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Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
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NWS All NOAA
Hazard Oct 23Oct 24Oct 25 Excessive Rainfall No AreaNo AreaNo Area Heavy Snow (≥
4”)No AreaSlightNo Area Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area
WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
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Experimental HeatRisk
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National Forecast Chart
Valid Tue Oct 22, 2024
Valid Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid Thu Oct 24, 2024
* Day 1
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Image Format:
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Interactive Map
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WPC Top Stories:
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View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather
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North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 00Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 18Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Tue Oct 22, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
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Interactive Map
» Interactive Surface Map
» NWS Unified Surface Analysis
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* » Other Surface Analysis Products
Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 00Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 06Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 18Z Wed Oct 23, 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24, 2024
Valid 00Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
* 00ZWed
* 06ZWed
* 12ZWed
* 18ZWed
* 00ZThu
* 12ZThu
* 00ZFri
* 12ZFri
* 12ZSat
* 12ZSun
* 12ZMon
* 12ZTue
+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 00Z Fri Oct 25 2024
...Remarkably quiescent pattern continues across much of the Continental
United States....
...Light rain showers across Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes today...
...Snow/rain showers crossing Oregon, Idaho toward Yellowstone/Tetons...
...Well above-average temperatures continue over the Central and Eastern
U.S...
A progressive mid-level trof will continue to rapidly advance across
Southern Canada and clip the northern tier states through the Great Lakes
Wednesday. The associated cold front will bring some light rain showers
across these areas, but slowly dry out as it crosses Southeast Canada and
the Northeast by Thursday. Warm air along/ahead of the front will once
again promote well above normal temperatures across New England today with
some locales potentially reaching record today and Wednesday before
returning to normal, or slightly below normal the day after the passage.
The mid-section of the U.S. will once again see larger scale ridging
allowing temperatures to rise 15-20 degrees above normal into
Wednesday/Thursday with some locations in the Southern Plains pushing
daily records as well into the low 90s. So not dangerous heat, but
clearly atypical.
A weak upper-level upper level low will advance into the Pacific Northwest
by Wednesday into Thursday. This system will be below average in moisture
transport as it quickly moves through the terrain of Oregon, Idaho into
southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming producing snow showers and maybe light
rain to the lower elevations.
Gallina
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
...General Overview...
A quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern should be in place across
most of the country on Friday, with broad cyclonic flow across the
Great Lakes and a departing trough off the Northeast Coast. The
pattern is expected to trend more amplified by early next week as a
large scale trough builds in across the Western U.S., accompanied
by a strong cold front and precipitation for the northwestern
quadrant of the nation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge and widespread
above average temperatures are likely from the Plains to the East
Coast, with the surface high slowly moving offshore by Tuesday and
allowing for southerly flow ahead of the Western U.S. trough.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Updated 00/06Z model guidance remains in good agreement on the
synoptic pattern late this week and into this weekend, depicting
quasi-zonal flow with perhaps a couple embedded northern and
southern stream shortwaves passing over the central and eastern
U.S. However, despite an accompanying frontal system at the surface
passing form the Midwest to the East Coast, this looks to be a
relatively dry system with mostly scattered light to moderate
showers anticipated. Broad scale ridging follows upstream over the
central U.S. likely leading to periods of warmer temperatures for
the weekend. Similar to the prior forecast, the main area of
uncertainty lies in the latter half of the forecast early next week
with respect to an upstream upper-trough dropping south from the
northeastern Pacific over the western U.S. The overall trend for
the deterministic models has been for the ECMWF/CMC to be on the
faster side of the guidance with a northern stream trough digging
southward over the West Monday and reaching the the Plains by
Tuesday, with the ECMWF the most aggressive in deepening a surface
low over the Midwest as the height falls expand over the region. On
the other hand, the GFS has been slower, with the trough remaining
positively tilted over the west, and even suggesting a split
stream solution with energy hanging back over the southwestern U.S.
