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News
[Gold Review] The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations continue the historic
rise, and the price of gold exceeds 2,620 US dollars.
2024-09-21 10:24:57
FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Friday (September 20), gold prices
soared above $2,620 for the first time, continuing a rally driven by
expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and heightened tensions in the
Middle East.

At press time, spot gold rose 1.40% to $2,622.78 per ounce. #GoldenCollection#


The Federal Reserve kicked off an aggressive easing cycle on Wednesday, cutting
interest rates by half a percentage point, increasing the appeal of gold, which
doesn't pay interest, and fueling gold's latest gains.

Prices for the safe-haven asset rose 27% in 2024, the biggest annual gain since
2010, as investors sought to hedge against uncertainty stemming from protracted
conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Some analysts say the record rally may be about to see a correction.

"Obviously, there's still some buying activity after the Fed decided to cut
rates sharply to start an easing cycle," said Daniel Ghali, commodities
strategist at TD Securities.

However, "the source of these buying activity remains outside our focus" as ETF
inflows have been relatively light and Asian buyers remain on buying resistance,
all signs of "extreme positioning," Ghali added.


Commerzbank said in a note that gold's rise "should not last forever" and
predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by just 25 basis points
at its next two meetings.

However, some analysts say gold prices could rise further.

"Geographic risks such as ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere will
ensure safe-haven demand for gold is maintained," Forex.com analyst Fawad
Razaqzada said in a note.

Meanwhile, continued weakness in the U.S. dollar makes gold cheaper for holders
of other currencies, providing an additional tailwind for gold.

The long-term trend is bullish

Jerry Prior, chief operating officer and senior portfolio manager at KFA Mount
Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), said a parabolic rise in
gold prices is unlikely based on Powell's speech; however, he added that the
market should continue Steadily moving higher.

Julia Khandoshko, chief executive of European brokerage Mind Money, said she
also expected gold prices to consolidate, slowly moving toward $3,000 an ounce.
Gold prices are unlikely to reach this long-term target before the end of the
year, she added.

"Most likely, we will see gold consolidate at current levels and gradually grow.
Now is the best time to invest in gold, especially when interest rates are
neither high nor low, making gold more attractive than stocks or bonds Power,"
she said in comments to Kitco News. “Lower interest rates, increased money
supply and the decentralization of the global economy have driven gold prices
higher, although it’s not worth waiting for a sudden breakout. These factors
will continue to support gold, but there is no good reason to rush into buying.”

While gold remains in a strong technical uptrend, investors should be prepared
for some volatility in the near term, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at
StoneX Group. However, he added that lower prices can be viewed as long-term
buying opportunities.

“Gold will see some profit-taking in the near future, but I remain mildly
bullish on the outlook for gold for the remainder of the year. Gold may not
reach the $3,000 milestone this year, but this level is where I see gold
long-term goals as major central banks such as the Federal Reserve are expected
to accelerate interest rate cuts, while factors such as ongoing geopolitical
tensions and central bank gold purchases have also created positive conditions
for gold," Razaqzada said.

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Positive(67813)
Negative(25913)
Gold Trading Alert: Traders struggle to digest the Federal Reserve's sharp
interest rate cut, and the situation in the Middle East escalates! Gold prices
seek to reach new all-time highs
2024-09-20 10:21:20
In early trading in the Asian market on Friday (September 20), spot gold
fluctuated within a narrow range at high levels and is currently trading around
$2,587.36 per ounce. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, hitting an
intraday high of $2,594.79 per ounce, approaching the all-time high set on
Wednesday, closing at $2,586.61 per ounce.

Although the initial jobless claims in the United States performed well, which
briefly put pressure on gold prices during the session, the Federal Reserve's
launch of a monetary easing cycle still attracted bargain hunting to support
gold prices, and data showed that the U.S. real estate market was still
struggling; in addition, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon escalated ,
attracting safe-haven funds to support gold prices.


Spot gold hit a record high of $2,599.96 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve
lowered its benchmark policy interest rate range by 50 basis points to
4.75%-5.00%.

