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567233112.40K
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News
Inflation rises again tonight, suppressing interest rate cuts. Could gold be the
big winner? Gold returns above $2,600 mark
2024-11-14 03:59:24
Investing.com - On Wednesday (13th), after XAU/USD hit a new low in nearly two
months overnight, with the arrival of U.S. October inflation data tonight, it
rebounded slightly today and returned to above the $2,600 mark.


After Trump won the election, gold experienced a sharp retracement and funds
were withdrawn from the gold track. The World Gold Council said that after
hitting a record high on November 1, gold prices fell in the first week of
November; global gold ETFs are expected to decrease by US$809 million (12 tons)
in the first week of November, most of which Outflows came from North America,
partially offset by strong Asian inflows; COMEX net positions also fell by 74
tons, down 8% from the previous week.

Last week, outflows from SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, exceeded
$1 billion, the largest weekly outflow since July 2022.

However, after falling for three consecutive days, gold prices stabilized and
rebounded today. U.S. CPI data for October will be released on Wednesday night,
and market players predict that this latest data will show that core inflation
has remained strong for the third consecutive month. With Trump back in the
White House, his plans for trade tariffs and tax cuts could stoke inflation,
which could dampen the scope for potential interest rate cuts.


Fed's Kashkari said the strong labor market is "encouraging" and the economy
looks to be in strong shape. If inflation rises unexpectedly before December,
that could give us pause on rate cuts.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about a rebound in inflation
at the annual meeting of the American Bankers Association. He believed that
inflation may not disappear so quickly. Looking at the long-term trend, ,
inflation could rebound like it did in the 1970s.

A combination of positive macroeconomic data and election results drove one of
the largest monthly reflation shifts in the asset since 2000, according to
strategists at Goldman Sachs. A team of strategists at Goldman Sachs, led by
Andrea Ferrario, said that during the reflation period of the past two decades,
replacing the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio with alternatives paid off. They
provided a chart showing what worked - trend followers did particularly well -
and now they think gold and Eurobonds might work.

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Negative(38194)
Gold prices hover near one-month lows, bears await a break below 2,600
2024-11-13 06:56:14
Gold prices remained on the defensive during Asian trading on Tuesday, currently
trading slightly above their lowest levels since October 10. The dollar held
firm near four-month highs and continued to weaken commodities after optimism
over Trump's expected expansionary policies. In addition, rising U.S. bond
yields, buoyed by hopes that Trump's tariffs and corporate tax cuts could boost
inflation, are another factor weighing on gold.


In other words, concerns about the impact of Trump's policies on the global
economy have provided some support for safe-haven gold prices. Traders may also
avoid making large bets ahead of U.S. consumer inflation data this week. In
addition, speeches by a series of influential FOMC members, including Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will be seen as clues on the path of interest
rate cuts. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving demand for the U.S.
dollar and help determine the near-term direction of gold prices.

From a technical perspective, an overnight break below the 50-day simple moving
average (SMA) is seen as a new trigger for bearish traders. Additionally,
oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and remain
well away from oversold territory, suggesting the path of least resistance for
gold prices is to the downside.

That said, the overnight plunge stalled just before the $2,600 mark, which is
the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October rally and should be
the key point. A break below these levels should pave the way for a continuation
of the recent pullback from all-time highs and push gold towards a confluence of
$2,540-$2,539. A break above the 100-day moving average would once again confirm
that gold prices have peaked recently.

On the other hand, the $2632-2635 area now appears to be an immediate barrier,
above which a round of short covering could push gold prices towards static
resistance at $2659-2660. If gold prices continue to strengthen, it should pave
the way for gold prices to move towards the $2684-2685 area, and thus towards
the $2700 mark and the $2710 supply zone. Some follow-through buying will
indicate that the recent corrective decline has run its course and the market
bias will shift back toward bullish traders.

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Negative(27018)
easyMarkets: The trend of the US dollar and the outlook for gold under Trump’s
new policy
2024-11-12 03:51:47
Market review and market reaction:

Forex market:

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index continued its strong rebound from the "Trump
trade" and returned to its upward trend. It once broke through the 105 mark
during the session and finally rose 0.587% to 104.95. The euro fell 0.80%
against the U.S. dollar to $1.0718, a weekly decline of 1.12%; the U.S. dollar
fell slightly against the Japanese yen by 0.20% to 152.63 yen. The offshore RMB
fell 0.69% against the U.S. dollar to 7.1996 yuan; the Australian dollar fell
1.47% against the U.S. dollar to 0.6580 U.S. dollars.

Precious metals market:

Spot gold fell on a stronger U.S. dollar and weakening market expectations for a
rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The price of gold hit a low of $2,680.26 per
ounce, and finally closed down 0.84% at $2,683.77 per ounce, marking the largest
weekly decline in more than five months. Spot silver fell even more
significantly, closing down 2.34% at $31.29 per ounce.

Crude Oil Market:

International oil prices fell as concerns over possible long-term supply
disruptions caused by hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico eased. WTI crude oil
once fell below the US$70 mark, and finally rebounded slightly to close down
2.32% at US$70.23/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 2.08% at US$73.84/barrel.

Stock index market:

The three major U.S. stock indexes hit new all-time highs. The Dow closed up
0.59% at 43988.99 points, breaking through 44000 points for the first time in
the session; the S&P 500 index rose 0.38% to 5995.54 points, standing above 6000
points for the first time in the day; the Nasdaq index rose slightly by 0.09% to
19286.78 points . The major European stock indexes collectively fell, with
Germany's DAX30 index falling 0.76%, Britain's FTSE 100 index falling 0.84%, and
Europe's Stoxx 50 index falling 1.01%. Hong Kong stocks opened higher and moved
lower in early trading, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.07% at 20,728.19
points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.2% at 4,668.26 points.