This trend continued with the updated 12Z GFS. The ensemble means
fall in the middle of the guidance, with smaller differences but
the ECens furthest east and the GEFS furthest west. The suite of AI
models from the EC are very similar to the CMC/ECMWF solution
through Monday, but begin to show a slower progression into
Tuesday, adding further uncertainty during this time frame and
suggesting the GFS solution may not be quite the outlier at this
point. For now, these differences don't appear to significantly
impact the expectation that there will be precipitation spreading
inland over the Interior West late weekend into early next week,
but more on the potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation
chances across the northern/central Plains by Tuesday with the
more aggressive ECMWF solution.
The updated WPC forecast blend remains similar to the prior
forecast given good run-to-run consistency. A composite
ECMWF/CMC/GFS/UKMET blend is used through the weekend given the
noted similarities, with a shift towards the ECMWF/CMC and the
ECens/CMC ensemble means for the latter half of the period. The
contribution from the means is increased to 50% by the final day of
the period as to not trend quite as far towards the ECMWF solution
which is more aggressive in deepening the surface low over the
Midwest.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall, especially early in the period, as moisture
will be limited despite a few frontal boundaries and troughs
passing through. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes on Friday around the backside of the surface high and
ahead of the cold front should support scattered light to moderate
showers, reaching into the interior Northeast by early Saturday.
There may also be a few showers across portions of the Southeast
states Friday/Saturday, but these should be more scattered and many
areas should remain dry.
The exception will be West. The Pacific Northwest/northern
California will see onshore flow, and terrain enhancement will tend
to increase rainfall prospects across this region, mainly next
weekend as the moisture plume ahead of the Pacific front moves
inland. A few inches of rainfall will be possible for the coastal
ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. However, the
rainfall totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5
period (Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive
rainfall outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event
and possible totals. Precipitation should spread inland with the
system through the Great Basin and into the northern/central
Rockies Monday-Tuesday. Some heavy snow will also be possible for
the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest as well as into the
northern Rockies. Precipitation chances may increase over the
northern/central Plains by Tuesday as moisture returns ahead of a
deepening surface cyclone over the Midwest.
In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Some areas of the
central/northern Appalachians could see a Frost or Freeze Sunday
morning. Widespread highs 10-20+ degrees above average are looking
likely across the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early
next week as the ridge axis builds and a warm front lifts well to
the north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler
conditions are expected across much of the Western U.S. as a
pattern change evolves and an upper trough develops over the
region. Some gusty Chinook winds will be possible in the lee of the
Montana and Wyoming Rockies Saturday into Sunday with downsloping
winds, as well as across portions of the northern/central Plains as
lee troughing sets up ahead of an approaching upper-level trough.
Additional areas of gusty winds are possible Monday-Tuesday with
the eastward progression of the upper-trough as cyclogenesis
increases flow over the central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as with a cold front passage through the
central/southern Rockies and into the Southwest.
Putnam/Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 30 2024
A surface low embedded within a larger scale inverted trough is
expected across the far northwestern Islands for the middle of the
week, with perhaps a weaker secondary low developing near it and
merging with it. Meanwhile, another low is likely to develop well
to the northeast of Hawaii midweek and stay away from the state.
Going into the end of the week and the weekend, the guidance has
come into better overall agreement with the surface pressure
pattern.
Trade wind flow should generally be from the east most days, and
since the main surface high and its stronger pressure gradient
should be well north of the state, winds should be light to
moderate most days. The surface winds may veer slightly to the
east-southeast towards the end of the week. In terms of
precipitation prospects, no major rainfall events appear likely
over the next 5 days, with good overall agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF on this scenario.
