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MONDAY, MARCH 28, 2022


AHEAD FOR RUSSIA: FASCISM, TERROR, EXTERNAL CONFLICT, COLLAPSE OF THE NATION,
CIVIL WAR - 8TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB



My translation of the 8th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to
Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/16.  Over 2,600 words… Please share far &
wide (Twitter Thread).

If you still have not watched this video that explains the context and the
genesis of the #FSBletters, please do so. It will help you understand the prism
through which these letters are to be read.



I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's
start:

“In December I already understood that the Ukrainian situation will cause a
fire. Back then I was fully convinced there’d be no large-scale war, because
that’d lead us to a dead-end from all points of view.

The plan was such: Provoke protests inside Ukraine. ОПЗЖ (Ukrainian pro-Russian
political party, Opposition Bloc) with Victor Medvedchuk (Chairman of ОПЗЖ) and
Vadim Rabinovich (Leader of ОПЗЖ, 2014 Presidential candidate that got
slaughtered in the election) will support the protests. Ilya Kiva (People's
Deputy of Ukraine in the parliament, until he was removed by a vote on Mar 15th,
2022) organizes & selects fighters from the Ukrainian power wing (riot police,
etc.) who are on standby to take control of the government buildings (in Kyiv)
and withstand any resistance – a perfect copy of the Ukrainian Maidan (2014),
but backwards (2014 was a movement by the Ukrainians to unshackle themselves
from being a perpetual puppet state of Russia).



Generally speaking, the first threat was already lurking in the shadows here –
over here at the top (FSB), they have a habit of copying, but copying such
large-scale processes is difficult. Every time there is a huge number of
insignificant factors that are impossible to account for individually, but can
be cause a crazy external effect. This was the first fear: Stupidly copying the
Maidan (Ukraine’s revolution for independence from Russia) is dangerous.

The 2nd threat was also hiding here: Medvedchuk & Rabinovich are far from being
charismatic leaders, and there wasn’t and isn’t much support for them in
Ukraine. But they presented themselves (to the FSB) very high (as being highly
influential). In other words, this was already a break from reality.

As the protests were to start, our people (Russian intel community / Kremlin)
were to declare that this is also Maidan (a legitimate revolution against
Ukrainian government) – will of the people, and if the government starts
shooting at the protestors (In 2014, Putin’s puppet, gangster, & Ukrainian
President Yanukovich ordered snipers supplied by Putin to assassinate over 100
protestors in plain view from rooftop positions), then we [Russia] will not
stand idly-by.



Our (Russian) troops were supposed to be at full readiness on the border, to
distract (Ukrainian) military resources and attention from Kyiv.

And only if the Ukrainian government responded with physical oppression to the
protests [or if the pro-Russian forces began to blatantly lose in the unarmed
street conflicts with pro-Ukrainian forces], we could begin military hostilities
on the borders of LDNR (Part of Donbass region in Ukraine, Luhansk & Donetsk
oblasts that have been seized by Russia in 2014) and also recognize them (as
independent from Ukraine), etc.

Already here there were fears that sanctions on a new level would be imposed (by
the West), and we would suffer significant military losses, as happened in
August 2014 (Russian military suffered significant military losses against
Ukrainian military in the war in Donbass).

We (FSB) didn’t make calculations for the war itself (Putin’s Blitzkrieg of
Ukraine) – we analyzed how we would act under conditions of a full-scale war and
defined the point of critical level. “Critical level” – this implies
responsibility, and since no one (in the FSB) expected the war, we painted a
picture of what great fellas (FSB) we are and how we’d solve all problems &
within what timeframes.



In parallel, we were in an emergency mode, trying to tighten up the weak sides
the for the beginning of the "pushing at the borders.” In two words – failure
upon failure, and more & more problems. And it’s not just us (FSB) over there
(planning pre-invasion of Ukraine), various departments were "planning"
something, often interfering with each other and trying to secure a piece that
would pay dividends later - career dividends, first and foremost. And then the
big war broke out and we gurgled in the sh*t of reality.

 

Fascism is being prepared inside Russia [this is a politically correct term, but
it can manifest itself as “The Red Terror,” “Stalin’s Repressions,” etc.],
absolutely classical, but with another name.

The lobby for a ban on dissent is insanely strong, for a departure into a
fundamentally new model of censorship. But it is incredibly difficult:

- the most passionate patriotic masses are greatly interfering inside the
country: you can't send them to the front - in a modern war that would be the
quickest way to dispose of those sent, and inside the country their energy is
looking for an outlet and enemies. It is not easy to keep them in check, but we
have not yet fully confronted these consequences;



- a radically different information world compared to the past. In essence, the
Herculean work of controlling the Internet is rendered null and void, which is
why we have to hack down social networks in droves. No one can regulate accounts
individually through Roskomnadzor right now, especially not now; (Roskomnadzor
is Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information
Technology and Mass Media, the government body in charge of domestic
censorship);

- to create an alternative informational-social reality within a closed circuit
is unrealistic - China has been working on this issue for a very long time,
systematically and qualitatively, but it is also hard for them. And they do not
export their Chinese language to the world, it is easier for them to control it.
We now have a huge source of Russian-language anti-Russian segment (outside
Russia), which is simply beyond control;

- OMON (riot police), police, Rosgvardia (National Guard), and all the rest. Let
me tell you a military secret: when there are large-scale rallies in Moscow or
St. Petersburg, we have to gather forces from all over the country.

