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CONDUCT A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO TEST THE IMPACT OF VARYING KEY VARIABLES, SUCH
AS BENEFITS AND COSTS

Posted on September 11, 2024 by roy

Conducting a sensitivity analysis is a valuable technique for assessing how
variations in key variables, such as benefits and costs, can impact the outcomes
of a technology investment project. This analysis helps you understand the
project’s sensitivity to changes in these variables and identify the factors
that have the most significant influence on the project’s success. Here’s how to
conduct a sensitivity analysis:

Identify Key Variables:

Begin by identifying the key variables that are most likely to affect the
project’s outcomes. In the context of a technology investment, these variables
often include:
Initial investment costs.
Ongoing operating and maintenance costs.
Expected benefits and revenue.
Discount rate used for financial analysis.
Project duration or timeline.
Determine Range of Variation:

Define a reasonable range of variation for each key variable. For example, you
might consider best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios. This range
should reflect the uncertainty and variability associated with each variable.
Impact Assessment:

Assess how changes in each variable within its defined range impact the
project’s financial outcomes, such as Net Present Value (NPV), Return on
Investment (ROI), or Payback Period. Use financial modeling techniques and
software to perform these assessments.
Sensitivity Analysis Tools:

Utilize sensitivity analysis tools, such as tornado diagrams or Monte Carlo
simulations, to visualize the impact of variable changes on project outcomes.
Scenario Testing:

Conduct scenario testing by systematically varying one key variable at a time
while keeping others constant. Evaluate the resulting changes in project
metrics.
Identify Key Drivers:

Determine which variables have the most significant impact on the project’s
outcomes. These are known as key drivers. Focus on understanding why certain
variables have a more pronounced effect.
Risk Mitigation Strategies:

Develop risk mitigation strategies for key variables that have a substantial
impact on the project. Strategies may include contingency plans, risk reduction
measures, or alternative scenarios.
Sensitivity Thresholds:

Establish sensitivity thresholds to identify when variations in key variables
become critical. If a variable’s impact exceeds a predetermined threshold, it
may warrant immediate attention and mitigation.
Evaluate Mitigation Costs:

Consider the costs associated with implementing mitigation strategies for key
variable risks. Assess whether these strategies are cost-effective and aligned
with the project’s goals.
Documentation and Reporting:

Document the results of the sensitivity analysis, including key findings,
identified risks, and recommended mitigation actions. Share this information
with project stakeholders and decision-makers.
Iterative Process:

Sensitivity analysis is often an iterative process. As the project progresses
and more data becomes available, revisit and update the analysis to reflect
changing conditions and uncertainties.
Communication:

Communicate the results and insights from the sensitivity analysis to all
relevant stakeholders, including senior management, project teams, and financial
experts.
Sensitivity analysis helps you make more informed decisions by understanding the
project’s resilience to uncertainties and variations in key variables. It allows
you to proactively address risks and develop contingency plans to ensure the
project’s success under different scenarios.

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