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Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
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   NWS All NOAA

Hazard Nov 06Nov 07Nov 08 Excessive Rainfall ModerateSlightSlight Heavy Snow (≥
4”)HighHighHigh Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area

WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
 
Winter Storm Severity Index
 
Experimental HeatRisk


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National Forecast Chart

Valid Wed Nov 6, 2024

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WPC Top Stories:

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1131 is currently in effect

Day 1 Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect

Understanding WPC's Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories

View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
weather
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
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Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 12Z Wed Nov 06, 2024
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+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024

...Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into
Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern
Gulf of Mexico lifts northward...

...Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern
Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days...

...Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael
forecast to pass not far too to the west tonight...

...Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
today...

As heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley gradually diminishes
today, tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation
centered over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is beginning to lift north
toward the Florida Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow
aloft. This weak low is a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael
farther south in the Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with
the weak low is forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy
rainfall tonight into Thursday morning across the interior section of the
Southeast. WPC currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across
central Georgia into portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy
rain event. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy rain associated with a
cold front early this morning along the Mississippi and Ohio Valley early
this morning is forecast to become more scattered in nature as today
progresses.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The National
Hurricane Center calls for Rafael to be a category-2 hurricane as it
passes not too far to the west of Key West tonight into Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida
Keys where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with
rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight.

As Rafael threatens the Florida Keys, a winter storm is brewing across the
southern Rockies. A vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south toward
the Four Corners early this morning, ushering a surge of polar air into
the region while developing an area of snow over the central Rockies into
the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in coverage and
pickup intensity as today progresses. The compact and vigorous nature of
this upper low will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of
central to southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within
Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the
upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger in
the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow
to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet snow
is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the
Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm
Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.

As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will fall to the 30s
and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots
for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with
lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few
days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior
California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions
highlighted for southern California today with an extreme area in the
vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. In
contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records
today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as
scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving
across the Mississippi Valley.


Kong/Campbell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024

...Watching Hurricane Rafael as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico
toward the Central Gulf Coast...


...Overview...

An upper high will remain anchored over or just north of the
Bahamas through the period, with ridges extending out from this
high into the Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. at times. The
National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories for
Hurricane Rafael which should weaken in a few days as it tracks
closer to the central Gulf Coast. The combination of Rafael's
moisture and a frontal system supported by an upper low ejecting
northeast from the Plains may produce some areas of locally heavy
rainfall from the Gulf Coast northward. Meanwhile, a series of
Pacific systems will increase coverage of rain and higher elevation
snow over the West from the weekend into early next week. Much of
the East should see above normal temperatures through the period
while the southern Rockies will start the weekend on the chilly
side and cooler temperatures will spread across the West next week.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

For Hurricane Rafael, there is still considerable guidance spread
(as the 00Z UKMET switched to a western/southwestern Gulf track
versus bringing it to the central Gulf Coast) but overall the
majority of dynamical/machine learning (ML) guidance is gradually
narrowing the solution spread with a track approaching the central
Gulf Coast. The system should also weaken as it reaches the
northern Gulf, with latest guidance unsure of whether it will get
lifted northward/northeastward or continue meandering over the
Gulf. Continue to monitor latest NHC products for additional
information on Rafael.

A model average has provided a fairly consistent forecast of the
upper low ejecting from the Plains, but guidance has been more
erratic with details of a shortwave that enters western North
America during the weekend and may have some influence on the
remaining upper low energy by the start of next week (with some
debate over which energy may be more pronounced at that time).
This leads to uncertainty for some details of the frontal system
reaching the Northeast.

There are continued timing and amplitude differences for the larger
scale trough moving into/through the West early next week, with GFS
runs leaning slower and ECMWF faster. Latest ML models show a
similar spread, arguing for a blend/compromise approach. This also
mitigates issues for how energy may be distributed within the upper
trough by the middle of next week, with individual solutions
ranging between greater dynamics in the northern part of the
trough, or farther south, to an evenly phased trough. A compromise
also looks best for the next system that may come into the picture
over the northeastern Pacific by next Wednesday.