If there is concurrent fire (mass protests) in just a couple of regions, there
are two basic options. The first is that no one will be able to control it
unless they get lucky [as in Khabarovsk – when they dispersed]. The second
option - the involvement of "friendly forces": the Cossacks, patriotic
movements, veterans' organizations, etc. The second option is a risk of the
highest order.

The same Cossacks or patriotic organizations are civilians and do not have
proper instructions for behavior through education and training, which means
that in practice they are bound to allow "excessive force" and punitive
behavior, which even the extremely angry riot police may not expect from them.
They will start a lightning-fast classic Russian riot.

After that, again there are forked options: the military and the conditional
Cossacks will have time to make a forceful suppression [essentially a military
operation of a local nature], or there will be a real civil war, which tends to
elevate the amount of mutual violence.

My summary on this point: If the special services & departments (like the FSB)
are capable of getting away with “precision” terror (My understanding -
kidnapping an activist from their house in the middle of the night or a
false-flag terrorist bombing of apartments, etc.), then such tasks (controlling
mass protests around the country) will no longer be feasible in the transition
to direct fascism.



The volume of arrests and imprisonments will reach such volumes that the (law
enforcement / prison) system will crack at all levels. The enforcers will
overreach, and the risks of an uprising in any single region (like individual
states in the US) are rapidly increasing.

And if one such conflict starts, it can grow into others (elsewhere), like a
sick puppy with ticks: Here the subject of (prison) tortures will also come up,
and other dissatisfied people will join in with their questions.

And here is a whole series of different scenarios: how quickly, where exactly
and for what reason the first flame will ignite. And then there will be a
wildfire.

But the situation also cannot be controlled without transitioning to domestic
fascism: In essence the country is already governed by martial law, it’ll get
much worse.

We have 3 months left even under extremely favorable conditions until we reach
this crisis, which is difficult to even imagine. 3 months – is the boundary with
the most ideal preconditions, beyond which is not yet rock-bottom, but the
beginning of real problems. Happens sooner – I believe it, later (than 3 months
from now) – no way.

Patrushev (Secretary of the Security Council of Russia) didn’t just go meet with
Kadyrov in Grozny without a reason.

Ramzan (Kadyrov), by the way, is rapidly descending from the clouds back to
earth, he is no longer the Czar or God of near cosmic proportions, as he
appeared be even just recently. He even promised to cut off heads in the name of
blood vengeance, and “established” relations with his Caucus neighbors from a
position of strength. He certainly has no reason to fear any sanctions – in a
bad scenario he will be dealt with exactly how he’s dealt with his enemies.

Under such conditions, a military mobilization of the country is necessary in
every sense. “Necessary” not for the population, but for the governing system
which dominates Russia.

(Mentioned in the 3rd #FSBletters) Exactly what I was afraid of: military
expediency will replace law, real terror will be triggered. And terror is a
self-perpetuating thing. It’s not hard to get it started, but you can’t stop it
through prohibition.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1501863866174636037?s=20&t=bIJsjK4r9O3yoD__gv_S2Q

That is why, by the way, the "Bolshevik terror" ended with the extermination of
those who carried it out.

Then it was necessary to exterminate those who “exterminated the exterminators”
– From this purely technical perspective, Stalin in some sense slowed down the
terror rather than facilitating more of it by exterminating his own
(subordinates), who were flying through the country on black crows. Otherwise,
terror becomes the only form of dominant ideology and quickly devours the entire
regime and country.

What I am afraid of: We’ll be able to start the terror. Enemy is at the gates,
martial law, “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер.”

(In Russian, #WindofChange writes here: “Айн фольк, айн Райх, айн фюрер” – which
is German written phonetically in Cyrillic – “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer”,
which of course translates to “One People, One Reich, One Fuhrer.”)

Distinction between “we/them” – just need the will & justification. And who then
who will & how put the brakes on this? We don’t have such a resource. But at the
top there is no understanding that simply proclaiming on TV that “Enough, We
won!” – no, folks, it doesn’t work like that. (Explanation that once real
domestic terror on the people is unleashed, it’s extremely difficult to stop it
when it’s served its purpose.)



You don't use fire to deal with a cockroach infestation at a gunpowder
warehouse. Well, at least sensible people don’t.

In principle, those at the top (Kremlin) understand this to some extent. Not
all. Hence there are ideas to play with very high-stakes. There’s only one
calculation – the world (the West) will chicken out. (Empty threats is the only
strategy that the Kremlin has against the West)

And here comes the psychology. Power, not backed by responsibility, gives birth
to terrible things. And it makes a person irrational. All our key people are not
young men, and for the last twenty years they have been living in absolute
power, surrounded by opportunists. They think they are gods. And they don't see
reality. And deep down, they are terribly afraid.

That being said:

- The regions (like separate states in the US) have finally been ceded into the
hands of local elites. "You should be Z" - right now, we will close our eyes to
everything else. (Implication here is vigilante, local, regional terrorism in
the name of "Z" will go unpunished by the central authorities.) As never before.

Collapsed roads (NOTE: typical due to corruption at every level of government in
Russia, especially in rural areas) - blame it on the enemy, broken road signs -
raise the populace under the banner of Z.

