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News
Two major disadvantages for the United States come together! Gold price 2687 is
struggling to recover FXEmpire’s latest technical analysis of gold, silver and
the US dollar
2024-12-13 22:26:56
24K99 News On Friday (December 13), the price of gold struggled to recover at
$2,687. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations and the number
of initial jobless claims rose sharply, boosting the U.S. dollar index’s strong
return. The market is closely watching the pricing of next week's FOMC interest
rate decision, and interest rate cuts may support gold prices.

The U.S. dollar index remains strong despite mixed economic signals from the
United States. The PPI data exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase
of 3%, indicating the existence of potential inflationary pressures. However,
initial jobless claims rose sharply to 242,000, suggesting the labor market is
cooling.

The divergence leaves traders uncertain about the Fed's next move, even as
markets largely expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a quarter point
at its upcoming meeting. After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index
attempted to break through the resistance level of 107, putting pressure on gold
and silver prices.

Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday, ending a four-day winning streak. Mixed
economic data created uncertainty, especially stronger-than-expected PPI data
and softer unemployment claims data. Spot gold fell to $2,680 as traders took
profits ahead of the Fed's decision.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rebounded after the release of PPI data, further
weighing on precious metals. Market focus remains on the Federal Reserve's next
move as interest rate cuts could support gold prices.

Here’s technical analysis on gold, silver and the U.S. dollar from FXEmpire
analyst Muhammad Umair:

Gold technical analysis

The daily chart of gold shows that after peaking in October, gold prices began
to consolidate. This consolidation found strong support at the red dot trend
line at $2,540 and triggered a strong rebound. Gold prices have since been
consolidating in a tight range as December approaches. From a seasonal
perspective, December is typically a range-bound month for the gold market.
However, the price remains above the 50-day and 200-day SMA, indicating a
positive trend once the consolidation phase is completed.

(Source: FXEmpire)

This consolidation is also observed on gold’s 4-hour chart. The price has been
consolidating between $2,615 and $2,665. After breaking above $2,665, the price
rose to $2,720. After reaching this level, the price corrected back to $2,665.
The RSI also indicates that the price remains within this range.

(Source: FXEmpire)

Silver Technical Analysis

The daily chart for silver shows that silver prices have been trading within an
ascending channel over the past year. The price has been declining after peaking
at the channel resistance at $34.80. Last week's price consolidation bottomed at
the channel's support, but Thursday's PPI data release sent silver prices
sharply lower, falling below the 50-day moving average. This decline indicates
that the price is still in a consolidation phase and is looking for its next
direction.

(Source: FXEmpire)

The 4-hour chart for silver prices shows that price has been trading within a
descending expanding wedge pattern. Silver failed to break out of the wedge
pattern at the $32.20 to $32.50 resistance zone and started to fall following
the release of US PPI data. A break below $29.60 could trigger further losses in
silver prices. Conversely, a break above $32.50 could lead to continued upward
movement towards $34.80.

(Source: FXEmpire)

US dollar technical analysis

The daily chart of the US dollar index shows that the US dollar index found
support at the red trend line 105.60 and rebounded to the resistance level 107.
A break above 108 could start an upward trend for the index. The 50-day moving
average crosses the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
Furthermore, the rebound from 105.60 was supported by the RSI midline,
indicating the potential for further gains.
(Source: FXEmpire)

The 4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index shows support at the lower boundary of
the uptrend channel at 105.60, with a double bottom pattern confirming this
support. The index is currently testing resistance at the blue dot trendline. A
break above this trendline could trigger an upward move. If the index breaks
above 108, a push towards the channel resistance at 109.40 is possible.

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Gold trading reminder: US CPI data is coming! Chaos in the Middle East boosts
safe-haven buying, gold prices surge close to 2,700 mark
2024-12-11 23:22:45
In early trading in the Asian market on Wednesday (December 11), spot gold
continued its gains, once reaching a high of more than two weeks to $2,698.20
per ounce. Gold prices rose 1.27% on Tuesday, initially breaking through the
volatile range of the past two weeks, supported by rising geopolitical tensions
and expectations of the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut next week,
while the market turned its attention to Wednesday's U.S. inflation data.

The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement in the early morning of December
11, Beijing time, saying that so far, the Israeli military has struck 320
strategic targets in Syria and destroyed weapons that may fall into the hands of
hostile forces.

According to Israeli military estimates, more than 70% of Syria's military
strength has been destroyed. The statement stated that the Israeli army will
continue to deploy troops in the military buffer zone on the border between
Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights. The Israel Defense Forces stressed that,
depending on developments, the troops could eventually remain stationed for a
long time. Defense Secretary Katz said Israel's goal is to establish a security
zone in southern Syria.