Hamrick
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/26/2024 - 00Z 10/27/2024
Valid 00Z 10/27/2024 - 00Z 10/28/2024
Valid 00Z 10/28/2024 - 00Z 10/29/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/28/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 06Z 10/23/2024 - 18Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 06Z 10/25/2024 - 18Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 06Z 10/23/2024
Valid 06Z 10/23/2024 - 12Z 10/23/2024
Valid 12Z 10/23/2024 - 18Z 10/23/2024
Valid 18Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 06Z 10/24/2024
Valid 06Z 10/24/2024 - 12Z 10/24/2024
Valid 12Z 10/24/2024 - 18Z 10/24/2024
Valid 18Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 06Z 10/25/2024
Valid 06Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/25/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 18Z 10/25/2024
Valid 18Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 00Z 10/26/2024 - 00Z 10/28/2024
Valid 00Z 10/28/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
* Total: Day 1-2
* Day 1-3
* Day 1-5
* Day 1-7
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* Day 4/5
* Day 6/7
Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)
» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
Monitor
» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 01Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 27 2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024
01Z Update: The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.
Churchill
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024
20Z Update: The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.
Kleebauer
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024
20Z Update: The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance is less than 5 percent.
Kleebauer
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall, especially early in the period, as moisture
will be limited despite a few frontal boundaries and troughs
passing through. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes on Friday around the backside of the surface high and
ahead of the cold front should support scattered light to moderate
showers, reaching into the interior Northeast by early Saturday.
There may also be a few showers across portions of the Southeast
states Friday/Saturday, but these should be more scattered and many
areas should remain dry.
The exception will be West. The Pacific Northwest/northern
California will see onshore flow, and terrain enhancement will tend
to increase rainfall prospects across this region, mainly next
weekend as the moisture plume ahead of the Pacific front moves
inland. A few inches of rainfall will be possible for the coastal
ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. However, the
rainfall totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5
period (Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive
rainfall outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event
and possible totals. Precipitation should spread inland with the
system through the Great Basin and into the northern/central
Rockies Monday-Tuesday. Some heavy snow will also be possible for
the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest as well as into the
northern Rockies. Precipitation chances may increase over the
northern/central Plains by Tuesday as moisture returns ahead of a
deepening surface cyclone over the Midwest.
In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Some areas of the
central/northern Appalachians could see a Frost or Freeze Sunday
morning. Widespread highs 10-20+ degrees above average are looking
likely across the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early
next week as the ridge axis builds and a warm front lifts well to
the north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler
conditions are expected across much of the Western U.S. as a
pattern change evolves and an upper trough develops over the
region. Some gusty Chinook winds will be possible in the lee of the
Montana and Wyoming Rockies Saturday into Sunday with downsloping
winds, as well as across portions of the northern/central Plains as
lee troughing sets up ahead of an approaching upper-level trough.
Additional areas of gusty winds are possible Monday-Tuesday with
the eastward progression of the upper-trough as cyclogenesis
increases flow over the central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as with a cold front passage through the
central/southern Rockies and into the Southwest.
Putnam/Hamrick
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall, especially early in the period, as moisture
will be limited despite a few frontal boundaries and troughs
passing through. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes on Friday around the backside of the surface high and
ahead of the cold front should support scattered light to moderate
showers, reaching into the interior Northeast by early Saturday.
There may also be a few showers across portions of the Southeast
states Friday/Saturday, but these should be more scattered and many
areas should remain dry.
The exception will be West. The Pacific Northwest/northern
California will see onshore flow, and terrain enhancement will tend
to increase rainfall prospects across this region, mainly next
weekend as the moisture plume ahead of the Pacific front moves
inland. A few inches of rainfall will be possible for the coastal
ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. However, the
rainfall totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5
period (Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive
rainfall outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event
and possible totals. Precipitation should spread inland with the
system through the Great Basin and into the northern/central
Rockies Monday-Tuesday. Some heavy snow will also be possible for
the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest as well as into the
northern Rockies. Precipitation chances may increase over the
northern/central Plains by Tuesday as moisture returns ahead of a
deepening surface cyclone over the Midwest.
In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Some areas of the
central/northern Appalachians could see a Frost or Freeze Sunday
morning. Widespread highs 10-20+ degrees above average are looking
likely across the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early
next week as the ridge axis builds and a warm front lifts well to
the north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler
conditions are expected across much of the Western U.S. as a
pattern change evolves and an upper trough develops over the
region. Some gusty Chinook winds will be possible in the lee of the
Montana and Wyoming Rockies Saturday into Sunday with downsloping
winds, as well as across portions of the northern/central Plains as
lee troughing sets up ahead of an approaching upper-level trough.