“Rule as you wish boyar (Russian term for nobleman) - the Czar has unshackled
you to do anything.”

- No one has any idea what the key agencies’ strategies are, what their course
of action is right now. The status of the state programs, the linkage of the
different new packages, the consequences. You too can enter the ring against a
boxing champion with an attitude of “never dominated here before, but now I’ll
pull my will into my fist – most important is the attitude.”



But in the case of an entire nation, it's as if you and all other human rights
activists were going to go head-to-head with an equal number of top fighters.
And this applies to more than just the economy here;

- If we don't get any sort of international result quickly, then India, China,
and the Arab world will turn their backs on us. And we may also be reminded of
our territorial claims. They don't like the weak, so we will have to show
strength;

- No one trusts anyone anymore. The monolithic nature of the elites is only
because no one will allow others to jump out ahead. It's cynical, but it's a
formula that works, and control over everyone is reinforced. Ours guys (FSB) too
are now tightly guarding both the inner circles and the families of the
leadership. But to guarantee that some of the members of the government will not
go "to the enemies" with their denunciations - no one can do that. And what kind
of machinations, alliances, etc., are about to begin – there’s no guessing.

- At the very top, a big showdown is inevitable. And it’ll be so all over the
vertical (chain-of-command). I think sudden deaths from heart, tea, and colds
will become epidemic, and any wealthy businessman can now easily become a
Western agent for purposes of confiscation - if only there was something to
squeeze out (financially out of the businessman).

- Logical decisions have ceased to be made here (FSB).

On the positive side - I have more free time, and my psyche doesn’t allow me to
be in a state of fear all the time. I try not to ruin the mood of the management
with real reports, I can provide you with much more information. That’s it for
the positives.

By all appearances, the West is preparing Navalny for the role as Russia's new
head of state.
Not because he's good, but because "who else can they negotiate with anyway?"
(My comment: Navalny was publicly for the annexation of Crimea by Putin) It’s
the only possible transitional option, because none of the current elites will
be negotiated with. They (the West) will grant amnesty [it can only be earned
now in one way that greatly displeases GDP (Gross Domestic Product)], but with
nuance and within very narrow limits. And the more time ticks away, the less
amnesty they can bargain for.

So we have lots to look forward to: Fascism, terror, external conflict, collapse
of the nation, civil war. In isolation or in combination – it’s how the dice
will roll. A person in freefall from a skyscraper also has options: Can land
head-first, can aim for the asphalt with his legs, can try to scratch the wall
or vice versa – kick it away with his legs. But to pull it together and say:
“Stop, I am going back to the rooftop,” he cannot. Whether he be strong, brave,
stupid, desperate, or brilliant – once he’s in freefall, it doesn’t matter
anymore and can’t “return everything as it was.” This is about us today. (About
the entire Russia)



(END OF TRANSLATION of #FSBletters #8 from the #WindofChange)



 ============================

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Posted by Igor Sushko at 8:02 PM No comments:
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SUNDAY, MARCH 27, 2022


ALL #FSBLETTERS TRANSLATED AS OF MARCH 26TH, 2022 - CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER - LOOK
INSIDE



Before reading these #FSBletters from the #WindofChange, please watch/listen to
the following audio for the origin & context of these letters. This will allow
you to view & interpret these letters through the right prism. Please feel free
to share this page with anyone. (Please subscribe to the YouTube channel - if
there is enough interest then I will start posting video content concerning the
#FSBletters)







 * #1, MARCH 4TH, 2022 - TRANSLATION OF THE ALLEGED ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
   SITUATION IN RUSSIA BY AN ACTIVE FSB ANALYST (TWITTER THREAD)
   
 * #2, MARCH 5TH, 2022 - ACTIVE FSB ANALYST'S PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF
   VLADIMIR PUTIN (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #3, MARCH 5TH, 2022 - THE IMPENDING COLLAPSE OF RUSSIA ACCORDING TO AN ACTIVE
   FSB ANALYST (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #4 MARCH 11TH, 2022 - CHINA AND RUSSIA'S DOMESTIC INSANITY - 4TH LETTER FROM
   THE FSB ANALYST (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #5 MARCH 12TH, 2022 - $HIT'S ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN BETWEEN THE FSB & PUTIN -
   5TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #6  MARCH 13TH, 2022 - PUTIN EXPECTS THE WEST TO BLINK IN THE FACE OF HIS
   THREATS - 6TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #7 MARCH 14TH, 2022 - NO WAY OUT FOR PUTIN - 7TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF
   CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #8 - MARCH 16TH, 2022 - AHEAD FOR RUSSIA: FASCISM, TERROR, EXTERNAL CONFLICT,
   COLLAPSE OF THE NATION, CIVIL WAR (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #9 - COMING SOON
 * #10 - COMING SOON
 * #11 - MARCH 21ST, 2022 - PUTIN'S PLAN TO ATTACK POLAND & RUSSIAN
   CONCENTRATION CAMPS FOR KHERSON POPULATION (TWITTER THREAD)
 * #12, MARCH 26TH, 2022 - PUTIN'S PLAN TO REFRAME INVASION OF UKRAINE AS A
   RELIGIOUS WW3 - 12TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB (TWITTER
   THREAD)


Posted by Igor Sushko at 1:15 AM No comments:
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SATURDAY, MARCH 26, 2022


PUTIN'S PLAN TO REFRAME INVASION OF UKRAINE AS A RELIGIOUS WW3 - 12TH LETTER
FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB



Twitter: @igorsushko / Email: igor.sushko@protonmail.com

First, please watch this video in which I demystify & explain the origins of the
FSB letters from the Wind of Change to Vladimir Osechkin. This information will
arm you with the right prism through which to view & interpret all of the
#FSBletters. 




