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THE LONG TAIL OF WAR: A CYBER RESPONSE TO AN ECONOMIC BATTLE

 * Published by Patrick Dennis on March 22, 2022

Last week I wrote a blog strongly encouraging my peer CEOs and other corporate
leaders to take decisive and immediate steps to shore up their cybersecurity
posture in accordance with CISA's recent Shields Up guidance. As a result, I got
many questions about what was driving my sense of urgency. After all,
cyberattacks have, thus far, appeared to play a very minor role in the conflict
over Ukraine.

My sense of urgency stems from the fact that this is the calm before the cyber
storm. In the first weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, the tactics have been
primarily kinetic warfare (land, air, and sea), which is more effective in
destroying targets and giving the invading Russian army strategic access to
supply lines and staging areas. Cyberwarfare tactics serve as bookends to a
kinetic campaign—providing intelligence and disrupting the opposition's
operations to gain and maintain an advantage. The Russian government and its
affiliates have a long history of using cyberwarfare tactics to gather
intelligence and sow disruption. Since 2012, Ukraine has been repeatedly hit by
these tactics, but they date back to at least 2007 with attacks on Estonian
government, media, and banking organizations. Now we are on the cusp of
witnessing what comes after the kinetic invasion.

I believe we are about to enter a new era—one in which the carefully-toed line
between cyber espionage and cyberwarfare is decisively crossed. There are three
key factors surrounding the war in Ukraine that have led us to this tipping
point.

 1. Coordinated private sector service sanctions (e.g. SWIFT access)
 2. Uncoordinated private sector sanctions (e.g. companies that stand in support
    of Ukraine)
 3. Crowdsourcing as a tactic in warfare (e.g. Anonymous, Volunteer Ukraine IT
    Army, Conti, Ghostwriter)

There is a lot to unpack in each of these areas, and I will explore the
implications of each over the course of a three-blog series. But before I dive
in, let me be unequivocal: The invasion of Ukraine is an abhorrent act that, as
of the time of writing, has taken the lives of 780 civilians and displaced 5
million people, either internally or as refugees. The choice to support Ukraine
by Western governments and private companies is a moral and ethical one that
weighs heavily on me and my fellow business leaders. It's also one that comes
with the very real risk of proportional retaliation by Russia and its allies,
both government and independent. It's that retaliation for which I want to make
sure every organization is prepared.

Get a Complimentary Shields Up Security Assessment


(1) COORDINATED PRIVATE SECTOR SERVICE SANCTIONS

Since the invasion of Ukraine began in late February, countries around the
world, led by the United States and Western Europe have coordinated an advanced
economic operation targeting both Russia and Russian oligarchs. This includes
broad-based elimination of Russian access to the SWIFT network, which is
responsible for carrying almost all international financial transactions. This
action is expected to have significant impacts on Russia's ability to finance
the war. While the involved western countries have not initiated combat
operations to support Ukraine (e.g. no fly zones) these financial and economic
operations are profoundly disruptive.

It is reasonable to expect a proportional response against the West for the
foreseeable future. Proportional response has long been a principle in warfare,
and Russia has made clear that it views current economic operation as an act of
war. Given that Russia has been thoroughly cut off from most global financial
markets, it's reasonable to expect the response to take a non-financial
form—likely cyberattacks aimed at inflicting commensurate financial pain.

The history of Russian cyberattacks suggests that these attacks will come not
only from within the Russian government, but from Russian affiliates and
sympathizers that have government support. The acceleration of crowdsourcing
tactics (covered more below) implies that we could see attacks coming from cyber
militias composed of individual Russian sympathizers around the world.

These attacks are not likely to be limited to government entities. The goal of
proportional response is to inflict proportional pain. Russian citizens now find
themselves cut off from their savings, cut off from goods and services, and cut
off from many communications channels, including Instagram and other social
media platforms.

To inflict similar pain on Western countries and their citizens, I expect to see
Russia and its allies and affiliates target critical infrastructure—not just
water and electric grids, but healthcare systems, banking systems, and other
core services that we have too long taken for granted. Russia has a long track
record of effectively hitting these targets in Ukraine and other countries. It's
not a stretch to believe that they'll extend those attacks to a much greater
number of targets.

In the next blog, I'll delve into the uncoordinated private sector sanctions,
and what this means for private companies, both in and outside of critical
sectors.



Read Part 2: Walking Into the Line of Fire

Read Part 3: The Volunteer Cyber Army



 * Posted in Cybersecurity, Industry Trends
 * See other posts by Patrick Dennis


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RELATED BLOGS

3.11.22


SHIELDS UP: A CEO'S GUIDANCE FOR CORPORATE LEADERS ON CYBERSECURITY READINESS

Cybersecurity is essential for any modern organization. As the risk of
cyberattacks rises, now is the time for CEOs to reconnect with SecOps teams.

Patrick Dennis

3.14.22


PRACTICAL STEPS FOR RESPONDING TO THE CISA WARNING ON RUSSIAN CYBER ATTACKS

Learn common attack techniques and get practical tips for implementing CISA's
Shields Up guidance.

Mark Bowling

2.24.22


BUILD RESILIENCE AMID RISING RISK OF RUSSIAN CYBERTHREATS

With the invasion of Ukraine underway, the risk of cyberattacks is rising. Learn
what to expect and steps you can take to reduce your attack surface.

Mark Bowling


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