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J.P. MORGAN HOME

slide 1 of 3

AIRLINE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: SOME CLOUDS AHEAD?

While consumer confidence remains high for leisure travel this summer, airlines
globally are facing headwinds that include constrained capacity and softer
airfares.

Discover more

3Q 2024 GUIDE TO THE MARKETS

Easily illustrate key investing topics during client conversations.

ROWING TO SUCCESS AT J.P. MORGAN

Former Olympians Mohamed Sbihi and Jessica Eddie discuss their professional
athletic careers, the challenges of transitioning to a new industry, and the
transferable skills and support systems that have facilitated their journey to
J.P. Morgan.

Listen now

1/3

* Airline industry outlook: Some clouds ahead?

* 3Q 2024 Guide to the Markets

* Rowing to success at J.P. Morgan

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WE DO

Through our tailored solutions spanning investment and commercial banking,
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slide 1 of 6

Asset Management

At J.P. Morgan Asset Management, we believe investors deserve an expert global
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1/6

MID-YEAR OUTLOOKS

slide 1 to 3 of 3

Global Research

The market outlook at mid-year: A long road to normal

Jul 19, 2024

Against a backdrop of moderating global growth, what is the macro and market
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Outlook

A strong economy in a fragile world

Companies have shrugged off higher rates. Yes, geopolitical risk is real. But
the economy is stronger than you think. AI is just starting. Stocks could move
higher. Embrace the rally.

Real Estate

2024 commercial real estate midyear outlook

Real Estate

2024 multifamily market update for real estate investors

1/3

SETTING THE LOW-CARBON TRANSITION IN MOTION

Discover how J.P. Morgan supports clients along the journey toward a low-carbon
economy — every step of the way.

Learn more

ESG

ESG at J.P. Morgan

Learn about our approach to ESG and access the latest ESG research and insights.
Discover how we are helping support a sustainable and inclusive economy for our
clients and the communities we serve.

Read more
slide 1 to 3 of 3

Payments

Payments Unbound - The digital magazine

Get insights from leading voices across industries into the future of payments
with Payments Unbound from J.P. Morgan Payments and WIRED Consulting.

Learn more

Banking

Q2 trends in venture capital

Jul 11, 2024

Experts discuss the trends affecting the venture ecosystem in the second quarter
of 2024, including stabilizing investment activity at subdued levels, the
competitive fundraising landscape and increasing optimism around the state of
capital markets.

Current Events

2024 election insights

Insights on the 2024 U.S. general election, potential election outcomes, policy
agendas and investment implications to help investors navigate the election
cycle in portfolios.

1/3

17:07

WHAT’S THE DEAL? | WHAT’S SHAPING THE CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2024?

Click for more podcasts

Join host Amaury Guzman and Kevin Foley, Global Head of Capital Markets, as they
dive into the current state of global capital markets. Explore economic
dynamics, IPO activity, M&A green shoots and private credit trends. Gain
insights into how CEOs are navigating economic uncertainties and what lies ahead
for the second half of 2024 and beyond.

What’s The Deal? | What’s Shaping the Capital Markets in 2024?
What’s The Deal? What’s Shaping the Capital Markets in 2024?_Podcast_07082024

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Amaury Guzman: Hello and welcome to What's The Deal?, our investment banking
series on J.P. Morgan's Making Sense podcast. I'm your host today, Amaury
Guzman, from our leveraged finance desk. Today I am joined by returning guest,
Kevin Foley, our global head of capital markets at J.P. Morgan. And we're here
to review the state of global capital markets. Kevin, thank you so much for
joining us today.

Kevin Foley: Amaury, my pleasure. And thank you for having me.

Amaury Guzman: Absolutely. Before we get going on the various topics that we're
gonna be reviewing today, why don't we set the stage for our listeners on mark
to market macro performance since your most recent visit to the podcast? In your
March episode, you recapped key takeaways from our global High Yield and
Leveraged Finance conference. You pointed to a level of resiliency that the
economy was demonstrating and the shifting outlook between soft and hard landing
scenarios. How have these trends evolved since and as we look to close the first
half of the year?