My translation of the 12th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to
Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/26 - TODAY. Please share far & wide.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's
start:


[PORTION REDACTED]

“… amount of blatantly fake intel dumps within the FSB has increased drastically
in order to try to catch the leakers (#WindOfChange & others).

The leaks are very problematic (for the FSB): every serious businessman,
politician, retiree, or dedicated penetrator has channels for getting
information, so the Service's excitement is understandable. (This means the FSB
is leaking like a sieve now - in all directions & to everyone)

For this reason, I cannot yet convey the information that needs to be conveyed
(because that could risk #WindofChange being identified). In a nutshell, we are
tearing our way to a new level of insanity. Everything is bad.

The main points about events that I can & should relay:

Bortnikov (Head of the FSB) managed to misdirect/deflect the brunt of criticism
away from the FSB. Now the main culprit is Shoigu – if it were not for his
catastrophic military miscalculation, then … (the Russian position wouldn’t be
this dire in Ukraine). This view is now supported by many people on all sides.

Now the only chance for the FSB [or its leadership] to survive – provide the
necessary facts about the high-ranking enemies in the country. (To place blame
for the failures in this war, like it was done with Shoigu)

The Communist Party & especially their regional representatives, very
high-ranking government officials, individual elected representatives, including
those in the Duma (The Russian parliament) – they’re being targeted (to blame)
with a level of intensity never seen before. And that was already being done
before, albeit pre-emptively. Exposing of the powerful players who aim to
overthrow the government should become a trend. “Enemies (of Putin) have already
surrounded the Kremlin, if we don’t do this, the country will perish.” That’s
the outlook.

War-time psychosis is growing into war-time lunacy.  I don’t have an explanation
for the dominant certainty among the leadership (not just in the FSB) that bets
on military escalation will yield a positive outcome.

The thinking is that the West started a war against Russia, and so
counter-offensive measures are needed in search of a compromise. And the
saber-rattling has its own logic: If the military situation on the borders is
inflamed (by Russia, raise tension) then even an accidental or an entirely
localized incident can lead to the military to respond based on established
protocols & instructions. (On Russian borders with countries beside Ukraine)

One accidental & small incident will be enough to lead to a large-scale
conflict, and “who started it” will be impossible to figure out. In all, the
“Gordian Knot” (see #FSBletters #6) is becoming more & more relevant & realistic
against the backdrop of the changing events.

Armenia – a terrorist threat, presumably – one of the Orthodox churches in
Gyumri. Two options: a bloody terrorist attack on civilians, the rapid arrest of
[our] perpetrators, who must have an Azerbaijani-Ukrainian connection (to blame
Ukraine for the attack). A Turkish-Kosovo trail is very desirable as well. 

This will allow:

- To politically block Azerbaijan's offensive potential in Karabakh due to the
almost complete transfer of our peacekeepers (#WindofChange is being sarcastic
in this reference to the Russian military) to Ukraine such a turn is inevitable
there, which severely affects Russia's position;

- Reframe the “Russian war against Nazism” to an “international war to protect
the (Christian) Orthodoxy” with a chance to widen the belt of support for
Russia, including inside territories of hostile governments;

- A chance for Serbia's offensive in Kosovo, which could be a trigger for a
broad front of territorial redistribution, when Hungary gets involved to
partition Ukraine, and other countries can start coming to a head against each
other. This will prevent Western countries from focusing specifically on Russia;

- To divert attention from Ukraine as a victim in the international arena,
creating a point of attention to the Armenian-Azerbaijani (Orthodox-Islamic)
standoff, which could also become a stumbling block for Europe and Turkey;

- A blow to the positions of the authorities in Yerevan (capital of Armenia),
which are considered extremely undesirable for the Kremlin.

Second scenario – a successful unmasking of the preparation of such terrorist
attack by our security services. (Attack on an Orthodox church in Armenia, which
would be planned by the FSB & then uncovered as the FSB). We don’t consider the
Armenian security services to be professional (competent), [as was the
assessment of the Ukrainian Armed forces until recently], so such an FSB success
inside Armenian territory (“the FSB helped prevent a terrorist attack!”) could
indebt Yerevan to Russia in terms of their participation within the CSTO
(Collective Security Treaty Organization, consisting of select post-Soviet
states). And all the other named objectives, if not as assertively, could be
achieved. (By preventing their own terrorist attack rather than actually
committing the terrorist attack)

No matter what people think of the FSB, but it’s the FSB that is pursuing the
2nd option (they’d rather be seen as heroes that saved lives in foiling a
terrorist attack instead of killing civilians in a terrorist attack). If the 1st
option is chosen (by the Kremlin), the practical parts of the plan will be
handled by the military rather than the FSB.