Fed policymakers also expect the benchmark interest rate to fall another 50
basis points before the end of this year, a 100 basis point cut next year, and a
50 basis point cut in 2026.

A report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday
showed that existing home sales fell 2.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 3.86 million units, the lowest in 10 months. The median price of
existing homes rose 3.1% from the same period last year to $416,700, setting a
record for August.

Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest in a year and a half, which could
entice more homeowners to sell. Most homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%,
and the "rate lock" has left the secondary housing market starved of supply.
However, lower borrowing costs could cause demand to exceed supply, keeping
house prices elevated.

"The real problem with housing is that we have and will continue to have a
housing shortage," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday. "It's
not a problem that the Fed can really solve, but I think as we get there," he
added. Interest rates normalize and you'll see the housing market normalize."

Inventory of existing homes increased 0.7% in August to 1.35 million units.
Supply increased by 22.7% compared with a year ago.

The U.S. dollar fell in volatile trading on Wednesday, providing support for
gold prices. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a
basket of six currencies, fell 0.38% to 100.64 on Thursday after reversing early
gains; the market struggled to digest the Federal Reserve's sharp 50 basis point
interest rate cut and Shift to an accommodative monetary policy stance.

In the days leading up to the Fed's action on Wednesday, investor expectations
had shifted largely toward a dovish outcome, with money markets pricing in about
a 65% chance of a half-point rate cut. But economists surveyed favored a 25
basis point cut.

"Interestingly, Wednesday's half-percent rate cut was largely a surprise, or at
least it was 50/50 yesterday, but it did no additional damage to the dollar --
which is quite surprising. Surprised," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at
FXStreet in New York.

Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer of Allegiance Gold, said: "The market is
pricing in bigger and more interest rate cuts because we have both a fiscal
deficit and a trade deficit, which will further weaken the overall value of the
dollar."

"If you combine the geopolitical risks with our current deficits, plus a
low-yield environment and a weaker dollar, the combination of all of those
factors is what's driving gold's surge."

UBS said in a report: "We believe this rally will continue. Our price target is
$2,700/ounce by mid-2025. In addition to near-term risk drivers, we expect that
in the coming months Gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand will accelerate."

In terms of the geopolitical situation, U.S. officials reportedly said on
Wednesday that the United States no longer expects Israel and Hamas to reach a
ceasefire agreement before the end of Biden's term.

On the afternoon of the 19th local time, Lebanese Hezbollah leader Nasrallah
gave a speech and said that Israel detonated thousands of communication devices
in an attempt to kill thousands of Lebanese, which crossed all red lines and was
tantamount to a declaration of war. The attacks were an "unprecedented massacre"
and dealt a "heavy blow" to Hezbollah.

Nasrallah said that Hezbollah has established multiple internal investigation
committees to conduct in-depth investigations into the two communications
equipment explosions at the technical and security levels, striving to obtain
confirmed results in a short time and take necessary actions. Nasrallah stressed
that Lebanese Hezbollah will not stop military operations until the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict stops.

Israel has carried out dozens of air strikes in southern Lebanon in recent
hours, three Israeli security sources said, marking a major escalation in the
bombing campaign.

On the evening of September 19, local time, the Israeli military dispatched
dozens of fighter jets to launch a new round of air strikes against Hezbollah
targets in Lebanon, attacking more than 100 rocket launch sites belonging to
Lebanese Hezbollah.

In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. On the 19th, the
Russian Ministry of Defense issued a battle report stating that in the past day,
the Russian army attacked the Ukrainian army in multiple directions in Kharkiv,
Donetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporozhye, destroying American, British, and French
howitzers and Several weapons and equipment including German-made infantry
fighting vehicles. Russian troops also took control of the village of Georgievka
in Donetsk. The Russian army attacked a dedicated radio communication center of
the General Intelligence Bureau of the Ukrainian Army, important Ukrainian
airports, and gathering points for personnel and military equipment in multiple
areas, and shot down 41 Ukrainian drones. On the same day, the General Staff of
the Ukrainian Armed Forces issued a morning battle report stating that 187
battles occurred in the frontline areas in the past day. The Ukrainian missile
force and artillery force attacked two Russian command posts and three areas
where Russian military personnel and equipment are concentrated. In Pokrovsk,
Kulakhovo and other directions, the Ukrainian army repelled multiple attacks by
the Russian army. The Ukrainian army also destroyed many Russian tanks, armored
vehicles, artillery and drones.