Overall a blend of the 12Z/18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, and the 18Z GEFS/12Z
ECens means provided the most agreeable starting point for the
forecast overall, with more operational model weight early nearly
even model/mean weight by next Tuesday-Wednesday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The combination of the Plains system pushing into the Mississippi
Valley and moisture from Rafael, which is forecast to be south of
the central Gulf Coast by the weekend, will lead to the potential
for some areas of heavy rainfall between the central Gulf Coast and
Lower Ohio Valley. While there is still spread in the guidance for
where the moisture axis will be, clustering is significantly
improved from just 24 hours ago. The Day 4 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook valid Saturday-Saturday night maintains a Marginal Risk
area across this region. It will take additional time to see if
guidance resolves details sharply enough to merit an embedded
Slight Risk. By Sunday, guidance signals become more diffuse along
the front in the east-central U.S., leaving just the central Gulf
Coast region with somewhat elevated potential for heavy rainfall
due to the continued proximity of Rafael and meriting a Marginal
Risk area in the Day 5 ERO. Some rainfall may linger beyond Sunday
but most of the East should trend drier by Monday-Tuesday. Also of
note, a wave tracking from the southern Bahamas into the eastern
Gulf may increase rainfall over Florida around Sunday-Monday.

The West will see a wetter regime with high elevation snow,
starting in the Pacific Northwest and then spreading farther
south into parts of California and east into the Rockies. Highest
totals should be in the Sunday-Monday time frame with a vigorous
upper trough and frontal system approaching/reaching the area.
While there is still a fair amount of spread for QPF magnitudes,
first-guess guidance is showing enough of a signal to introduce a
Marginal Risk area in the Day 5 ERO over parts of the Pacific
Northwest where initial soil conditions are neutral to damp.
Another system may bring additional focused precipitation to the
Pacific Northwest next Wednesday. Depending on western upper trough
progression, some rainfall may develop over the central U.S. by the
middle of next week.

Except for the Great Lakes into New England during the weekend,
the eastern half of the country will likely see above normal
temperatures through the period. Warmest anomalies should be for
morning lows, reaching 20-25F above normal on one or more days over
the South and extending a little farther northeastward at times.
Coverage of plus 10-15F anomalies for highs should increase going
from the weekend into the first half of next week. Corresponding to
these relative anomalies, there will be better potential for some
record warm lows versus more isolated records for daytime highs.
The northern Plains will also be well above normal until a cooling
trend Tuesday-Wednesday, while the southern Plains will be warmest
early next week. Chilly temperatures over the southern Rockies/High
Plains will gradually moderate much of the West will be near
normal during the weekend. The upper trough pushing into the West
next week will expand the coverage of below normal temperatures
from west to east.

Rausch


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 00Z Thu Nov 14 2024

A cold front now reaching the region should stall and dissipate,
while strong northeasterly winds prevail late this week. Expect
trades to remain brisk while turning more easterly during the
weekend as high pressure passes by to the north. Then winds
should be easterly or east-southeasterly through the early-middle
part of next week. Central Pacific pattern differences arise
toward midweek, with dynamical/machine learning (ML) guidance
split as to how much of a front/inverted trough there may be off
to the west of the main islands--affecting the orientation of
trades over the state. At the very least, 18Z/00Z GFS runs may be
a little too far east with their feature by next Wednesday.

It took a number of days, but the 00Z ECMWF finally resembles
other guidance more closely for shearing trough energy that likely
consolidates into a weak upper low over/south of the state from
late week onward. However the latest ML runs and most other
dynamical solutions advertise a slightly farther south and west
low track versus the ECMWF, favoring an evolution closer to the
GFS. Windward/mountain-focused showers should trend lighter late
this week as moisture declines to below climatology, followed by
some increase around the weekend and/or early next week due to
flow around the upper low. Precipitable water values may decline
a bit thereafter.

Rausch



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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 16Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

1600Z Update...

A Marginal Risk area has been added to portions of central to
northeast LA and also a small part of southwest MS to account for
the ongoing slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
across the region that are focusing along and out ahead of a
quasi-stationary front. Please consult MPD #1131 for more details
on this. Convective trends across this region will continue to be
closely monitored through the afternoon hours for additional
convective development.

