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MORNING UPDATE: DON’T CALL THE BOTTOM UNTIL THE BUYERS START BITING

Dear Reader,

Let’s keep it quick today. With little news on the calendar and everyone sitting
on their hands until tomorrow’s Fed meeting, right now is the perfect time for a
look at the charts… 

Particularly the chart I’m about to show you – it happens to be the only chart
you need when trying to “time” a rebound in the market. 

Do you see those blue spikes at the top of the chart? They happened in October
2008, March 2009, August 2011, January 2016, and April 2020.



 

Those were all market bottoms: Right after Lehman Brothers crashed, the 2009
“Great Recession” market bottom, the 2011 European financial crisis, the 2015
yuan devaluation crisis, and the 2020 “COVID Crash.” 

Those spikes are the sum total of all insider buying at S&P 500 companies as
compared to insider selling. “What are ‘insiders,’ anyway, Garrett?” I hear you
ask…

Glad you asked. These are the people who have major, influential roles at these
companies. The C-suite types. Think CEOs, CFOs, board members, 10%-plus stake
owners, and other executives. 

So when we define insider buying, we are talking about executives using their
own money to buy their own stock. When they do so, they must file a Form 4
document with the SEC – the information’s right there for anyone interested to
know. The chart above is a calculation of insider buying against insider
selling.

And as I intimated before, the ratio is strongest at the market bottoms. 

Typically there is a shift in monetary or fiscal policy that benefits the
market. And when that happens, the insiders all buy at the same time. 

If you look at the chart right now, we don’t have a spike. Nowhere close. 

Which suggests to me that the bottom is not in. 

Later today, we’ll dig deeper into the raw power that comes with a grasp of
insider buying patterns. My Flashpoint Trader subscribers can expect a rundown
of which insiders are buying their stock right now. (Click here to get your
insider’s report delivered each morning.)

Here’s What I’m Watching Today (May 2, 2023)

BRICS Woes: The bloc of nations wanting to shift away from the U.S. dollar is
growing. Five Arab states plus Iran join a chorus of 19 nations that are
prepared to join the BRICS. The news comes as the trade bloc prepares to hold
its annual summit in South Africa. The BRICS are soon prepared to surpass the G7
(which includes the U.S.) in economic growth projections. The G7 will comprise
just 28% of the global economy (and declining) in 2028. The BRICS will represent
about 35%. Despite the ongoing chorus of concerns around de-dollarization – it’s
important to remember that nations don’t engage in trade – companies do. The
dollar remains highly liquid and convertible to other currencies. A company from
Brazil selling grain to China may prefer the U.S. dollar, which can quickly be
converted into reals or other foreign currencies. We will see the progress in
trust around the yuan as a trading instrument or if more nations engage with the
euro. 

Debt Blowout: The problem is the spending! Janet Yellen, a walking “economic
catastrophe,” has told House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that the U.S. government may
run out of funding for its obligations by June 1. After engaging in
“extraordinary measures” (that is to say “paper shuffling”) for a few months, it
appears federal tax receipts can’t paper over the never-ending binge of spending
in D.C. The debt ceiling is largely a budgetary debate tool, as the Federal
Reserve Staff in 2013 said that the debt can be repaid – it’s just Congress
stopping the borrowing authorization process. The Fed has called not raising the
debt ceiling “a voluntary decision” to stop paying debts. Well, let’s play the
game again, children, because the story gets real in 2032 when the government is
projected to be $50 trillion in debt, facing an insolvent social security
system, an imploded Chicago pension system, likely two bankrupt states, and
unfunded liabilities in the hundreds of trillions. 

A Consumer Slowdown: Hedge funds are starting to bet big that American consumers
are tapped out of money. Goldman Sachs reported very bearish positions among
hedge funds on companies that sell non-essential consumer products. I wonder if
this is finally it. I’ve been projecting this slowdown in consumer spending for
three quarters, yet Americans remain resilient. If that slowdown hits, it might
finally be enough for the Fed to raise the red flag for a shift in policy. We’ll
look at forecasts as earnings season continues. For now, I’m wondering if it
shows up in Q3 or Q4 earnings reports.

Stay Liquid,

Garrett

Topics: BRICS, Dollar, Insiders, UUP



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Published
May 02 2023
by Garrett Baldwin
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