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Climate changed
AIRLINES WERE SUPPOSED TO FIX THEIR POLLUTION PROBLEM. IT’S JUST GETTING WORSE
Hundreds of millions of new passengers are coming, and there’s no solution in
sight.
A passenger aircraft takes off from London City Airport.
Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
By
William Wilkes
+Follow
March 10, 2019 at 8:00 AM GMT
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Environmental activists recoil for a reason when the super-rich fly private
jets to forums that preach carbon neutrality. Airplane pollution levels really
are going through the stratosphere and nobody seems to have a viable plan to
rein them in.
While energy generation and agriculture currently dwarf aviation’s 1.3 percent
share of all human-caused greenhouse gases, emissions from air travel are
accelerating many times faster. That puts the industry on track to become the
single biggest emitter of carbon dioxide within three decades if the predicted
cuts in other sectors materialize, data and projections from UN agencies show.
DIVERGENT PATHS
Flight emissions are seen rising while other sectors cut back
Sources: EU 2050 climate goals; International Civil Aviation Organization
The International Civil Aviation Organization recently moved to address the
omission of airlines from the 2015 Paris climate accord by adopting
self-policing guidelines that call for offsetting any carbon increases by
planting trees or investing in cleaner technologies. Mandating direct cuts was
deemed politically infeasible since it would have dented record demand for work
and holiday travel, particularly in bustling Asian economies led by China and
India.
The problem with such a model, green campaigners and analysts such as Andrew
Murphy at Transport & Environment say, is that it’s already been tried and
didn’t work. At least three European carriers—Austrian Airlines AG, EasyJet
Plc and Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd.—have paid to have forests planted in poor
countries far from their home markets only to see local authorities promptly cut
them down.
“Offsetting was plagued by problems from the start and has run out of road as an
acceptable climate measure,” Murphy said from Brussels, where his research group
is based. “Governments need to recognize this and work on effective solutions
like investing in new fuels and ending fuel-tax exemptions.”
A spokesman for ICAO said the carbon-offset plan was a welcome addition to other
attempts to cut aviation emissions, adding the world was “decades away” from
viable clean flying technologies.
“We are all going to have to reduce the extent to which we fly”
Airplane pollution, which has risen by about two-thirds since 2005, is forecast
to jump as much as sevenfold by 2050 as incomes in developing economies advance,
making flying more affordable for hundreds of millions if not billions of
people, according to the Montreal-based ICAO. The International Air Transport
Association, or IATA, the industry’s biggest trade group, expects the number of
airline passengers to double by 2037, to more than 8 billion a year.
The surge in demand is swelling the global fleet of commercial passenger craft,
which Boeing Co. sees doubling to 40,000 in the same period. The pool of private
jets is increasing at a similar pace, with JetCraft, a market-intelligence firm,
predicting a 50 percent gain within a decade, to 30,000 from 20,000.
Add cargo and military craft into the mix and total air traffic will probably
grow 4.4 percent a year on average over the next two decades, requiring the
overall addition of 37,000 new planes with a combined value of $5.8 trillion,
according to Airbus SE, Boeing’s main competitor.
THE SKY’S THE LIMIT
Number of aircraft flying is seen doubling over the next 20 years
Source: Airbus
All of these forecasts are terrifying climate scientists and activists who say
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are leading to rising
temperatures, more extreme weather and higher death tolls from natural disasters
caused at least in part by human activity.
“We are all going to have to reduce the extent to which we fly,” said Paul
Fennell, a professor of clean energy at Imperial College London.
Fennel pointed to a paradox in the fight against aircraft pollution: one
potential antidote, fuels made from biomass, can’t be produced in enough
quantities to make a difference without creating new problems for the
environment. There just isn’t enough non-food farmland to meet the demand for
both biofuels and the trees and genetically modified crops that experts say are
the best bet for large-scale carbon removal from atmosphere.
The sheer rise in passenger numbers has overwhelmed advances in ultra-light
materials, engine efficiency and piloting, which have all reduced fuel waste. A
move toward all-electric aircraft offers hope, but the technology is in its
infancy and the weights of the kinds of batteries that are currently
available—and affordable—are prohibitive for long-range travel.
An airplane flies over Dusseldorf.
Photographer: Federico Gambarini/AFP via Getty Images
Electric car makers like Elon Musk may be able to accommodate such mass in their
designs—the battery pack in his Tesla Inc.’s five-seat Model S weighs more than
half a ton—but kerosene and other liquid fuels offer airlines energy-to-weight
ratios that are unlikely to be matched anytime soon.
The head of Airbus’s electrification lab, Glenn Llewellyn, said battery-powered
planes may one day become common for taxi services and even short-haul flights,
assuming consumers accept longer flying times. An emissions-free solution for
long-haul flights, on the other hand, will likely remain elusive for decades to
come.
“A breakthrough is needed in energy-storage,” Llewellyn said. “The other
challenge is electromagnetic interference—we need to make sure the high-powered
cables connecting batteries to engines don’t interfere with the electronics.”
That said, Airbus plans to begin commercial flights of the hybrid electric plane
it’s developing with Siemens and Rolls-Royce by 2025. The first model, known
as E-Fan X, is expected to emit substantially less pollution than current jets.
IATA, which unites about 300 carriers, has said it expects fully electric planes
to start entering regular commuter service in about 15 years.
Read more: Pioneering Electric Plane Needs $200 Million for Final Push
International efforts to introduce binding emission caps for aviation, like
shipping, have largely been abandoned, leaving each country to decide the rules
for itself. The European Union tried to introduce a carbon-trading scheme for
all airlines that use its airspace, but that effort was undermined by the U.S.,
which banned its airlines from participating.
TAKING OFF
Global emissions are set to rise despite more efficient engines
Source: ICAO
Environmental groups say the guidelines the ICAO adopted in January are just
another toothless attempt at self-regulation, since the UN body works
hand-in-hand with the biggest companies in the industry. They say the money
spent tracking and offsetting pollutants via tree-planting would be better
invested in technologies that have the potential for greater impact.
Recent weather-linked catastrophes like droughts in India and wildfires in
California have injected added urgency to the issue, with some shareholder
activists accusing airlines of not being honest about pollution risks. The
puzzle leaves politicians committed to climate goals like French
President Emmanuel Macron with a thankless task: either upset consumers by
making flying more expensive or demand deeper emission cuts from other parts of
the economy.
The deadly “Yellow Vest” demonstrations that have gripped France for months
offer a cautionary tale for authorities thinking about taxing airline emissions
into submission. What started as a classic revolt over rising gasoline and
diesel prices quickly morphed into nationwide protests against the wider tax
burden being borne by the working and middle classes.
Rising incomes, mainly in Asia, and the proliferation of low-cost carriers
everywhere has turned affordable air travel into almost a basic right that can’t
be easily taxed without blowback from the public, according to Michael Stanat,
director of global operations at New York-based SIS International Research.
“Holidays are becoming increasingly important because work is now 24/7 for many
people,” Stanat said. “Airlines can push back by creating messaging to that
effect to further boost consumer demand.”
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