Serbia. An option similar to the Armenian one in Serbia has a much smaller
chance of any realization, but the risks are disproportionately higher. Almost
all of the risks are characterized as unacceptable - there are too many Western
secret services and their agents in Serbia, and it is extremely difficult to
control the situation on their territory.

Canada. Traditionally, we have looked at Canada as a British sixth-rank without
any serious independent weight, but now the situation has unfolded in such a way
that classical pressure on the political elites of the West is not working well.

The Western public's mass perception of the war in Ukraine, with unequivocal
support for the Ukrainian side, plays too big a role. And this is where Canada,
where the Ukrainian lobby is one of the most influential, has become all too
important, acting as a tacit center for the dissemination of such opinions.

For many years there has been a myth [the facts point to the unreliability of
the story, but for some reason it’s still considered "partly true"] that
Canadian special forces had once been deployed near Donetsk against DNR forces,
where they were easily destroyed by the National Front fighters. The level of
Canadians' preparedness for internal upheaval is also assessed as very low, so
this country may be chosen as a target for demonstrative destabilization. I'm
not able to provide sufficient answers to the question "why?" just yet, as
that's up to the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, analogous to the
CIA).

(Anatoly) Chubais (high-rank Putin advisor who defected from Russia as a result
of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine). I have said before that the risk of such
escapes from Russia by top-level representatives was tolerated. After Chubais'
emigration, control over everyone will intensify; instead of "soft prevention,"
very different measures may be taken. Almost all key figures have gone into
total silence; who and what they are up to is a surprise even to us. But no one
will be allowed to repeat Chubais's defection so easily - they are beginning to
guard without fooling around.

Demoralization. The level of demoralization may peak by mid-April. This
especially concerns the military most of all, but everyone else too. In the
meantime (to prevent the demoralization), a search for an extreme breakthrough
solution is considered necessary, that I don’t even know what it could be.

But it is from this perspective that new fronts [especially if military action
is initiated by Serbia] could allow for recalibration. It’s like using a
multitude of antidotes for poisonous spider bites: the risk that the antidote
will prove more deadly than the poison exists, but still, still, still. I'm not
making excuses for the situation – just relaying the observation.

China. To put it mildly, there is no equality in Moscow-Beijing relations.
Beijing is pathologically avoiding any publicity; Any discussion of “pressure on
China” on certain aspects is prohibited. (Russia has no leverage to pressure
China to do anything.)

Provoking China into war with Taiwan stings more than acceptable. (China might
make Russia pay for inciting such provocations)

But this is such a desirable outcome (for Russia, that China attacks Taiwan),
that it’s unlikely our people will stop trying. China is strongly resisting, and
they know how to block information too well (difficult for Kremlin propaganda to
penetrate China). The essence of negotiations (between Russia & China about
Taiwan) is not known to many.

About Shoigu. An extremely limited number of people know about his situation, so
it's impossible to get reliable information.

In terms of information that could not be concealed - highest level of threats
of assassination attempts on key figures of the (Russian) state. From covert
operatives to attempted point-blank strikes with high-precision weapons. I would
not claim paranoia – everything is possible.

From this perspective, the disappearance of Shoigu and Gerasimov can be
explained very simply - unprecedented personal security measures.

Oddities. There are too many strange things about our prisoners in Ukraine.
There is no insight into a number of high-ranking officers who are missing, but
who may be in captivity.

In this case, the question is why hasn’t the Ukrainian side presented such
significant trump cards?

There is information that there are psychologists and (agency) recruiters,
including foreigners [or rather, they are the core] working on prisoners in
Ukraine. (To turn these high-ranking officers against Russia)

It’s impossible to exclude the possibility that a new ROA (Russian Liberation
Army – captured Russian soldiers who fought against Stalin) is being formed from
the prisoners, and yet it’s impossible to confirm either.

That the captured Russians could form the backbone of regional separatist
movements inside Russia is a real threat. Which countries are involved in such
an exercise is an open question, as there is too little data.

There is reason to believe that individual countries are preparing "their"
regions. The risk zone is too vast: Siberia, Tatarstan, Yakutia, Khabarovsk.

Legal pitfalls. There are two mutually exclusive attitudes: keeping the
status-quo of a "special operation" and "preparing a broad involvement of
volunteers.”

Hence the mishap: only professional forces can participate in a special
operation (no conscripts).

No one will allow the events to be legally redefined as a war, but then the
"case of the volunteer" hangs in the air.

Minsk will not help with troops, then the CSTO will certainly not help. There is
no point in even discussing it at this point.

Kadyrov. Should the FSB need to detain someone in Chechnya (Hint: Kadyrov), now
it’s become completely realistic. And God help those repeating some threats of
issuing “an order to shoot to kill” the guests (Guests would be the FSB
detaining Kadyrov in Chechnya). But we give Kadyrov an "A" for his informational
coverage - a very talented blogger.



 ============================

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WEDNESDAY, MARCH 23, 2022


PUTIN'S PLAN TO ATTACK POLAND & RUSSIAN CONCENTRATION CAMPS FOR KHERSON
POPULATION





My translation of the 11th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB.
Subjects: Poland + Ukraine. Dated 3/21, that's today, & URGENT. Please share far
& wide.

I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's
start:

"You may recall that even before the war with Ukraine, I wrote you about the
preparations of anti-Polish provocations.