Kevin Foley: Sure. So I think it's been largely more of the same. We're kind of
in this Goldilocks period where we're seeing the economic picture hang in there
solidly, growth continues to be solid, can certainly see the consumer spend,
seeing corporate earnings come in well. Inflationary data continues to look
better, tracking more towards the Fed's target of 2%. While the Fed is on hold
the market continues to be convinced about the robustness of the economic
picture, given growth is this kind of, again, Goldilocks scenario, where not too
hot, not too cold. We're seeing some slowdown, as expected. Not as severe as we
expected. You're seeing financial conditions have eased, you're seeing the
inflationary pressure come down. All that continues to be firmly in place. There
are still questions out there, will we get close enough to the 2% that the Fed
is gonna be in a position to actually cut later this year? Right now the market
is pricing in a 75% chance at two cuts later in the year. The market has been
dialing back its expectations, I think that's probably one of the surprises, and
I'll separate from the economy in just the markets. The markets expectations
coming into the year were probably 150 basis points of rate cuts, that's come
down dramatically. We've seen less volatility in the markets than we would've
expected as those expectations have shifted, but I think the emphasis has
shifted towards the growth picture has been better than expected and stronger
than expected. Employment, while loosening up a little bit, is still solid,
consumer continues to spend. And we're seeing that some of that inflationary
pressure ease, so I think that outweighs the expectations of what the Fed was
gonna have to do on rates.

Amaury Guzman: So, just quickly touching on the rates point, the expected path
for rates in the U.S. has moved materially. We also saw the ECB make the first
move down. How do you see central bank-speak evolving in the second half of '24,
and what impact will it have on the capital markets?

Kevin Foley: It's definitely been the highest item of scrutiny in 2024. What I
have been surprised at is the lack of volatility that's been experienced in the
markets as the expectation for rate cuts have come down. So, while the
expectations were very high coming into the year, they have come way down, but
we've rallied based on the fact that growth has remained more robust,
inflationary pressures have eased, and getting back again to that Goldilocks
environment that we've been talking about.

Amaury Guzman: Clearly (laughs) a, a good ride on the macro side. Now, if we
pivot going into the product side of, of the house, why don't we start with
equities? We recently had our colleague Keith Canton on the podcast, discussing
the state of the IPO market. What's your outlook for IPO activity for the second
half of '24, and expectations for early '25?

Kevin Foley: So as Keith mentioned on his podcast, activity has picked up
significantly in the IPO market. We're up dramatically from a year ago. We're
still well below the pre-COVID averages, so when you look at 2017 to 2019, you
look at that what we'll call a normalized period for ECM and IPO activity, we're
still below those levels by a significant amount. But we have seen deals getting
done. It is a narrower market, you're seeing that in the equity performance in
the S&P 500. Right now you’ve got the Magnificent 7 who are driving the
performance. When you look at the S&P 500 it's up about 15%, if you were to take
out those seven stocks you'd lose 600 basis points of that performance. You're
looking at a weighting in the S&P 500 where, at the levels we haven't seen in
probably about 25 years, where top 10 stocks make up almost 40% of the index. So
it's a very concentrated narrow market, and you're seeing a similar dynamic in
the IPO market. It's just probably a narrower bandwidth of the types of
businesses that are getting done, right? It's going to be those businesses that
are at profitability or near profitability, at cashflow positive or near
cashflow positive, solid secular stories, fair sense of how it's going to
perform if we do actually get an economic slowdown. There could be more IPO
activity. There is a self-selection that goes on, whether people are willing to
accept where the market is willing to transact and price deals right now. But it
has been encouraging about the amount of activity that has been out there. The
first half of the year has been stronger than probably most would've expected.
Do we think that trend continues throughout the rest of the year? Not likely, is
our expectations. Based on what we see today, you certainly have some factors
later in the year that can cause periods where people are gonna be a little more
cautious about going, with the elections coming up.

Amaury Guzman: I'm curious to get your thoughts about what you see further down
the line into 2025 and maybe even into 2026.