According to Reuters, Israel's "military invasion" of Syria reached about 25
kilometers northwest of the Syrian capital Damascus.

"Concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East are driving safe-haven
buying," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner
Metals.

Additionally, "global easing trends are also back in focus - we will see rate
cuts from the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National
Bank later this week, with the Fed likely to cut rates next week."

Ninety percent of economists polled by Reuters believe the Fed will cut interest
rates by 25 basis points on December 18, but most economists expect the Fed to
pause interest rate cuts at its policy meeting in late January due to concerns
about rising inflation risks.

Data on Friday showed the U.S. job market continued to cool but remained
relatively resilient, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will be
able to cut interest rates again ahead of a review of government policy early
next year.

"Despite solid income and job growth, the jobs report showed more slack, so we
still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in
December," said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays.

In a Reuters poll conducted after the jobs data was released, 93 of 103
economists expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its
December 17-18 policy meeting, taking the federal funds rate target range to
4.25%-4.50%. %. 10 respondents believed that interest rates would remain
unchanged.

Policies proposed by President-elect Trump, from import tariffs to tax cuts, are
expected to stoke inflation. Trump is expected to move quickly on his agenda
soon after taking office on January 20.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said on Tuesday she was concerned that
President-elect Trump's plan to impose broad import tariffs could undermine U.S.
progress in curbing inflation and raise costs for households and businesses.

Interest rate futures are moving in line with the survey, almost fully pricing
in a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

However, 58 of 99 economists predict the Fed, which has cut the federal funds
rate by a cumulative 75 basis points since September, will remain on hold at its
Jan. 28-29 meeting.

In terms of U.S. economic data, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Tuesday
that unit labor costs increased much less than initially expected in the third
quarter, indicating that although price increases have not slowed significantly
in recent months, the outlook for inflation remains positive. The report also
showed that labor costs actually fell in the second quarter, rather than rising
as expected last month. Fed officials are likely to welcome modest increases in
labor costs when they meet next week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said unit
labor costs increased at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the third quarter. The
original forecast in a Reuters poll was revised down to 1.5% from the initial
estimate of 1.9%.

Driven by post-election euphoria, U.S. small business confidence surged to its
highest level in nearly three and a half years in November. The National
Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said the small business optimism index
jumped 8.0 points to 101.7 in November, the highest level since June 2021. Small
business owners tend to support Republicans, and economists had generally
expected a surge in confidence.

The spotlight is turning to Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and
Thursday's producer price index (PPI), both of which will be important in
influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.

According to a Reuters survey, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected
to rise 0.3% in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.7% and
3.3% respectively. The overall and core producer prices in the United States are
expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month in November, with year-on-year
increases of 2.6% and 3.2% respectively.

"These are the big numbers this week," said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income
trading at Curvature Securities. "I do think inflation is coming back down...
(but) if inflation does creep up, it will certainly become a problem."

Traders put an 86% chance of an additional 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at
its Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The United States
has cut interest rates twice so far this year.

Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical
turmoil and tends to appreciate in low interest rate environments.

It is worth mentioning that the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields continued
their gains on Tuesday, which made gold bulls still wary. Among them, the U.S.
dollar index closed up 0.24% on Tuesday, rising for the third consecutive
trading day. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 0.69%, breaking through
the 200-day moving average resistance, closing at 4.228%, rising for two
consecutive trading days.

"Obviously, the market is a little nervous about stronger data, which may cause
the Fed's outlook to be slightly more hawkish, or there may be a bit of
repricing," said Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies. "I
think the market is watching whether CPI It will influence the decision for the
December meeting, and pricing for that meeting is now almost 100%, but not
100%."

It should be reminded that investors also need changes in risk aversion. If
market concerns cool down, gold prices may give up their gains.

On the 10th local time, a high-level Israeli delegation was visiting Cairo, the
capital of Egypt. This comes within the framework of Egypt's efforts to mediate
ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. The delegation will discuss with Egypt a
ceasefire in Gaza and support for the entry of aid supplies into the Gaza Strip.

In addition, Syria's new interim leader Beshir announced on Tuesday that he will
take charge of the country as a caretaker prime minister and lead the interim
government until March 1 with the support of the former rebels who overthrew
President Bashar. In the Syrian capital, banks reopened for the first time since
Assad was overthrown. Shops have reopened, roads are clear, cleaners have begun
sweeping the streets, and there are fewer armed men on the streets.

In addition, this trading day will usher in the Bank of Canada interest rate
decision, and the market is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Investors also need to pay attention to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei's speech on recent developments in the Middle East.

