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The S&P 500 typically closes out December with gains when it’s up 20%-plus
through November
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The S&P 500 typically closes out December with gains when it’s up 20%-plus
through November
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THE S&P 500 TYPICALLY CLOSES OUT DECEMBER WITH GAINS WHEN IT’S UP 20%-PLUS
THROUGH NOVEMBER

Published Fri, Nov 29 202412:21 PM ESTUpdated Fri, Nov 29 202412:49 PM EST
Pia Singh@in/piasingh72/@pia_singh_
WATCH LIVE
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A strong market run through November typically bodes well for the final month of
the year, according to Ned Davis Research. “One adage that has consistently
tested well is, momentum leads price,” chief U.S. strategist Ed Clissold wrote
in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Big gains tend to be followed by additional
gains. … The message is bullish through the end of 2024.” Citing the research
firm’s technical analysis, Clissold said that in the years the S & P 500 has
gained more than 20% through November, it has then climbed 76% of the time in
December, scoring a median gain of 2.1%. The strategist noted that December is,
on average, the market’s strongest month of the year, so returns during these
years are not substantially higher than the typical December. That is partly
because a positive December that follows a big up year reduces the ability to
harvest much in the way of tax-loss selling, he said. “The key takeaway is that
positive returns have not pulled forward gains,” Clissold said, adding that 1996
was the last year the S & P 500 declined in December after seeing a 20% gain
through November. Ned Davis continues to recommend overweighting U.S. stocks,
even though the S & P 500 has already exceeded the firm’s year-end target of
5,950. The broad-based index that professional investors benchmark themselves
against touched an all-time high of 6,043.18 in Friday’s holiday-shortened
trading session, bringing this year’s rally to 26.7%.

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