It should be reminded that data showed that the number of people filing for
unemployment benefits in the United States fell to the lowest level in four
months last week, and the number of people continuing to claim unemployment
benefits dropped to the level last seen in early June, suggesting that
employment growth was solid in September and confirming that the third The
economy continued to expand quarterly. This could limit gold's upside potential.

The U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday that initial claims for state
unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 in the week ended September 14 to a
seasonally adjusted 219,000, the lowest level since mid-May. . Economists polled
by Reuters had forecast 230,000 initial jobless claims.

Unadjusted initial jobless claims rose by 6,436 last week to 184,845.

Initial jobless claims have changed little since falling from an 11-month high
of 250,000 in late July, when most economists blamed the surge on temporary
shutdowns at auto plants. Boeing furloughing some employees could lead to an
increase in unemployment claims in the coming weeks.

The unemployment benefits data are within the period of the government's survey
of businesses for the nonfarm payrolls portion of the September jobs report.
Jobless claims fell sharply during the August and September survey periods.

The unemployment benefits report also showed that the number of people
continuing to claim unemployment benefits, a measure of hiring, fell by 14,000
in the week ended September 7 to a seasonally adjusted 1.829 million, the lowest
level since early June. Continuing claims have fallen from a more than
two-and-a-half-year high hit in July.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said: "These hard
data confirm the message delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on
Wednesday. The labor market is softening, but it will not have the kind of
collapse expected to be seen in a recession. The goal of Fed policy It's about
supporting the job market before a recession develops."

A better-than-expected U.S. unemployment benefits report gave yields a big
boost. U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields hit their highest level in about two
weeks on Thursday at 3.768%, rising 5.1 basis points at the end of the session.
3.738%.

After Wednesday's decision to cut interest rates, market participants said they
were paying more attention to the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and
how the outcome will determine the direction of interest rates.

Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at Royal Bank of Canada Global Asset
Management, said: "We believe that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election
will have a far greater role in determining the pace and ultimate magnitude of
interest rate cuts than any decision by the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 or
50 basis points. Potential policy errors."

The federal funds rate futures market sees the Fed cutting rates by about 72
basis points by the end of the year and 195 basis points by October 2025.

LeBas of Janney Capital Management said: "The number of rate cuts currently
expected by the market is basically ridiculous and is based on the premise of
economic weakness, which may or may not occur. In the short term, I am
optimistic about economic growth in the fourth quarter. The dynamics are quite
optimistic."

On this trading day, investors need to pay attention to the Bank of Japan's
interest rate decision, pay attention to news related to the geopolitical
situation and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials.

More >
Positive(50214)
Negative(29417)
Global Market Focus: Will the Fed cut interest rates, soaring gold, and the
Middle East crisis affect the global economy?
2024-09-19 21:17:35
In the current complex situation in the global financial market, gold prices
have once again become the focus. During the European session on Thursday
(September 19), the price of gold rebounded to around $2,585 per ounce. Further
tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's sharp 50 basis point
interest rate cut have significantly increased market risk aversion and become
the main factors driving the rise in gold prices.


The situation in the Middle East suddenly escalated

Regarding the situation in the Middle East, multiple explosions occurred again
in Lebanon, exacerbating regional tensions. It is reported that at least 20
people were killed and 450 injured in multiple communication equipment
explosions in Lebanon. It was the second major attack in the area, following
previous bombings involving equipment ranging from pagers to walkie-talkies. The
sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a rise in global
risk aversion, thus pushing up the prices of safe-haven assets including gold.

At the same time, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced that the war had
entered a "new phase" and that troops and resources were being transferred from
Gaza to the northern border of Israel and Lebanon. The United Nations General
Assembly also overwhelmingly passed a resolution calling on Israel to end its
illegal occupation of Palestinian territories within one year. As the conflict
between the two sides escalates, the market's concerns about the future
development of the situation continue to intensify, and risk aversion is
expected to continue to support the performance of gold and other safe-haven
assets.