At that time, there was a catastrophically botched technical result when Polish
soldier Emil Chechko escaped to Belarus, who told of the hundreds and thousands
of refugees whom the Poles allegedly shot en-masse in the forests. (This claim
was blatantly false, failed RU psyop)

Well, it’s impossible to simply forget such prepared material, when the people
at the very top were involved in said preparation – it’s impossible to forget.
To forget – means to accept the plan as ineffective & problematic. In the
current situation that admission would threaten an exemplary flogging of the
people in charge.

In addition, the question of Poland as a new possible target has not been
dismissed and is not going to be dismissed. I will try to list the key points:

- Poland is the main supply channel for Ukraine. Including military supplies;

- Even in the case of a theoretical victory over Ukraine, although it is not
even clear what this might look like, it would be Poland that would become
"Ukraine in exile," reducing the effect of victory to a minimum;

- The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would mean Russia's defeat
in the eyes of both adversaries and neutral countries: such a powerful argument
for a local conflict would demonstrate military weakness, which not even
military success could override. Therefore, to possibly intimidate the West,
such strikes could, very much hypothetically, be carried out against Poland;
(Meaning as an empty threat only)

- The situation in Ukraine transforms Poland into a powerful economic
beneficiary with a simultaneous growth of absolute anti-Russian sentiments
there: a huge inflow of refugees, among whom there is a high percentage of both
the wealthy & young able-bodied, the role of Western aid transiting into the
country; assistance from other countries, etc. For Russia, and Belarus, too, the
example of Poland's rapid economic and military breakthrough is turning into a
huge threat;

- Poland is enlarging its own army, in addition, this is where Ukraine's
military can be withdrawn if Ukraine loses, and in Russia too many people in
power believe that there is clearly too much (for the Polish army) to defend,
which means Poland is preparing for an attack on Russia.

That is why a conditional "anti-Polish bridgehead" is now being actively
prepared. The dead Emil Chechko will also play his part: at any moment the
Polish special services will be accused of his murder, which will amount to an
"attack on Belarus" with the corresponding invocation of the clause on mutual
military assistance (between Russia & Belarus).

(Emil Chechko was allegedly found dead, hanged, in Belarus on March 17th, 2022.)

Medvedev's anti-Polish passage is also part of this "sentiment conditioning”
(preparing the Russian people to accept an attack on Poland as a necessity, and
shore up public support in Russia).

The only counterweight to this – absence of concrete strategy for Russian
leadership’s behavior.

When decisions are made literally on a knee-jerk and ad hoc basis, the risk for
mistakes goes off the charts, and any decisions already made can be changed just
as rapidly. But at the moment, the risks of a military operation against Poland
are steadily increasing, and there are no guarantees for anything in today's
Russia.

 

(INTERMISSION) (Will finish translation later. The rest is about Ukraine. I've
been going non-stop for weeks now and I am exhausted. Please see this thread for
insight on why I am doing this, and what I believe:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503475294316900353)





(Big takeaway, although unsurprising, from the 2nd half of the letter: Mass
"cleansing" is being planned for Kherson as they are unable to get the civilian
population to submit to Russian rule. Russian leadership has instructed those on
the ground to "stop playing with them" & )(a "Big Terror" will happen in
Kherson. Kremlin is prepared to eliminate up to half of Kherson's population of
~300,000, optics be damned, to get Kherson to submit on its knees to Russia.
Genocide. And - assertion that Russia has completed its transformation into a
fascist state)



(END OF INTERMISSION - TRANSLATION CONTINUES BELOW)

On the subject of Ukraine.

Even our staff’s mindset is rapidly changing for the worse. (I could think of
half-a-dozen distinct ways to interpret exactly what #WindofChange means here,
so I can’t offer clarification)

Cities that are under control of the Russian army are essentially in a constant
state of rebellion. If it were possible to identify the coordinators of the
protests, they’d be liquidated (killed). The saving grace for the Ukrainian
civilians there is that it is unclear who needs to be grabbed (by Russian
authorities). There are fears that attempts to conduct pinpoint brutality as
revenge (by Russian military against Ukrainian civilians) may result in a real
rebellion, which could then only be suppressed by a massacre of civilians. This
is completely negative option, and even the most reckless bosses here (FSB)
understand this.


However, there is a demand to “stop playing with them (occupied Ukrainian
civilians)” from the very top (Kremlin). There is fatigue from attempts to
create a pretty picture and to find an appropriate plan.

“Big Terror” is being planned for Kherson, which will go through several stages:

- A switch to extremely harsh methods of dispersing protestors by the Russian
authorities. Goal: To reduce the scale of the currently massive protests down to
local skirmishes, and to cause severe injuries to individual protestors.

- To strengthen the countermeasures, "partially civilian structures" may be
involved: Cossacks brought in from the LNR (Russia-occupied Luhansk oblast in
Ukraine, since 2014), Crimea and Russia itself, members of veteran
organizations, "combat wings," and so on.;

- Transition to local terror to “squeeze” people off the streets;

- As soon as the mass of protests is reduced, the final stage of “door-to-door
terror” will begin: here the FSB will play first fiddle and people will be
detained in their homes at night during curfew and transferred to Russian
territories (concentration camps & worse). It is assumed that protests will
cease completely after such cleansing – the remaining protesters will be
suppressed openly, as was the principle used to form the first Anti-Maidan in
Ukraine in 2014. We are prepared to remove half of the city if it becomes
necessary.



