intervene
more aggressively. President Erdogan, who has been promoting an Islamist agenda
for some time, harbors expansionist ambitions in the Middle East and views
Syria, particularly its Kurdish minority in the north, as a threat to his
borders. His support for certain rebel factions and increased influence in Syria
could lead to direct friction with Israel. While this is a less likely scenario,
it remains a dangerous one.

What should Israel do in light of this emerging reality? At present, it has
established a security buffer against the emerging forces on the border, but it
has no control over events in Syria and remains primarily an observer. However,
in the near future, it will need to make decisions. For example, should it take
military action to deter extremist elements?

For now, Israel can sit on the sidelines, observe, prepare, and, for a brief
moment, “enjoy” the fact that there is a war in the Middle East in which it is
not involved.

About the Author
Dr. Shuki Friedman is the CEO of the Jewish People Policy Institute and a law
lecturer at the Peres Academic Center. He is the former chair of the Sanctions
Committee against Iran.
Related Topics
 * Hezbollah
 * Iran
 * Syria

Related Posts
 * All Changed, Changed Utterly
   Owen Kirby
 * The Fall of Assad – Israel should hope for the best but expect the worst
   Avi Teich

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