Fed rate cut and market reaction

The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut this week,
lowering the benchmark policy interest rate window to 4.75%-5%. This decision is
largely in line with market expectations. Although the magnitude of the interest
rate cut was significant, it did not trigger panic in the market. Instead, it
provided a relatively mild easing cycle expectation. Analysts predict that the
Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 more times in 2024, by 25 basis
points each time, to further support economic growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at the press conference that
the Fed is recalibrating policy to a more neutral level rather than turning to a
strong easing stance. He pointed out: "I don't think anyone should think that
this is a new pace. We are recalibrating policy to a more neutral level over
time. We are advancing at a pace suitable for economic development." This
statement shows that , the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates
further, but has adopted a more prudent policy stance.

Gold market analysis

The U.S. dollar weakened as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, boosting
gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Analysts from well-known institutions
said that gold has shown strong resilience below its pivot point of $2,571.32
per ounce. The current support level of gold price is located at US$2560.25/oz,
US$2551.17/oz and US$2542.54/oz, while the resistance level is at US$2598.91/oz,
and the higher target is US$2606.63/oz. The 50-day EMA provides solid support at
$2,552.36/oz, and the 200-day EMA is at $2,500.50/oz, reinforcing the long-term
bullish trend in gold prices.


Analysis pointed out that gold prices had previously retraced to 50% of the
Fibonacci level, close to the $2,550/ounce line, and the subsequent rebound
trend above the 50-day moving average showed that bulls still took the
initiative. If the price of gold breaks through the level of $2,572 per ounce,
it may further trigger bullish sentiment, whereas if it falls below this key
support level, it may face greater selling pressure.

U.S. stock market performance

The S&P 500 hit a record high overnight following news of a rate cut from the
Federal Reserve, and futures were still up 1% in Asian trading despite
retreating slightly at the close. Nasdaq futures also rose 1%, European futures
rose 1% and FTSE futures rose 0.8%. This shows that market sentiment is
gradually stabilizing after the initial shock.

In terms of Asian stock markets, Japan's Nikkei rose 2.3%, and Australian and
Indonesian stock markets also hit record highs. Although the U.S. dollar
rebounded after the news of the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall trend
remained weak, with the pound hitting a two-and-a-half-year low against the U.S.
dollar. The market's focus has gradually shifted to upcoming U.S. economic data,
including key data such as weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed
manufacturing index and existing home sales.

Crude oil market volatility

Oil prices failed to continue higher amid tensions in the Middle East, with
Brent crude futures hovering around $73.87 a barrel. Although the situation in
the Middle East escalated, market concerns about the global economic slowdown
continued to suppress crude oil demand expectations, resulting in the failure of
oil prices to rebound significantly.

U.S. Treasury Yields and Foreign Exchange Markets

The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose nearly 8 basis points to 3.719%,
showing the market's cautious attitude towards future economic prospects. In the
foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rebounded after a "selling fact". The
exchange rate against the euro was trading around 1.1125, and the exchange rate
against the Japanese yen was stable at around 142.70. It had previously risen to
143.95 during the session.

The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain a flexible
policy stance in the coming period to deal with possible economic uncertainties.
The Bank of England will announce an interest rate decision later on Thursday.
The market expects it to keep interest rates at 5%, but there is still a 19%
chance of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.

Outlook and Conclusion

Overall, the global market has shown a complex pattern of fluctuations under the
dual influence of the escalating situation in the Middle East and the Federal
Reserve's sharp interest rate cuts. The advantage of gold as a safe-haven asset
has been highlighted in this context. Technically, bulls still dominate, but
future trends still require close attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's
policy path and the development of the geopolitical situation. For traders, the
current market environment provides diversified trading opportunities, but they
also need to be highly vigilant about potential market fluctuation risks. In the
next few trading days, the performance of U.S. economic data will be the focus
of the market, which will further guide investors' expectations for the future
policy path of the Federal Reserve.

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