Elsewhere, the 12Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR guidance continues
to support the development and expansion of broken areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms across the interior of the Southeast
beginning later this afternoon and heading into the overnight
hours. However, there has been a trend to concentrate the heaviest
convective rainfall threat a bit farther south and east and a bit
deeper into the coastal plain of southern and eastern GA and the SC
Lowcountry. Additionally, there are multiple HREF models that are
quite heavy with the rainfall potential across parts of the FL
Panhandle. Regionally, the potential exists for as much as 4 to 8
inches of rain, with some isolated 10+ inch totals being supported
by 12Z/Thursday. The 12Z HREF guidance shows 50 to 80 percent
probabilities of seeing 5+ inches of rain from eastern parts of the
FL Panhandle northeastward into the SC Lowcountry, and in a focused
manner across parts of east-central GA and along the SC border,
there are 60 to 80 percent probabilities of seeing 8+ inch
rainfall totals. The heavy rains are again expected to be the
result of increasing moisture transport poleward of Hurricane
Rafael and interaction with an inverted surface trough, and with
right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics providing deeper
layer ascent. Given the setup, which will favor rainfall rates of 2
to 3+ inches/hour and these impressive totals, there will be a
strong concern for areas of high-impact flash flooding. These
latest trends have necessitated the need to adjust the Slight and
Moderate Risk areas farther south and east.

Related to Hurricane Rafael, there may be some potential for outer bands
of convection to impact portions of the lower FL Keys going through
tonight, and as a result the Marginal Risk area has been maintained
for this area.

Orrison


Previous discussion...

In coordination with CAE/Columbia, SC and FFC/Peachtree City, GA
forecast offices, a Moderate Risk upgrade was introduced with this
update.

A plume of deep tropical moisture, indirectly associated with
Hurricane Rafael will continue overspreading portions of the
Southeast today. The moisture plume will run into a developing
front over Georgia and South Carolina. An upper level jet streak
will add lift to the atmosphere. Late today into this evening, the
nocturnal low level jet's strengthening will kick the moisture
advection into high gear. Frontogenesis occurring over Georgia and
South Carolina will act to focus the heavy rain over the narrow
Moderate Risk corridor. Expect training convection to develop
during the evening which will persist through the overnight and
while slowly weakening in the pre-dawn hours, is likely to continue
into western South Carolina into Day 2/Thursday.

HREF probabilities show a 20 to 25 percent chance of a 100 year
rainfall event in the Moderate Risk area. FFGs are very high in the
area due to recent dry conditions with only very light rain. This
has likely made some of the clay soils quite hydrophobic. The
hydrophobic soils will likely increase the runoff from the heavy
rain, which will likely quickly exceed FFGs as the heavy rain
likely persists for multiple hours.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...Southeast...

Heavy rain will be ongoing across Georgia and especially South
Carolina at the start of the period Thursday morning. While the
rainfall will be diminishing in intensity, it's expected after the
much heavier rains of Wednesday night, that the lighter totals
forecast for Thursday will still be influential since antecedent
conditions will be radically different by then as compared to where
they are now. The Slight Risk threat largely is for the Thursday
morning period with lingering rainfall from Wednesday night. Expect
the rain to continue diminishing through the day as the moisture
plume shifts westward with Hurricane Rafael.

...Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma...

A positively tilted longwave trough and associated upper level
energy in the form of jet streaks and shortwave energy will support
the development of a strong low over the southern Plains. To the
west, a significant amount of the low's moisture will fall in the
form of snow. Where the precipitation will remain as rain, expect
steady heavy rain across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
While rates are not generally expected to be notably heavy, the
flood threat will be primarily focused on the long duration of
steady rain, as well as the fact that much of this area was hit
very hard with heavy rain a few days ago, so soils and rivers
remain elevated in this region. Thus, low FFGs support the Slight
Risk upgrade.

Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

The upper level low over the Southwest will eject into the Plains
on Friday. There will be significant upper level energy associated
with the low, which combined with strong frontogenesis, plentiful
Gulf moisture advecting up the Plains on the low level jet, and a
strengthening surface low...expect heavier rainfall amounts across
Oklahoma and Kansas on Friday as compared with Wednesday. While
north Kansas didn't see as much rain a few days back compared with
areas further south...much of the rest of the Slight risk area does
overlap with both the heavy rain from a few days ago but continued
rainfall from Day 2/Thursday. Thus, added an internal higher-end
Slight for western Oklahoma into south Kansas. Depending on how
much rain the area gets on Day 2, there is some potential for a
Moderate Risk upgrade in this area with future updates.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024


The combination of the Plains system pushing into the Mississippi
Valley and moisture from Rafael, which is forecast to be south of
the central Gulf Coast by the weekend, will lead to the potential
for some areas of heavy rainfall between the central Gulf Coast and
Lower Ohio Valley. While there is still spread in the guidance for
where the moisture axis will be, clustering is significantly
improved from just 24 hours ago. The Day 4 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook valid Saturday-Saturday night maintains a Marginal Risk
area across this region. It will take additional time to see if
guidance resolves details sharply enough to merit an embedded
Slight Risk. By Sunday, guidance signals become more diffuse along
the front in the east-central U.S., leaving just the central Gulf
Coast region with somewhat elevated potential for heavy rainfall
due to the continued proximity of Rafael and meriting a Marginal
Risk area in the Day 5 ERO. Some rainfall may linger beyond Sunday
but most of the East should trend drier by Monday-Tuesday. Also of
note, a wave tracking from the southern Bahamas into the eastern
Gulf may increase rainfall over Florida around Sunday-Monday.

The West will see a wetter regime with high elevation snow,
starting in the Pacific Northwest and then spreading farther
south into parts of California and east into the Rockies. Highest
totals should be in the Sunday-Monday time frame with a vigorous
upper trough and frontal system approaching/reaching the area.
While there is still a fair amount of spread for QPF magnitudes,
first-guess guidance is showing enough of a signal to introduce a
Marginal Risk area in the Day 5 ERO over parts of the Pacific
Northwest where initial soil conditions are neutral to damp.
Another system may bring additional focused precipitation to the
Pacific Northwest next Wednesday. Depending on western upper trough
progression, some rainfall may develop over the central U.S. by the
middle of next week.

Except for the Great Lakes into New England during the weekend,
the eastern half of the country will likely see above normal
temperatures through the period. Warmest anomalies should be for
morning lows, reaching 20-25F above normal on one or more days over
the South and extending a little farther northeastward at times.
Coverage of plus 10-15F anomalies for highs should increase going
from the weekend into the first half of next week. Corresponding to
these relative anomalies, there will be better potential for some
record warm lows versus more isolated records for daytime highs.
The northern Plains will also be well above normal until a cooling
trend Tuesday-Wednesday, while the southern Plains will be warmest
early next week. Chilly temperatures over the southern Rockies/High
Plains will gradually moderate much of the West will be near
normal during the weekend. The upper trough pushing into the West
next week will expand the coverage of below normal temperatures
from west to east.

Rausch



Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024


The combination of the Plains system pushing into the Mississippi
Valley and moisture from Rafael, which is forecast to be south of
the central Gulf Coast by the weekend, will lead to the potential
for some areas of heavy rainfall between the central Gulf Coast and
Lower Ohio Valley. While there is still spread in the guidance for
where the moisture axis will be, clustering is significantly
improved from just 24 hours ago. The Day 4 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook valid Saturday-Saturday night maintains a Marginal Risk
area across this region. It will take additional time to see if
guidance resolves details sharply enough to merit an embedded
Slight Risk. By Sunday, guidance signals become more diffuse along
the front in the east-central U.S., leaving just the central Gulf
Coast region with somewhat elevated potential for heavy rainfall
due to the continued proximity of Rafael and meriting a Marginal
Risk area in the Day 5 ERO. Some rainfall may linger beyond Sunday
but most of the East should trend drier by Monday-Tuesday. Also of
note, a wave tracking from the southern Bahamas into the eastern
Gulf may increase rainfall over Florida around Sunday-Monday.

The West will see a wetter regime with high elevation snow,
starting in the Pacific Northwest and then spreading farther
south into parts of California and east into the Rockies. Highest
totals should be in the Sunday-Monday time frame with a vigorous
upper trough and frontal system approaching/reaching the area.
While there is still a fair amount of spread for QPF magnitudes,
first-guess guidance is showing enough of a signal to introduce a
Marginal Risk area in the Day 5 ERO over parts of the Pacific
Northwest where initial soil conditions are neutral to damp.
Another system may bring additional focused precipitation to the
Pacific Northwest next Wednesday. Depending on western upper trough
progression, some rainfall may develop over the central U.S. by the
middle of next week.

