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 * US hopes to influence Israel’s stance on war


US HOPES TO INFLUENCE ISRAEL’S STANCE ON WAR

Thu, 17th Oct 2024

Article tags ForecastingGeopoliticsGlobalIsraelMiddle East and
AfricaPalestineUnited StatesCountry Analysis



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WHAT’S HAPPENED?

On October 14th the US delivered the first components of its Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile‑defence system—which will be operated by
100 US troops—to Israel. According to media reports, Israel’s prime minister,
Benjamin Netanyahu, subsequently informed Joe Biden, the US president, that
Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear or energy facilities in its widely
expected retaliatory attack in response to Iran’s missile barrage against Israel
earlier in the month. We expect Israel to broadly align with the US on this
issue and to strike a military target in Iran in the coming weeks.


WHY DOES IT MATTER?

The US and Israel have been engaged in intense negotiations about the targets of
a probable Israeli attack in retaliation for Iran’s October 1st missile attack
against Israel. Despite the US’s long-standing position as Israel’s closest ally
and main security guarantor, the US has struggled to influence or restrain
Israeli military actions since the outbreak of the Israel‑Hamas war both in the
Gaza conflict and, since late September, in Israel’s intense offensive against
Hizbullah, an Iranian-sponsored Lebanese Shia group.

Mr Netayanhu has had a testy relationship with Mr Biden and has reportedly made
promises to him that were broken later. Mr Netanyahu has also made clear that
the final decision about targeting Iran would depend on Israel’s own national
interests, but taking a stance that could be seen to influence the outcome of
the US elections (which take place on November 5th) could also prove to be
counter-productive for Israel. Israel also risks opening a third major front, if
it selects a target that would trigger a sustained confrontation with Iran.

The US is struggling to balance providing security protection to Israel while
not emboldening Israel to act beyond what the US views as its broader regional
and global security interests. Although the Biden administration has explicitly
acknowledged Israel’s right to retaliate against the direct attack from Iran, it
is concerned that an attack on Iranian oil installations would knock out enough
global supply to raise petroleum prices or prompt a wider regional conflagration
(not our central scenario).

An Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities would potentially be viewed by the
regime there as a systemic threat and could not only provoke a major retaliation
directed against Israel but could also trigger an acceleration of Iran’s nuclear
programme or attacks on Saudi and other Gulf oil installations (not our main
scenario), which would drive up international oil prices further. The US
believes (and so do many in Israel) that an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities
stands a poor chance of succeeding, owing to Israel’s lack of bunker-busting
bombs powerful enough to destroy sites lying deep underground. In addition, an
unsuccessful Israeli attack might prompt Iran to accelerate its nuclear weapons
programme.



Moreover, Israel’s ability to defy the US on this issue is constrained by
concerns about its ability to withstand an Iranian counter-attack as effectively
as it has defended itself against past missile attacks. Media reports say that
the last Iranian attack depleted much of Israel’s stock of Arrow (anti-ballistic
missiles) and David’s Sling (a system developed jointly by Israel and the US to
counter longer‑range missiles) anti-missile missiles, which are the main
components of Israel’s own highly developed interception systems—hence the
Israeli request for the THAAD system to fortify its ability to counter ballistic
missiles.


WHAT NEXT?

Once the THAAD becomes operational, we expect an Israeli targeted strike in the
coming weeks. Israel will probably choose from among an array of Iranian
military targets, including missile and drone launchers, storage sites and
factories, as well as military bases and possibly major government
buildings. Given Iran’s reluctance to be drawn into direct conflict with Israel,
we expect it to absorb this attack, but fighting in Gaza and Lebanon will
continue into early 2025. However, the risk of further escalation remains high.

The analysis featured in this article can be found in EIU’s Country
Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights
covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling
organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.

Thu, 17th Oct 2024 Article tags ForecastingGeopoliticsGlobalIsraelMiddle East
and AfricaPalestineUnited StatesCountry Analysis

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