Financial hot spots and other information worthy of attention:

With the advent of the Trump era, can gold soar?

After Trump was elected as the new president of the United States, the price of
gold fell sharply, partly because the market expected that his economic policies
might trigger inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest
rate cuts, which had a negative impact on gold prices. At the same time, Trump's
election pushed up the dollar exchange rate, suppressing the value of gold
priced in dollars. However, Trump's policy plans could lead to wider budget
deficits and less fiscal discipline, which could be positive news for gold.

Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of asset management company Navellier
& Associates, said rising U.S. bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar caused
gold prices to fall. Ryan McIntyre, managing partner of Sprott, predicts that
Trump’s policies may lead to higher inflation, increased debt and wider
deficits, which will be positive for gold in the long term.

Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland's Smith School of
Business, believes that Trump's tax and spending plans could increase the U.S.
debt by $7.75 trillion, triggering inflation and making gold a safe-haven asset.
But he also said that many of Trump's policies may not be fully realized, so
gold prices will not surge.

Overall, gold's brief weakness following Trump's election may have provided
investors with a buying opportunity. Market analysts believe that holding gold
is one of the effective means to deal with rising sovereign risks and recommend
holding 10% gold positions in the investment portfolio. Although uncertainty
about Trump's policies may increase market volatility, the value of gold as a
safe-haven asset is still favored by the market.

Market reaction and market outlook

This interest rate cut was within market expectations. After the announcement of
the interest rate cut, U.S. stocks rose slightly. The increase in the China
Concept Stock Index expanded to 4%. Gold recovered most of yesterday's losses.
In the future, the market will pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will
further cut interest rates in December, especially if President Trump's economic
policies intensify inflationary pressure, which may prompt the Federal Reserve
to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

In the Trump 2.0 era, the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts

After the U.S. election, Wall Street's concerns about the prospect of the
Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year have intensified. The Federal
Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points as scheduled on Thursday,
but market expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2025 have weakened.
Trump's victory may cause the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest
rate cuts, as its policies such as increasing immigration restrictions and
import tariffs may stimulate inflation and change the direction of monetary
policy.

Investment banks such as Barclays and TD Bank gave up their previous
expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next
year. The Fed is expected to evaluate the impact of Trump's policies on
inflation and economic growth before deciding whether to cut interest rates.
Goldman Sachs Group believes the Fed may take more cautious action to ensure it
finds the right endpoint for rate cuts. JPMorgan Chase and Nomura Securities
also updated their forecasts, believing that the Federal Reserve will move from
cutting interest rates at every meeting to once every quarter, and may even cut
interest rates only once next year.

U.S. government bond market expectations for further interest rate cuts were
dampened as Trump's expected fiscal expansion could curb the extent of the Fed's
rate cuts. Markets expect Trump's key policies to lead to faster economic growth
and higher consumer prices, which may make the Fed worried that a sharp interest
rate cut next year will trigger an inflation rebound.

Investors expect rates to fall to about 3.7% by the end of next year, about 100
basis points higher than expected in September. Strategists at Bank of America
Global Research also adjusted their short-term target for U.S. Treasury yields
to 4.25%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the election results
will not have an impact on policy decisions in the short term, but the policies
of the next government may have an impact on the economy.

To sum up, the policy uncertainty and possible inflationary pressure after
Trump's election have led to weaker market expectations for future interest rate
cuts by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, rising U.S. Treasury yields may
have an impact on the stock market and financial markets.

The views of Nick, the Fed’s “mouthpiece”

In an article in the Wall Street Journal, Nick expressed the Fed's attempt to
shift its focus to a "soft landing" for the economy as the new administration is
about to take office. The following are his views and possible impact on the
market:


The possibility of an economic soft landing: The Federal Reserve cuts interest
rates to prevent recession and ensure economic stability, hoping that the
economy can continue to grow while unemployment remains at historically low
levels and inflation returns to its 2% target.

Trump’s Economic Outlook: If the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing,
Trump will inherit an economy that is stable and has potential. But if the
economy slips into recession due to previous interest rate hikes, Trump will
face an economic downturn similar to the one experienced when George W. Bush
took office in 2001.

Inflation and interest rate policy: The core inflation rate has dropped from
5.6% to 2.7%, and the Federal Reserve may adjust the pace of interest rate cuts
based on economic growth and inflation. If economic growth is solid, the Fed may
pause interest rate cuts.

Consumer Spending and Economic Fundamentals: Continued growth in consumer
spending and revisions to household income data suggest that U.S. consumers are
in better shape than expected two months ago, providing strong fundamentals for
the economy.

Labor Market and Economic Slowdown: While there are concerns about a labor
market slowdown, some economists believe these concerns may be overblown.
Increased immigration and a modest rise in unemployment may be inconsistent with
traditional patterns.

Market impact: Nick's views may have an impact on the market, as market
participants will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy trends and
economic data to predict the future interest rate path and economic outlook.

To sum up, Nick believes that the Fed is working hard to achieve a soft landing
for the economy, which will have an important impact on the economic conditions
Trump inherits. At the same time, the market will pay close attention to the
Federal Reserve's policy adjustments and economic data to assess the economic
outlook and investment decisions.

Cryptocurrency News

On November 11, 2024, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum continued to
rise. BTC once exceeded the US$81,000 mark and hit a record high of US$81,500;
the price of ETH (ETH) also performed strongly, exceeding US$3,200. The price
reached the recent high of $3,248.


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