More >
Positive(42308)
Negative(29762)
Analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold on December 10: Is gold price
trying to break upward, or will it wait for US CPI data?
2024-12-10 23:18:35
The price of gold fluctuated slightly on Tuesday (December 10) and remained near
the two-week high hit on the previous trading day. Spot gold is currently
trading around US$2,667.76 per ounce as investors await the release of U.S. data
later this week. Key inflation data to further understand the Fed's interest
rate outlook


Fundamentals

Mainly bullish

The Chinese central bank resumed buying gold after a six-month hiatus, which
greatly boosted the morale of bulls.

Global central bank interest rate cut prospects: The Federal Reserve is expected
to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, the European Central Bank is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the Bank of Canada
is expected to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points this week, and the
Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this
week.

China’s Politburo meeting on December 9 specifically pointed out that a
moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented next year regarding
monetary policy.

The geopolitical situation is turbulent: the war in Syria continues, and the
conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. The variable is that Trump called
for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine sought to discuss ending
the war through diplomatic means.

The New York Fed's forecast for gold prices one year from now is 4.9% in
November, up from 4.5% in October.

Mainly negative

A report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed that U.S.
consumers' inflation expectations for the next few years have increased in
November, and they also expect their personal financial conditions to improve
significantly. This means that the number and magnitude of interest rate cuts by
the Federal Reserve next year may be reduced.

The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields rose on Monday. The U.S. dollar index
rose 0.18% on Monday, rising for two consecutive trading days. The 10-year U.S.
bond yield rose 1.23% on Monday, closing at 4.2%, recovering all losses from
last Friday. The variable is that the U.S. dollar still faces further downside
risks, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still suppressed by the 200-day
moving average of 4.205%.

Gold ETF holdings fell. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund
(ETF)-SPDR Gold Trust GLD said its holdings fell from 871.94 tons last Friday to
870.79 tons on Monday, a decrease of 0.13%.

Market outlook: U.S. November CPI data and geopolitical situation

Economists expect consumer prices to be released on Wednesday to show that core
prices rose 0.3% in November (previously 0.3%), with annual increases of 2.7%
and 3.3% respectively (previously 2.6% and 3.6%).


This expectation may slightly increase the possibility that the Federal Reserve
will cut interest rates in December and release hawkish words, slightly tending
to suppress gold prices.

Summary of fundamentals: The fundamentals are still mixed with long and short
news. Short-term good news is obviously stronger than bad news. However, it has
been initially digested by the market. The short-term upward space of gold
prices may be limited. Beware of high fluctuations or the risk of a pullback.

technical aspect

Daily level: shock; the gold price has slightly broken through the 2605-2666
shock range in the past two weeks. It currently needs to confirm whether it is a
real breakthrough or a false breakthrough. The MACD red column has become
longer, KDJ has formed a golden cross, and the gold price is also standing on
all moving averages. Above, short-term bull opportunities have increased
significantly. If it can break through the resistance of 2700, or close above
2666.16 on November 29 (the 55-day moving average is also near this position),
it will increase the bullish signal in the future.

Below, pay attention to the support near the 5-day moving average of 2648.91. If
the gold price falls back below this position, it will increase the possibility
of the gold price maintaining a volatile trend. The 21-day moving average
support is currently around 2634.77. If this support falls, it will increase the
short-term bearish signal.

4-hour level: shock; the Bollinger Bands opened, MACD crossed the zero axis, but
it seems that the momentum is not very strong, KDJ is close to the overbought
area, the gold price broke through the upper edge of the previous shock box at
2666.16, and recorded a "cut back line". It implies that the selling pressure
above is strong. Before breaking through the overnight high of 2676.31, you need
to beware of the possibility of false breakthroughs and shock pullbacks. The
initial support refers to the support near the high of 2657 on December 4. The
middle rail support of the Bollinger Band is currently around 2646.81. , if this
support falls, a short-term bearish signal will be added.

If the price of gold breaks through the resistance of the overnight high of
2676.31, the price of gold will confirm that it breaks out of the shock range
and starts a new round of upward trend. The short-term target is expected to be
around the previous high of 2721; whether it can break through further remains
to be seen.


Resistance: 2676.31; 2688.64; 2700.00; 2709.95; 2721.21;
Support: 2657.00; 2648.91; 2640.00; 2634.77; 2621.68;

Technical summary: The price of gold is trying to break through upward. At
present, there is still the possibility of a false breakthrough, and we need to
beware of the risk of a pullback.

Conclusion: Wait for US CPI data and beware of the possibility of false
breakthroughs and the risk of a pullback.

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