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 1. Topics
 2. Democracy and society


 3. CONDUCTING SOCIOLOGICAL STUDIES IN BELARUS IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT

Democracy and society 16.08.2022 | Philipp Bikanau
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A GUIDE TO SOCIOLOGY IN BELARUS’ DICTATORSHIP
SINCE THE START OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE, BELARUSIANS’ TRUST IN THE GOVERNMENT HAS
GROWN. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?

Reuters
Читать статью по-русски

The escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine is a serious shock for the
region, which could not but affect the socio-political situation in neighbouring
Belarus. One important point to consider is Belarusians’ trust in the
authorities and in state and non-state institutions, which has increased by 10
per cent since the start of the war. According to polls published in the
Belarusian Change Tracker, in October 2021 the balance of supporters and
opponents of the authorities was approximately 38/62. In May 2022, this
indicator changed to 48/52. Among opponents of the authorities, there are
considerably more men, highly educated, more likely to live in Minsk with higher
incomes. Among supporters, on the contrary, there are more women. They are less
educated, with a lower average income.

How is this possible? War is an extremely unpopular phenomenon among
Belarusians. Thus, the research of the Belarusian Analyst Andrey Vardomatsky
shows that 11 per cent of people support Belarus entering the war. Chatham House
research records only 5 per cent of those who would like the Belarusian army to
enter the war on the side of Russia. Simultaneously, Belarusian society strongly
fears being drawn into the war. In such a situation, Alexander Lukashenko’s
‘dovish’ rhetoric about how the country resists being drawn into war finds its
audience. The image of a potential ‘terrible’ military future outweighs the
deterioration of the current material situation; against this background, the
present does not look like the worst-case scenario.

> In Poland alone 35 thousand humanitarian visas and 40 thousand visas for IT
> specialists were issued.

But there is no talk of a full repeat of the 2014-2015 effect, when Alexander
Lukashenko could boast of a certain consensual assessment of his role as
president of the country.

The second explanation has to do with emigration from Belarus due to repression,
disagreement with the policies of the authorities, or fears of war. In Poland
alone, 35 thousand humanitarian visas and 40 thousand visas for IT specialists
were issued. People who leave are, in the overwhelming majority of cases,
opponents of Lukashenko’s regime. Accordingly, the number of people inclined to
trust the authorities is increasing.


DIFFICULTIES OF DATA COLLECTION

The question of data validity on political topics in Belarus under Lukashenko is
far from new. Independent research organisations have been regularly criticised
for their unwillingness to believe that Lukashenko has substantial public
support in Belarus. Most often, such disbelief is explained by the fear factor:
the fear of respondents to answer ‘political’ questions. Explaining the
popularity of the expression: ‘impossibility of sociology in the conditions of
dictatorship’. We should admit that the fear factor does influence the results
of public opinion polls in Belarus after the wave of repressions of 2020-2021.
But it is still necessary to study the Belarusian public opinion. How can this
be done?

There are three most widespread ways to study public opinion by means of
polling: face-to-face interviews at the place of residence, telephone
interviews, and online surveys.

> The incessant waves of repression for any anti-regime statements and social
> media likes cannot but affect the respondents' willingness to answer honestly
> in a telephone survey, or to take the survey on such sensitive topics at all.

Face-to-face community interviews allow us to build a truly representative
sample, but they are expensive and virtually impossible at present. Conducting
such a survey requires a large amount of coordinated work by a network of
interviewers and supervisors, it cannot be kept secret and cannot be conducted
entirely from outside of Belarus. In addition, surveys on political topics are
forbidden in Belarus without special accreditation. No private research company
will take this risk, and no state-affiliated company will take on a project
where the client is not the Belarusian state.

Telephone surveys may seem to be a solution to the problem — if the right
methods are applied, they allow for building a representative sample. However,
when it comes to telephone surveys in Belarus, there is every reason to believe
that the notorious fear factor will indeed significantly distort answers to the
questions about the internal political conflict in Belarus. In the country,
every SIM-card is tied to the passport of a citizen. The incessant waves of
repression for any anti-regime statements and social media likes cannot but
affect the respondents’ willingness to answer honestly in a telephone survey, or
to take the survey on such sensitive topics at all. Keeping all this in mind, it
would still be possible to study the attitude of Belarusians to the war by means
of a telephone poll.


A RESULT WHICH WILL SUBSIDE OVER TIME

Online panels to a certain extent solve the issues with the fear factor and
access to respondents, but they cannot ensure representativeness in the strict
scientific sense. The audience of online panels is different from the general
population of Belarusians: people who have a keen interest, who have time for
panels and who are willing to answer the questionnaire, who have access to
internet and the right skills to use technology register there. These people are
more educated and socially active and live in cities. Accordingly, there are
significantly more people among the online panel audience who tend not to
support the regime.

The fear factor is much less pronounced in online panel studies than in
telephone studies — after all, the Internet gives more confidence in anonymity
than talking on a mobile phone in Belarus. At the same time, fear affects the
sample — more ‘neutral’ respondents drop out. And yet, the online panel gives
researchers more tools to deal with the fear factor — some techniques are
extremely difficult to execute in a telephone conversation. In our study, a set
of 19 statements was used to measure trust in the regime, followed by a
clustering of responses into the aforementioned groups. The sheer number of
these statements would have had an impact on the telephone interview — imagine
how long it would take to read them out.

> In contrast to 2015, there is a significant number of people united in
> distrust of the regime who are not ready to accept Lukashenko's rule in any
> form and for whom 'not being drawn into the war' does not outweigh all other
> accumulated issues with the authorities.

Returning to the issue of the departure factor of those inclined to distrust the
regime from the country. The people who leave are more likely to participate in
the online panel. Consequently, their departure may affect the results of the
measurement more than in reality. At the same time, the departure of people
alone cannot explain the 10 per cent trend in confidence in the regime.

The result is unlikely to persist in the long term: this case represents an
emotional reaction that will subside over time. Only the most ‘plastic’ in terms
of public opinion, the neutral part of society, has been subjected to this
effect. In contrast to 2015, there is a significant number of people united in
distrust of the regime who are not ready to accept Lukashenko’s rule in any form
and for whom ‘not being drawn into the war' does not outweigh all other
accumulated issues with the authorities. Besides, the Lukashenko regime can
instantly lose even this level of support if it gets involved in a war.

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Philipp Bikanau

Philipp Bikanau is a Belarusian independent sociologist who has been involved in
public opinion research in Belarus since 2015.

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Philipp Bikanau

Philipp Bikanau is a Belarusian independent sociologist who has been involved in
public opinion research in Belarus since 2015.

More articles


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