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Iran, Russia, and the Syrian Regime are Coordinating to Expel US Forces from
Syria

A new report on the situation in Syria by Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna
Moore, and Brian Carter

August 3, 2023

How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed

 
The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite limited progress made in the
counteroffensive so far. Read ISW's latest op-ed in TIME. 

Follow ISW on social media

Keep up to date with all of ISW's daily updates, reports, and Briefing Room
videos by follow us on our social media platforms:

Coalition Defense of Taiwan

This page collects links to products and other resources related to the
Coalition Defense of Taiwan, a new collaboration between the Institute for the
Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

Interactive Time Lapse - One Year of War

See ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW
produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will add new time-lapses to
our on a monthly basis.

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LATEST FROM ISW


IRAN UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Sep 1, 2023 - Press ISW

Key Takeaways

Iran and the Syrian regime are exploiting instability in eastern Syria to pose a
greater threat to US forces there.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) trained
Russian forces in Syria to operate Iranian-made drones.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed anti-Israel
operations with leaders from the Axis of Resistance in Beirut.

The Ebrahim Raisi administration is continuing to set conditions to resume
nuclear negotiations with the West to achieve a comprehensive deal.

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, September 1, 2023


CHINA-TAIWAN WEEKLY UPDATE, AUGUST 31, 2023

Sep 1, 2023 - Press ISW

Key Takeaways

Foxconn founder Guo Taiming (Terry Gou) announced his campaign for president of
the Republic of China (ROC) as an independent candidate. His entrance will
likely further divide non-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters, thereby
increasing the chance of the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te (William Lai) winning
the race.

The Central American Parliament expelled the ROC as an observer. This advances a
CCP coercion campaign to politically control Taiwan.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) began employing new flight
patterns on August 24 in the Republic of China (Taiwan) air defense
identification zone (ADIZ) likely to complicate and reduce Taiwan’s decision
response timeline.

 


 * Read more about China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 31, 2023


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

Sep 1, 2023 - Press ISW

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the
Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th
CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally
redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
Budanov stated on August 31 that the Russian military deployed elements of the
newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (reportedly formed under the Eastern
Military District) to replace elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central
Military District) in the Kupyansk direction, and that these elements of the
41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) began a “slow” redeployment to an unspecified area
in southern Ukraine. Elements of the 41st CAA’s 35th Separate Guards Motorized
Rifle Brigade and 90th Tank Division participated in the failed Russian winter
2023 offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast and have continued limited offensive
activity along the Svatove-Kreminna line through now. These units are likely
degraded and have been operating without brigade and regiment level rotations
like many frontline Russian units throughout the theater. ISW previously
assessed that a lack of operational reserves would force the Russian command to
conduct further lateral redeployments and make tough decisions about what
sectors of the front to prioritize.The Russian military command appears to have
deployed elements of the newly formed and likely low quality or understrength
25th CAA to Luhansk Oblast to free up the relatively more effective 41st CAA
elements for southern Ukraine. Budanov added that elements of the 25th CAA are
already participating in hostilities in Luhansk Oblast.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2023


SALAFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT WEEKLY UPDATE, AUGUST 31, 2023

Aug 31, 2023 - Press ISW

Iraq and Syria. Local tribes are resisting the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF)
campaign against the Deir ez Zor Military Council (DMC), which could enable ISIS
to re-embed itself into in local Sunni Deir ez Zor tribes.

Pakistan. Pakistan deployed security forces to protect state energy
infrastructure from ongoing protests. The protests may continue through
mid-September because the Pakistani government cannot address the issues that
prompted them. Deploying additional police to address the protests could disrupt
Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban are conducting an information campaign that
frames Tajikistan as responsible for the actions of Islamic State Khorasan
Province (ISKP). The framing aims to deflect responsibility for the Taliban’s
inability to defeat ISKP and prevent attacks beyond Afghanistan.

 


 * Read more about Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, August 31, 2023


IRAN UPDATE, AUGUST 31, 2023

Aug 31, 2023 - Press ISW

Key Takeaways

Iranian-backed militias have continued to deploy into territory held by the
US-backed SDF in northeastern Syria to conduct assassinations and fuel tribal
disputes. These efforts support the Iranian campaign to expel the United States
from Syria.

Iranian-backed militias have reportedly deployed from Iraq to Damascus for
protest suppression. These deployments highlight the capacity of the IRGC to
manage multiple efforts in Syria simultaneously.

The Iranian foreign affairs minister affirmed Tehran's intent to maintain a
long-term military presence in Syria.

A senior Iranian nuclear official downplayed the threat of the Iranian nuclear
program during an Arabic-language interview with Al Jazeera, possibly to assuage
Saudi concerns about Iranian nuclear activities and discourage Saudi leaders
from building their own program.

 


 * Read more about Iran Update, August 31, 2023


RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 31, 2023

Aug 31, 2023 - Press ISW

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk
Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 31 and reportedly advanced in
both sectors of the front. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Deputy
Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive
operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions
and achieved unspecified success in the direction of
Novodanylivka-Novoprokopivka (5km to 13km south of Orikhiv) in western
Zaporizhia Oblast. Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified
success in the Bakhmut direction. Ukrainian Chief of the Main Directorate of
Missile Forces and Artillery and Unmanned Systems of the General Staff Brigadier
General Serhiy Baranov stated that Ukrainian forces have reached parity in
counterbattery capabilities with Russian forces. Baranov stated that
NATO-provided artillery systems with ranges of 30km to 40km allow Ukrainian
forces to destroy Russian artillery systems and force Russian forces to move
their artillery further from the frontline. Ukrainian officials previously made
statements in late July indicating that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign is
successfully degrading Russian counterbattery capabilities. Russian sources have
repeatedly expressed concerns since mid-July over the lack of Russian
counterbattery artillery capabilities, particularly in southern Ukraine.

 


 * Read more about Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 31, 2023


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THE ISW BRIEFING ROOM




FEATURED REPORT

Ukraine Conflict Updates

Aug 15, 2022




This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late
February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events
related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.


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