Except for the Great Lakes into New England during the weekend,
the eastern half of the country will likely see above normal
temperatures through the period. Warmest anomalies should be for
morning lows, reaching 20-25F above normal on one or more days over
the South and extending a little farther northeastward at times.
Coverage of plus 10-15F anomalies for highs should increase going
from the weekend into the first half of next week. Corresponding to
these relative anomalies, there will be better potential for some
record warm lows versus more isolated records for daytime highs.
The northern Plains will also be well above normal until a cooling
trend Tuesday-Wednesday, while the southern Plains will be warmest
early next week. Chilly temperatures over the southern Rockies/High
Plains will gradually moderate much of the West will be near
normal during the weekend. The upper trough pushing into the West
next week will expand the coverage of below normal temperatures
from west to east.

Rausch



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Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024


...Central/Southern Rockies and Adjacent High Plains...
Days 1-3...

Upper low at the base of a larger western CONUS trough lies over
southeastern UT this morning, and will continue sinking southward
today into AZ. It will slowly detach from the northern stream and
cut off as it wobbles southward then eastward into southern NM by
early Friday. Then, feeling the push of the subtropical jet, it
will lift northeastward across the northern TX Panhandle and far
western OK Panhandle to the CO/KS border by early Saturday. The
slow movement of the upper low combined with a fairly steady
stretch of moisture as well as upslope enhancement will lead to
significant snow accumulations in parts of the NM mountains and
across the CO line along the Sangre de Cristo range. Impacts may be
major to extreme in some locations.

For D1, frontal boundary over southeastern CO on the edge of the
height falls will see modest to locally heavy snow continue this
morning in an area of surface convergence and beneath bouts of PVA.
Through the day, as the upper low tucks farther southwest of CO,
heights should rise and the snow should lessen. Nevertheless,
snowfall rates of >1"/hr should yield an additional several inches
near/south of DEN and eastward over the High Plains. There, WPC
probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow after 12Z are moderate
(40-70%). Farther south over NM, closer to the stream of moisture
and vort maxes rotating around the upper low center, snow will
increase in intensity over much of the NM terrain where snowfall
just on D1 will likely exceed 8 inches (probabilities >70%) in the
terrain (e.g., Sangre de Cristos/Raton Mesa/Jemez Mnts).

By D2, slow movement of the upper low will allow for continued
snowfall to its east via persistent IVT values near/above the 90th
percentile. This could result in 1-2ft of snow over the NM terrain
(WPC probabilities for at least 12 inches are >70% over much of
northeastern NM) along with areas of blowing/drifting snow eastward
into the western OK Panhandle. Snow will continue over northern NM
into southern CO along the Sangre de Cristos and onto the High
Plains as the upper low sloshes toward the TX/OK Panhandles.
Moisture source will add in then largely switch to the western
Gulf, wrapping around the upper low and capitalizing on upslope
from the northeast through the column. Snow will finally start to
taper off by the end of the period (early Saturday).

All told, 3-day WPC probabilities for at least 24 inches of snow
are >50% above 6000-7000ft over the Sangre de Cristos and Raton
Mesa, with a large footprint of at least 6 inches over much of
eastern CO southward into central NM.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso






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Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024

...Watching Hurricane Rafael as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico
toward the Central Gulf Coast...


...Overview...