(Above is the description of the Kremlin/FSB plan, reference to “we” is
Kremlin/FSB & from context it is clear that #WindofChange does not want any part
of the “stop playing with them” plan for the occupied Kherson.)


Again, every new development showed that our people (Russian government) refused
to accept the reality of the responses (by Ukrainians) to our actions (Russian
government). (Meaning Ukrainian resistance to Russian actions control the
occupation have continued to surprise them)

Regardless, the plan for such suppression measures will be implemented – the
leadership does not see any other way as the current situation categorically
does not suit them. (#WindofChange's personal assessment that this plan will be
executed)


As for Russia, it is already impossible to rebound from the complete
transformation to fascism. (Russia is now a fascist state)


But in light of the extreme chaotization of all of the country's structures and
segments, fascism in Russia will take the form of indiscriminate large-scale
terror.


(#WindofChange asserts that unlike Hitler's Germany for example, another fascist
state, Kremlin lacks total control over domestic government & societal
structures, which will result in large-scale terror inside Russia to bring
everyone in line.)


To say that “Terror existed in Russia before” is not exactly correct because
everything is relative. It used to be bad, ahead of us is hell.


P.S. Many (Russian military) frontline lieutenants were killed at either
point-blank range or under strange circumstances. This issue is not being
disclosed & there is no hurry to investigate either.

I can’t affirm categorically, but there are indirect signs of refusals to follow
orders of “Forward! Forward! Forward!” (On the front in Ukraine by pretty
high-level Russian officers)

(END OF TRANSLATION)




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TUESDAY, MARCH 15, 2022


NO WAY OUT FOR PUTIN - 7TH LETTER FROM THE WIND OF CHANGE INSIDE THE FSB



My translation of the 7th #FSBletters from #WindofChange inside the FSB to
Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 14th EU time(~2 days ago). Covers
#WindofChange’s assessment of the Operation “Gordian Knot” that is being cooked
up by the Kremlin. The text is barely 1100 words.

Vladimir Osechkin is a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France since
2015. His years-long fight against systemic torture in Russian prisons
sanctioned & overseen by the Russian government began when he was still in
Russia and continues to this day.

There are some in the Russian intelligence services, such as the FSB, that
sympathize with his crusade to expose & end the horrible tortures in Russian
prisons. The 1st #FSBletters I translated is only the 1st since the invasion of
Ukraine. There are more that preceded it.

My comments for clarification of context, tone, and also nuance that can be
missed from translating from RU to EN are in parenthesis (). Author’s original
parenthesis are in brackets []. So, let's roll:

“Vladimir, good [REDACTED]!

I now have an opportunity (time) to briefly explain the previous letter (6th
#FSBletters)

The Iranians made some noise, but it turned out to be IRGC (Islamic
Revolutionary Guard) saber-rattling: they were aiming at Mossad (Israeli
intelligence agency) facilities, apparently based on intel that Mossad fed them
(IRGC didn’t know the info was coming from Mossad), but Mossad set them up them
up to hit US facilities instead. (MY COMMENT: Before people start freaking out –
1) Mossad likely fed bad coordinates to IRGC so there’s minimal damage & 2)
Mossad warned the US of the attack before it happened. No, Mossad did not
betray/setup US. It would’ve been done in coordination between Israel/US.)

Turns out, everything worked out, and our guys canceled the champagne: all
prerequisites are satisfied for concluding a nuclear deal (by the US) with Iran,
after which Iranian oil will start flowing (to the West), replacing Russian oil.

About the “Gordian Knot”

While sometimes share my own assessment as I see the situation, here (in the
prior #6 #FSBletters) I conveyed our (Russian government – Kremlin & FSB bosses)
vision and plans in the current situation. Such plans also have one more
important goal, beside the implementation, which can turn out like the
“Ukrainian Blitzkrieg”: internal psychological reassurance in the form of the
semblance of a solution. A sort of self-motivation or even self-sustainment.

Moreover, I can’t criticize the plan too strongly either: at least it has more
[technically speaking] objective factors than in previous bravura marches. (He
is describing the previous delusional plans as if they are military parade
marches – everyone just starts marching without thinking)

Europe, and most importantly France will start pressuring Zelensky (President of
Ukraine) to get him to capitulate: Their elections are just around the corner,
they think in terms of rather simple mercantile categories, and by and large,
assess the situation as impressively (sarcasm) as in the 30s of the last
century, when an ordinary Austrian artist actively involved himself in
geopolitics.

The attack of the Yavoriv facility by Lvov is just part of this general plan:
The attack was not on an ordinary Ukrainian military facility, but on a facility
of international importance, where there could very well have been active NATO
advisors.

The attack was intentionally carried out so that the trajectory of the missile
flight went through European (NATO) air. And the West’s reaction is playing
right into Russian plans: West is convinced that it can completely strangle
Russia without ever unsheathing its sword.