Kevin Foley: As you look beyond '24, we see a nice pipeline building, right?
We've had several years of muted activity, we were coming off a very heavy
investment cycle from a private equity world, both venture and leverage buyout
candidates, that there is a solid pipeline out there that can come to the market
in '25 and '26. So we expect that's going to ramp, particularly as you get
beyond some of the economic concerns, debate about where the Fed's going, get
the presidential election in the U.S. behind us. All of those things are going
to help in boosting that activity. And the very fact that we've just kind of a
pent-up demand, if you will, in terms of there was a heavy investment cycle,
there's gonna be more pressure on VCs and PE shops to return that money to their
LPs, so there's gonna be a need for monetization events. So we expect all of
those things to be a driver as we get into '25 and beyond.

Amaury Guzman: That sounds like a positive outlook. It's great to hear that
deals are starting to get done, despite some healthy amount of discretion on the
investor side after a long period of muted activity, if you may. Now, shifting
to debt markets, we're seeing strong performance in high yield and leveraged
loans, despite rates staying higher for longer than anticipated. Do you expect
this activity sustaining in the back half of the year? And what about into early
'25?

Kevin Foley: You're right, the activity has been higher than expected. A couple
things in there, and rates are higher for longer. But importantly, when you look
at the high yield market on a spread basis, we are 200 basis points inside the
long term averages, long term non-recessionary average s- on a spread base for
those, that indice. So that has been a key factor in bringing activity to the
market. It is attractively priced, and we've been encouraging issuers to think
about taking advantage of, given how attractive spreads are. 90% of the activity
we've seen this year has been refinancing or repricing. So while there is ample
capital out there, and volumes are up significantly from a year ago, most of
that activity has just been recycling that capital. So while we have a lot of
demand out there, with the lack of M&A calendar coming to the leveraged finance
market, it's not sopping up that demand. So a little bit we're running in
placed. Do we think the trends in refinancing and repricing activity will
continue throughout the rest of the year. Hard to say. We're not anticipating
that's the case, so we don't think the elevated volumes we're seeing right now
are sustainable, unless we start to see a faster and bigger pickup in M&A
activity.

Amaury Guzman: That’s really interesting. And what other factors may shape M&A
activity?

Kevin Foley: Now, M&A has picked up from where it was a year ago, but we're
still seeing a fair amount of gap between buyers and sellers, which is keeping
the financing activity muted. We're encouraged about the green shoots that we're
seeing. How quickly does all of that come to fruition? Hard to say. As we get
later into the summer, we know more of that activity, if it does pick up or
continues to pick up, is more likely gonna get pushed into '25. But we're still
in a window where there's M&A deals that we're evaluating that come to market
before the year is out. We're pleased the quality of the deals we're seeing.
We're pleased with the pickup and dialogue that we're seeing. There has been
this gap between buyers and sellers, in just a pure, "Where's the valuations and
where can things get done?" And we're starting to see more meeting of the minds.
So we're hopeful. We're not anticipating that is a huge event in 2024, and more
likely a '25 pickup.

Amaury Guzman: Yes, Kevin, and to your point about running in place, recently we
had Brian Tramontozzi on the podcast, our North America head of Leveraged
Finance capital markets. He pointed out how about 40% of the loan market has an
issue date of 2024, effectively meaning that almost half of the market has been
either issued or refinanced this year and speaks to the level of the refinancing
activity. So, it sounds like conditions in public markets across debt, equity,
and some green shoots in M&A activity have had a good year so far. Turning
quickly to direct lending, which the market and the press refer to colloquially
as private credit, it's been a growing area of financings these days. It's not a
concept that's new for J.P. Morgan. We've been making loans to businesses for
years. Can you speak a little bit about what's behind the trend? How does
J.P. Morgan uniquely support our clients with related financing activities in
the private side?

Kevin Foley: As you said, we've been in the direct lending business since the
1800s. Private credit is here to stay. It's a dynamic in the market. But
importantly from J.P. Morgan, the way we go about serving our clients has not
changed. Our goal is always for our clients to be product agnostic, objective,
and give them the best advice possible. And so, private credit will be another
option on the page, if you will, of what their choices are in financing their
capital structure. So we can do a syndicated loan. We can do a direct loan. We
can do a high-yield bond. We can do a convertible bond. We're going to be
product agnostic. That's what's best for our clients, allow them to make the
best decision for whatever their business needs are, what their capital
structure needs are, and making sure we're giving objective, consistent advice
about it. That's always been our goal, and it will continue to be our goal.
We're fortunate to be in the private credit business as well, and being able to
offer that solution directly to our clients, and so we'll stay with this mantra
of product-agnostic, objective advice, and making sure our clients get what's
best for them.