Additional areas of gusty winds are possible Monday-Tuesday with
the eastward progression of the upper-trough as cyclogenesis
increases flow over the central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as with a cold front passage through the
central/southern Rockies and into the Southwest.
Putnam/Hamrick
+ Additional Links
* » Product Info
* » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
* » Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology
Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 00Z 10/23/2024 - 00Z 10/24/2024
Valid 00Z 10/24/2024 - 00Z 10/25/2024
Valid 00Z 10/25/2024 - 00Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/25/2024 - 12Z 10/26/2024
Valid 12Z 10/26/2024 - 12Z 10/27/2024
Valid 12Z 10/27/2024 - 12Z 10/28/2024
Valid 12Z 10/28/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
*
Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts
Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 23 2024 - 00Z Sat Oct 26 2024
...Vicinity of Yellowstone NP...
Day 2...
A compact shortwave will amplify as it races eastward from OR into
the Central Rockies Thursday, combining with a sharpening jet
streak in the base of the accompanying trough to produce large
scale ascent downstream. Lift through height falls, PVA, and upper
diffluence will move into ID/WY/MT Thursday morning, impinging upon
a modest surge of 700mb RH and PWs which briefly exceed +1 sigma
according to the NAEFS ensemble tables. At the surface, a wave of
low pressure will develop beneath this shortwave and along a cold
front pushing eastward, leading to additionally enhanced lift
through convergence and upslope flow. This will result in an axis
of expanding precipitation, with snow levels falling from around
8000 ft to 5000 ft before precipitation wanes Thursday evening, and
WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow peak around 30%,
highest in the Tetons and southern Absarokas.
The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.
Weiss
+ Additional Links
* » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
* » Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
* » Product Verification
* » Product Archive
* » Product Info
* » Forecast Surface Low Positions: Uncertainty Circles | Ensemble Clusters
* » Other Winter Weather Products
Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 26, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
Image Options:
Fronts
Max Temp (°F)
Max Temp Anomaly (°F)
Min Temp (°F)
Min Temp Anomaly (°F)
24-hr Pop(%)
500mb Heights
Day 3-7 Hazards
Additional Products
+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
...General Overview...
A quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern should be in place across
most of the country on Friday, with broad cyclonic flow across the
Great Lakes and a departing trough off the Northeast Coast. The
pattern is expected to trend more amplified by early next week as a
large scale trough builds in across the Western U.S., accompanied
by a strong cold front and precipitation for the northwestern
quadrant of the nation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge and widespread
above average temperatures are likely from the Plains to the East
Coast, with the surface high slowly moving offshore by Tuesday and
allowing for southerly flow ahead of the Western U.S. trough.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Updated 00/06Z model guidance remains in good agreement on the
synoptic pattern late this week and into this weekend, depicting
quasi-zonal flow with perhaps a couple embedded northern and
southern stream shortwaves passing over the central and eastern
U.S. However, despite an accompanying frontal system at the surface
passing form the Midwest to the East Coast, this looks to be a
relatively dry system with mostly scattered light to moderate
showers anticipated. Broad scale ridging follows upstream over the
central U.S. likely leading to periods of warmer temperatures for
the weekend. Similar to the prior forecast, the main area of
uncertainty lies in the latter half of the forecast early next week
with respect to an upstream upper-trough dropping south from the
northeastern Pacific over the western U.S. The overall trend for
the deterministic models has been for the ECMWF/CMC to be on the
faster side of the guidance with a northern stream trough digging
southward over the West Monday and reaching the the Plains by
Tuesday, with the ECMWF the most aggressive in deepening a surface
low over the Midwest as the height falls expand over the region. On
the other hand, the GFS has been slower, with the trough remaining
positively tilted over the west, and even suggesting a split
stream solution with energy hanging back over the southwestern U.S.
