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EXPLORE THE CURRENT
Home

The Great Rotation

The Collapse of the Momentum Growth Trade

Taking On Volatility: Solutions in Fixed Income

Sustainability

Realities of Decarbonization Start to Sink In

The Value of Independent ESG Research

Thematic Investing

Investing in the Outlier Era

Digital Revolution: Driving Opportunities in Healthcare

Another Way to Seek to Diversify for the Future

The China Conundrum

Don’t Count China Out Yet

The Opportunities Investors May Be Overlooking in Xi’s China


THEMATIC INVESTING


A FOCUS ON THE FORCES THAT MAY RESHAPE THE WORLD




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The markets of 2032 are likely to be as different from those of 2022 as the
world of 2012 was to today.

But how can investors seek to position themselves for what comes next?

For many, the answer is to approach markets in a new way, through thematic
investing.

THE CURRENT
Thematic Investing


5 min read

Nine years ago, the well-known Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert and other
scientists published a paper that posited something called the end-of-history
illusion. Their research showed that people tended to underestimate how much
they would change over the next decade, while acknowledging how profoundly their
preferences, values, and even personalities had changed over the past 10 years.
Assuming that history ends in the current moment can have all kinds of
consequences: spending money on things you will no longer value in the future,
for example, or failing to save enough money for retirement or emergencies. As
the authors of the paper put it, “People may believe that who they are today is
pretty much who they will be tomorrow, despite the fact that it isn’t who they
were yesterday.”

“People may believe that who they are today is pretty much who they will be
tomorrow, despite the fact that it isn’t who they were yesterday.”

Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel T. Gilbert, and Timothy D. Wilson in Science magazine,
2013

A growing chorus of investors are wary of making similar mistakes in financial
markets: in other words, failing to adequately account for the potential for
profound structural change that makes markets look much different tomorrow than
they do today. For these investors, one potential answer is to invest in the
idea of change itself. Thematic investing, or investing in long-term shifts that
show promise to alter current market trends and assumptions, has expanded
rapidly over the last 10 years (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Growth in Thematic Investing

As of 31 March 2021
Source: Morningstar

Of the themes that have attracted investors’ interest of late, sustainability is
at the top of the list, according to Morningstar. As we will discuss more fully
in the Sustainability section, there seems to be good reason for that. World
leaders are setting more ambitious carbon emissions targets and placing an
increasing focus on biodiversity, companies and investment firms are being
pressed to make aggressive emissions reductions of their own, and consumers and
the general public are more sensitive than they once were to corporate missteps
that harm the environment or harm employees, customers, and the communities in
which they operate. It seems quite likely that in the future those that took
early and decisive steps to become more resilient to the risks of climate change
and other environmental changes may reap rewards while those that were slow to
act or ignored the problem face greater risks that in turn could negatively
affect valuations and results.

Outside of sustainability, themes that are broadly related to technology are the
center of most investor interest (Exhibit 2). Robotics, automation,
connectivity, artificial intelligence, big data, digital health, and fintech are
all areas that many people seem to believe comprise the next wave of
technological revolution. Connectivity promises to make possible an internet of
things that generates huge amounts of data, which can in turn be processed by
companies that have an edge in data analysis software and artificial
intelligence. Computers that are smarter and faster thinkers than human beings
promise to unearth patterns and insights that humans may have missed. Meanwhile,
watching the emergence of increasingly smart and agile robots in the midst of
the greatest global labor shortage in recent memory makes it easy to imagine
where the potential is in robotics and automation. Finally, digital health and
fintech represent two industries that we believe stand to be substantially
changed by many of these trends.

Exhibit 2: Outside ESG, Tech-Related Themes Command Investors’ Interest

Data as of 31 December 2019
Source: Morningstar

Thematic investments can and do serve a variety of purposes in a diversified
investment portfolio, but what they have in common is a specific point of view
on one or multiple major changes that seem to be building to a crescendo. They
are focused on the future, and not on the present. Single-theme strategies are
often used to diversify other holdings or get more concentrated exposure to a
long-term trend. As we argue in “Investing in the Outlier Era,” multi-theme
strategies are in our view worthy of adoption as an overall framework for
analyzing the financial markets. The more commonly accepted framework, indexing
to benchmarks, anchors strategies firmly in the past, as we have previously
written. Benchmarks are weighted by market capitalization, which in turn
encapsulate past and current performance. Our Global Thematic Equity team does
not believe either is a good indicator of future returns and therefore form a
poor reference point for building a portfolio.

In the pieces that follow, our investment teams explore several different
aspects of thematic investing: They are independent from another and their views
vary, but each offers a valuable perspective on this fast-growing part of the
marketplace.




INVESTING IN THE OUTLIER ERA

If the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that once-in-100-year
occurrences are now routine. It’s also shown, however, that companies with an
intense focus on long-term dominance can find themselves in a better position to
weather even the most unexpected of changes—like, for example, a pandemic.

Explore How to Capitalize on this Trend 


DIGITAL REVOLUTION: DRIVING OPPORTUNITIES IN HEALTHCARE

Healthcare has lagged other industries in digital progress, but that is changing
rapidly. The increasingly clear promise of digital medicine, in our view, is a
more democratic, personalized, decentralized healthcare system that with any
luck will both allow for longer and healthier lives and create a long-term
investment opportunity that we see as on par with the semiconductor revolution.

Explore How to Capitalize on this Trend 



ANOTHER WAY TO SEEK TO DIVERSIFY FOR THE FUTURE

The growing amount of data that is available to investors and, more importantly,
the skill and ability to properly analyze and apply that data, is making it
possible to efficiently create highly targeted, differentiated thematic
portfolios. Using data as a key tool in portfolio construction allows both for
the potential both for surprise and for uncorrelated returns to traditional
equity and fixed income approaches.

Explore How to Capitalize on this Trend 
 PreviousNext 

The Value of Independent ESG Research

Investing in the Outlier Era

...



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