Amaury Guzman: It's clear that we have a leadership position, and being able to
advise agnostically across our platform, and I think it speaks to the value that
we can deliver for our clients well within our platform. Now, Kevin, you spend a
lot of time on the road meeting with C-level executives. From your conversations
with CEOs and CFOs, what are they focused on, and what would you advise them to
be focused on for the remainder of 2024?

Kevin Foley: There's the adage that the markets, a lot of times, leads the
economy by six months, and if you apply that in this scenario, we're seeing the
markets feel very strong and optimistic. I think we see encouragement from a lot
of management teams, and honestly, looking across a lot of different industries,
when you talk to a lot of the manufacturing management teams, they may have seen
de-stocking in their business in the prior 18 months. It feels like they're
starting to see some restocking go on. They're seeing the consumer continue to
spend. They're seeing investment decisions being made. There are a lot of
reasons for optimism, but there's a lot of reasons for caution too. Right? That
there is still a relatively tight employment picture, and they're still feeling
some of that pains from a wage prices. Raw materials, still seeing some of that
price pressure in there. So a lot of the inflationary pressure that we've talked
about over the past couple years very much still lingers in these businesses.
And there are reasons to question whether the spending habits that we've seen
out of the consumer are sustainable. We've definitely seen certain segments
feeling a little bit of slowdown in it, whether consumers trading down to maybe
eating out less, different ways of changing behavior that impacts how these
businesses were forming. So, I'd say they're optimistic. There's reasons to be
cautious, because there are flags out there. And I think a lot of management
teams have been able to take actions, and reducing spend, positioning business
to make sure they're well positioned for any downturn. If they feel okay, they
are prepared for what's out there... I think it's the prepare for the worst,
hope for the best, and a lot of them have done that. But, there's still things
that hang in the balance. Are we actually going to see inflation truly get under
control here? Is the Fed gonna be in a position to actually ease? There's
geopolitical concerns, and there's ramifications that happen on that front from
whatever happens in the geopolitical picture. We've got, obviously, an election
happening. While most would say they feel like here, they can understand, we've
got two very well-known candidates, but still, there's uncertainty around that.
There's reasons for optimism, but there's also reasons to be cautious, and
there's a level of uncertainty out there, but I think they've had the benefit of
a lot of this being on the radar screen and trying to prepare their businesses.

Amaury Guzman: Yeah, certainly. It sounds like, despite some strategic
positioning, in preparation for a lot of factors that are coming our way in the
second half of the year, there's still a lot to be on the lookout for. I think
this is a good place to wrap up. To recap, today we dived into the current state
of global capital markets, explored trends in equity in the capital markets,
private credit, examine regional dynamics, and the outlook for interest rates
and M&A activity. Big thanks to Kevin for joining me today. It's always great to
have you with us.

Kevin Foley: Thank you, Amaury, and I also wanted to say thank you to all our
clients and partners out there, and appreciate all the trust you place in
J.P. Morgan.

Amaury Guzman: Yep, certainly. And thank you to our listeners for tuning into
another episode of What's The Deal? We hope you enjoyed this conversation. I'm
Amaury Guzman. Until next time, thanks for listening.

Voiceover: Thanks for listening to What's The Deal? If you've enjoyed this
conversation, we hope you'll review, rate, and subscribe to J.P. Morgan's Making
Sense to stay on top of the latest industry news and trends. Available on Apple
Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, and YouTube. To stay ahead of the curve.
Sign up for J.P. Morgan's In Context newsletter, packed full of market views and
expert insights, delivered straight to you. To subscribe, just visit
jpmorgan.com/in-context. This material was prepared by the investment banking
group of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and not the firm's research department. It
is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as an offer or
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| 00:01:00

Defining moments

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| 00:01:00

Defining moments

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