This trend continued with the updated 12Z GFS. The ensemble means
fall in the middle of the guidance, with smaller differences but
the ECens furthest east and the GEFS furthest west. The suite of AI
models from the EC are very similar to the CMC/ECMWF solution
through Monday, but begin to show a slower progression into
Tuesday, adding further uncertainty during this time frame and
suggesting the GFS solution may not be quite the outlier at this
point. For now, these differences don't appear to significantly
impact the expectation that there will be precipitation spreading
inland over the Interior West late weekend into early next week,
but more on the potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation
chances across the northern/central Plains by Tuesday with the
more aggressive ECMWF solution.
The updated WPC forecast blend remains similar to the prior
forecast given good run-to-run consistency. A composite
ECMWF/CMC/GFS/UKMET blend is used through the weekend given the
noted similarities, with a shift towards the ECMWF/CMC and the
ECens/CMC ensemble means for the latter half of the period. The
contribution from the means is increased to 50% by the final day of
the period as to not trend quite as far towards the ECMWF solution
which is more aggressive in deepening the surface low over the
Midwest.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
It overall remains the case that most of the country should be
void of heavy rainfall, especially early in the period, as moisture
will be limited despite a few frontal boundaries and troughs
passing through. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes on Friday around the backside of the surface high and
ahead of the cold front should support scattered light to moderate
showers, reaching into the interior Northeast by early Saturday.
There may also be a few showers across portions of the Southeast
states Friday/Saturday, but these should be more scattered and many
areas should remain dry.
The exception will be West. The Pacific Northwest/northern
California will see onshore flow, and terrain enhancement will tend
to increase rainfall prospects across this region, mainly next
weekend as the moisture plume ahead of the Pacific front moves
inland. A few inches of rainfall will be possible for the coastal
ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. However, the
rainfall totals should be limited enough during the Day 4 and 5
period (Friday and Saturday) to warrant keeping the excessive
rainfall outlooks for those days blank for now. There is still some
discrepancy in the guidance for the arrival of this rainfall event
and possible totals. Precipitation should spread inland with the
system through the Great Basin and into the northern/central
Rockies Monday-Tuesday. Some heavy snow will also be possible for
the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest as well as into the
northern Rockies. Precipitation chances may increase over the
northern/central Plains by Tuesday as moisture returns ahead of a
deepening surface cyclone over the Midwest.
In terms of temperatures, it will remain warm and mostly sunny
across the southern tier of the U.S. through most of the forecast
period. An upper trough crossing the Northeast behind a cold front
should result in a brief return to colder temperatures on Sunday
before a moderating trend commences next week. Some areas of the
central/northern Appalachians could see a Frost or Freeze Sunday
morning. Widespread highs 10-20+ degrees above average are looking
likely across the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early
next week as the ridge axis builds and a warm front lifts well to
the north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, considerably cooler
conditions are expected across much of the Western U.S. as a
pattern change evolves and an upper trough develops over the
region. Some gusty Chinook winds will be possible in the lee of the
Montana and Wyoming Rockies Saturday into Sunday with downsloping
winds, as well as across portions of the northern/central Plains as
lee troughing sets up ahead of an approaching upper-level trough.
Additional areas of gusty winds are possible Monday-Tuesday with
the eastward progression of the upper-trough as cyclogenesis
increases flow over the central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as with a cold front passage through the
central/southern Rockies and into the Southwest.
Putnam/Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Additional Links
* » Product Archive
* » Product Info
* » Day 3-7 Surface Composite
* » Other Medium Range Products
Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.
GEFS Probabilities
Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.
Local Storm Reports
Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.
Extreme Precipitation Monitor
Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.
NDFD Forecast Temperature Records
Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.
Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts
An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
Weather in Context Prototype
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).
Experimental HeatRisk
The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts
available out through 7 days.
Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance
Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.
National Blend of Models
Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.
Atmospheric River Portal
A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes.
GEFS Plumes
An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.
SPC Forecast Tools
A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
ECMWF Forecast Charts
Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium
range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.
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