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AMIS
Market Monitor July 2024
04 Jul 2024
Wheat prices are ebbing under the harvest pressure from the northern hemisphere.
Fresh supplies from the southern hemisphere are doing the same for maize prices,
[...]
Donald Boucher of Canada (right) - pictured next to Seth Meyer of the United
States.
Canada taking over as the new Chair of AMIS
21 Jun 2024
Canada is the new AMIS Chair, represented by Mr. Donald
Boucher, Director-General, Sector Development and Analysis Directorate,
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Mr. Boucher is taking over this [...]
© United Soybean Board
Navigating vegetable oil markets amidst shifts in biofuel policies
07 Jun 2024
Accounting for about a quarter of global energy use, transportation is a major
contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. Against this background,
transitioning to renewable [...]
© AMIS/Drechsler
Farmer protests underscore challenges in agrifood system transformation
11 Mar 2024
From the United Kingdom to India, from Spain to the borders of Ukraine, farmers
across the world have been taking to the streets. While the [...]


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last release: 4 July 2024


MARKETS AT A GLANCE

 * overview
 * wheat
 * maize
 * rice
 * soybean

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Wheat prices are ebbing under the harvest pressure from the northern hemisphere.
Fresh supplies from the southern hemisphere are doing the same for maize prices,
even as harvests in Argentina and Brazil are likely to fall short of
expectations. Exceptionally wet weather in parts of the European Union could
bring up quality concerns for wheat. May 2024 was the 12th consecutive month of
record-breaking global temperatures. Should this trend persist, there will
likely be negative impacts on agriculture from extreme heat, particularly if
heat occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages
that determine final yields.

2023/24

2024/25

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

788.1

786.7

789.1

Supply

1108.3

1098.5

1102.0

Utilization

801.2

794.0

795.5

Trade

204.6

198.0

197.1

Ending Stocks

312.9

306.8

308.4

in million tonnes

 * Wheat production in 2024 raised slightly with improved prospects in several
   countries, including China, India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Türkiye, and
   Ukraine, outweighing a downward revision in the Russian Federation.
 * Utilization in 2024/25 lifted marginally, mostly reflecting higher forecast
   in Pakistan due to larger domestic supplies, but overall still heading for a
   slight decline from 2023/24.
 * Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) trimmed on smaller imports expected for India
   and Türkiye, and downgraded exports for the Russian Federation.
 * Stocks (ending in 2025) have been revised upwards slightly, reflecting higher
   estimates in China, the European Union, and Kazakhstan, but are still
   forecast to decline by 1.4 percent below opening levels.

2023/24

2024/25

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

1239.9

1222.0

1226.3

Supply

1527.8

1535.5

1537.6

Utilization

1215.6

1224.1

1226.9

Trade

193.1

183.7

184.7

Ending Stocks

311.3

324.5

319.7

in million tonnes

 * Maize production in 2024 lifted slightly m/m, on larger outputs in Argentina,
   Brazil, Türkiye, and Ukraine, but still forecast to decline below the 2023
   level by 1.1 percent.
 * Utilization in 2024/25 scaled up marginally, mostly on higher forecast in
   Brazil, and expected to increase by 0.9 percent above the 2023/24 level.
 * Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) predicted to decline by 4.4 percent from 2023/24
   despite an upward revision reflecting larger expected exports from Ukraine,
   and bigger purchases by China and Zambia.
 * Stocks (ending 2025) cut m/m, largely due to lower estimates in Brazil and
   Ukraine, but still forecast to increase above opening levels by 2.7 percent.

2023/24

2024/25

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

530.2

534.9

535.1

Supply

726.0

734.6

734.5

Utilization

525.1

531.4

531.5

Trade

51.1

53.4

53.1

Ending Stocks

199.5

205.1

204.9

in million tonnes

 * Rice production essentially unchanged m/m, amid only small upward adjustments
   to production in Australia, Brazil and Ecuador and a downward revision to
   output in Zambia.
 * Utilization in 2024/25 little changed m/m and still seen expanding to an
   all-time high on higher food intake.
 * Trade in 2024 trimmed largely on lower import expectations for China, where
   rice purchases are now seen at thirteen-year lows.
 * Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) down marginally m/m, but still forecast to rise to
   a fresh peak, largely owing to accumulations in China and India, and to a
   lesser extent in Brazil and Thailand.

2023/24

2024/25

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

393.6

419.2

418.9

Supply

441.3

472.4

472.2

Utilization

388.7

410.1

409.8

Trade

169.5

173.4

173.4

Ending Stocks

53.4

60.5

60.6

in million tonnes

 * Soybean 2024/25 production trimmed compared with the previous forecasts,
   mainly reflecting expectations of smaller area harvested in the EU and the
   US.
 * Utilization in 2024/25 revised down fractionally on a lower consumption
   outlook in the EU, while global soybean use is seen expanding by more than 5
   percent y/y.
 * Trade in 2024/25 (Oct/Sep) practically stable, with a lower export forecast
   for the US compensated by expected larger shipments from Uruguay, while
   import prospects remained untouched.
 * Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) virtually unchanged, confirming expectations of
   inventory accumulations across all major stockholders.

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INDICATORS


EVENTS

25th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
20 Jun 2024 to 21 Jun 2024
Rome, Italy

13th session of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
09 May 2024
Washington, DC

Watch replay: GFFA expert panel 2024
19 Jan 2024
Berlin, Germany

Watch replay: Emerging Trends in the Global Soybean Complex
14 Dec 2023
Online webinar

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