My personal conclusion – a large-scale international conflict is unfolding at a
rapid pace. (Domestically) Russia has aggressively mobilized the power resources
(riot police, etc.) and in classical terms we have entered the stage of
fascisization. (Russia is now a fascist country structurally) If the West is
hoping that we (Russia as a country) we will self-immolate in this mode, then we
(Russia as a whole) have blossoming panic-calls for large-scale external
aggression. The inevitability of the collapse of the nation (Russia) with the
systematic execution of the West’s strategy (in response to Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine) is obvious to many of us (author probably means FSB analysts, or maybe
Russian people in general). Therefore, many such people that were placing blame
squarely on Putin for his adventurism, albeit without vocalizing it, now
consider the option of external aggression as the only one left to survive:
“What else can we do?” (The nuance in Russian is critical to convey - he does
not place himself into the category people who think this way)

The attempt to force a rat into the corner to methodically crush it may not turn
out to have such a methodical result.

This of course is only my view, a subjective view, but that we have moved from
the stage of denying reality to working on addressing the question of resistance
is fact.

Yes, we no longer have an economy, nor do we have a capable army, but the
psychological readiness of the West for war is also assessed as even lower.

That Kiev would last 3 whole days was barely believed by anyone here on the
first day (of the invasion). That Ukraine would hold for 10 days – they didn’t
believe it in the Pentagon, nor in our Defense Ministry, nor anywhere else.

A new reality has arrived. There are no hopes for a “Victory in Ukraine” – even
the taking of Kiev would yield nothing, and even the taking of the entire
Ukraine would not lead to victory.
And the prospect of such a “capture” (of Kiyv or of Ukraine) do not appear very
realistic. To put it mildly.

And Russia has turned into a different nation: The war has affected everyone
psychologically.

The category of “how it used to be” has totally disappeared.



Current Russia has no survival outside of a military expansion regime.

The tiniest decrease in internal mobilization will lead to an unprecedented
internal upheaval – there is more steam under the lid than we can handle, so the
only technical solution is to redirect that steam toward other objects.

There is no place for Russia in the current political world order, inside Russia
there is no organizational resource capable of a systemic coup and a change of
power.

Takes time to reach a state of complete chaos, right here and now the large
scale system that is Russia will not fall apart [this is not Cuba with its
quantitative localization]. Minimal internal mobilization of the population will
be sufficient to redirect the attention of the population.

The question is no longer whether there will be an external war, but in its
forms and variations.

Not in the long-term [that no longer exists], but very soon.

Please note: Neither COVID nor the common cold is no longer observed. This is a
normal story when everyone & everything is mobilized. Afterward, of course there
will be relaxation and a “hangover,” but right now everyone is too involved in
what is happening – no one is indifferent.

The state from the effect of “action on adrenaline” is an extreme situation – it
is a characteristic state for both individuals and society as a whole. A Russia
beyond the boundaries of this state can no longer be observed. It is also
impossible to get stuck in this state – as I wrote before.

A rabbit, for example, can also sprint away from a threat without stopping -
until the heart bursts.

Therefore, the decision to "change the external environment" technically appears
to be without alternative.

Not a “correct” one (the decision), but precisely without alternative from the
point of view of the current system in Russia.
The situation in the world is such that the old format of coexistence is fully
destroyed.
 
Even if we allow that theoretically Shoigu (Russian Minister of Defence) will be
blamed for everything tomorrow, who “lied, slipped in false data and unleashed a
war,” and is “convicted and shot himself” - will change nothing with the West.

For the West, today’s Russia has become an unacceptable threat, and even the
departure of V.V. Putin will not change that calculus. For Germany in ’45 the
question of Hitler’s death also could not become an answer formulated as “The
guilty is dead, we are innocent.”

Overall, All old models of behavior & analysis – all this is now irrelevant.

A month ago, I would have considered a plan for a Ukrainian Blitzkrieg as
falsified, but today I consider a scenario of a large-scale international
conflict as quite possible.

Russia has approached this with an entire set of arguments, main one being – “We
have no other choice.” Why there is no other choice – is a question that is
always answered in very different ways.

The West will say that we started all this, we can say that we “were defending
ourselves, and you responded unreasonably.” And every point of view will have a
lot of followers.

Let me remind you for a second that Hitler did not force the population of
Germany into war - they wanted it much more than our population wants this war.

Of course, there is also a chance that our powers-that-be choose a traditional
strategy of “lets sit through this, wait it out, and we will see how it all
resolves.”

Previously, we practiced this strategy in cases of force majeure from the very
top.

But right now, I don’t really believe it: the processes in motion are so
large-scale and intense [in terms of time, in terms of emotions], so…

Of course, we can fall apart organizationally the moment an external campaign
starts [in any shape that could take].

We (Russia) could start an external war and not show up for it ourselves (entire
Russia) because of the internal disintegration that such a turn of events would
cause.

Here we are already talking about extreme [atypical] scenarios, which are
distinguished by the fact that they are almost not amenable to precise logical
analysis.

No analyst could’ve provided an overview of the results of the First or Second
World Wars before they began.

On the other hand, history remembers Idi Amin and his attempt to score a “little
win” against Tanzania.

But, unfortunately, the global scale of consequences of those actions and
current ones is monstrously different. It's not easy for us to rebound.

P.S. In our structure (in the FSB), everyone really misses t he good old days
when the "Toxin development facility" was recognized by the leadership as key
current threat to Russia's security.





(END OF TRANSLATION)

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