An upper high will remain anchored over or just north of the
Bahamas through the period, with ridges extending out from this
high into the Gulf of Mexico and eastern U.S. at times. The
National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories for
Hurricane Rafael which should weaken in a few days as it tracks
closer to the central Gulf Coast. The combination of Rafael's
moisture and a frontal system supported by an upper low ejecting
northeast from the Plains may produce some areas of locally heavy
rainfall from the Gulf Coast northward. Meanwhile, a series of
Pacific systems will increase coverage of rain and higher elevation
snow over the West from the weekend into early next week. Much of
the East should see above normal temperatures through the period
while the southern Rockies will start the weekend on the chilly
side and cooler temperatures will spread across the West next week.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

For Hurricane Rafael, there is still considerable guidance spread
(as the 00Z UKMET switched to a western/southwestern Gulf track
versus bringing it to the central Gulf Coast) but overall the
majority of dynamical/machine learning (ML) guidance is gradually
narrowing the solution spread with a track approaching the central
Gulf Coast. The system should also weaken as it reaches the
northern Gulf, with latest guidance unsure of whether it will get
lifted northward/northeastward or continue meandering over the
Gulf. Continue to monitor latest NHC products for additional
information on Rafael.

A model average has provided a fairly consistent forecast of the
upper low ejecting from the Plains, but guidance has been more
erratic with details of a shortwave that enters western North
America during the weekend and may have some influence on the
remaining upper low energy by the start of next week (with some
debate over which energy may be more pronounced at that time).
This leads to uncertainty for some details of the frontal system
reaching the Northeast.

There are continued timing and amplitude differences for the larger
scale trough moving into/through the West early next week, with GFS
runs leaning slower and ECMWF faster. Latest ML models show a
similar spread, arguing for a blend/compromise approach. This also
mitigates issues for how energy may be distributed within the upper
trough by the middle of next week, with individual solutions
ranging between greater dynamics in the northern part of the
trough, or farther south, to an evenly phased trough. A compromise
also looks best for the next system that may come into the picture
over the northeastern Pacific by next Wednesday.

Overall a blend of the 12Z/18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, and the 18Z GEFS/12Z
ECens means provided the most agreeable starting point for the
forecast overall, with more operational model weight early nearly
even model/mean weight by next Tuesday-Wednesday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The combination of the Plains system pushing into the Mississippi
Valley and moisture from Rafael, which is forecast to be south of
the central Gulf Coast by the weekend, will lead to the potential
for some areas of heavy rainfall between the central Gulf Coast and
Lower Ohio Valley. While there is still spread in the guidance for
where the moisture axis will be, clustering is significantly
improved from just 24 hours ago. The Day 4 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook valid Saturday-Saturday night maintains a Marginal Risk
area across this region. It will take additional time to see if
guidance resolves details sharply enough to merit an embedded
Slight Risk. By Sunday, guidance signals become more diffuse along
the front in the east-central U.S., leaving just the central Gulf
Coast region with somewhat elevated potential for heavy rainfall
due to the continued proximity of Rafael and meriting a Marginal
Risk area in the Day 5 ERO. Some rainfall may linger beyond Sunday
but most of the East should trend drier by Monday-Tuesday. Also of
note, a wave tracking from the southern Bahamas into the eastern
Gulf may increase rainfall over Florida around Sunday-Monday.

The West will see a wetter regime with high elevation snow,
starting in the Pacific Northwest and then spreading farther
south into parts of California and east into the Rockies. Highest
totals should be in the Sunday-Monday time frame with a vigorous
upper trough and frontal system approaching/reaching the area.
While there is still a fair amount of spread for QPF magnitudes,
first-guess guidance is showing enough of a signal to introduce a
Marginal Risk area in the Day 5 ERO over parts of the Pacific
Northwest where initial soil conditions are neutral to damp.
Another system may bring additional focused precipitation to the
Pacific Northwest next Wednesday. Depending on western upper trough
progression, some rainfall may develop over the central U.S. by the
middle of next week.

Except for the Great Lakes into New England during the weekend,
the eastern half of the country will likely see above normal
temperatures through the period. Warmest anomalies should be for
morning lows, reaching 20-25F above normal on one or more days over
the South and extending a little farther northeastward at times.
Coverage of plus 10-15F anomalies for highs should increase going
from the weekend into the first half of next week. Corresponding to
these relative anomalies, there will be better potential for some
record warm lows versus more isolated records for daytime highs.
The northern Plains will also be well above normal until a cooling
trend Tuesday-Wednesday, while the southern Plains will be warmest
early next week. Chilly temperatures over the southern Rockies/High
Plains will gradually moderate much of the West will be near
normal during the weekend. The upper trough pushing into the West
next week will expand the coverage of below normal temperatures
from west to east.

Rausch


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

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