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All Sections Search Read The Diplomat, Know The Asia-Pacific My Account Sign In Subscribe Central Asia East Asia Oceania South Asia Southeast Asia | Security Politics Diplomacy Economy Society Environment | Magazine | All × search Regions * Central Asia * East Asia * Oceania * South Asia * Southeast Asia Topics * Diplomacy * Economy * Environment * Opinion * Politics * Security * Society Blogs * ASEAN Beat * Asia Defense * China Power * Crossroads Asia * Flashpoints * Oceania * Pacific Money * The Debate * The Koreas * The Pulse * Tokyo Report * Trans-Pacific View More * Features * Interviews * Photo Essays * Podcasts * Videos Magazine MARCH 2023 IS CHINA’S REFORM AND OPENING ERA OVER? The Diplomat * Home Page * About Us * Contact Us * Write for Us * * Advertise * Syndicate * Privacy * Newsletter * Subscriptions CHINA POWER HUNGRY CHINA’S GROWING INTEREST IN ‘FUTURE FOODS’ AND ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN RECENT FEATURES ECONOMY WHAT’S IN THE IMF’S NEW EXTENDED FUND FACILITY ARRANGEMENT FOR SRI LANKA? POLITICS OPPOSITION LEADER RAHUL GANDHI LOSES SEAT IN INDIAN PARLIAMENT ENVIRONMENT THE LAST DAYS OF BEAUTIFUL LUANG PRABANG SECURITY CHINA’S NAVAL STRATEGISTS DISSECT UKRAINE’S USV STRIKE ON RUSSIA’S BLACK SEA FLEET BASE SOCIETY PAKISTAN’S AURAT MARCH 2023: ANOTHER YEAR, SIMILAR CHALLENGES POLITICS FROM THE STREETS TO THE BALLOT BOX: EX-STUDENT PROTESTERS PREPARE FOR THAILAND’S ELECTION SECURITY CHINA SENDS MILITARY DRONES TO DRC AMID FEARS OF REGIONAL WAR SOCIETY KOREAN DIPLOMAT ACCUSED OF SEXUALLY ASSAULTING NEW ZEALAND MAN FACES RENEWED CHARGES AT HOME ENVIRONMENT ASIA-ARCTIC DIPLOMACY A DECADE LATER: WHAT HAS CHANGED? PHOTO ESSAYS BANGLADESHI FISHERS AND FARMERS AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIETY PAKISTAN’S CRICKET LEAGUE RISES ABOVE THE COUNTRY’S TROUBLES POLITICS THE AURA OF GOVERNANCE IN TURKMENISTAN CHINA POWER | SOCIETY | EAST ASIA HUNGRY CHINA’S GROWING INTEREST IN ‘FUTURE FOODS’ AND ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN Will China turn to lab-grown or plant-based alternatives to meat to meet surging demand? By Genevieve Donnellon-May and Zhang Hongzhou for The Diplomat May 04, 2022 Credit: Depositphotos Advertisement Safeguarding China’s food security has long been a high priority for the Chinese central government. In recent years, food security has been publicly linked to China’s national security by top officials. Although the Chinese central government’s policies and plans relating to food security have mainly stressed the importance of domestic production and diversification of food imports, less attention has been paid to the potential of alternative protein. Beijing’s Shifting View on Alternative Protein It appears that Beijing’s public view on alternative protein is beginning to shift. On March 6, Chinese President Xi Jinping reinforced the importance of food security during the 2022 session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. In his speech, he encouraged agriculture officials to seek protein sources outside of the traditional livestock industries to help safeguard China’s food supply. As part of this, Xi urged officials to create cell-cultured, plant-based, fermented animal protein alongside traditional food sources to not only secure food supply but also protect the environment. He also noted that innovation is key to China’s food security and sustainable development. Xi’s speech in March confirmed Chinese authorities’ growing interest in and plans for alternative protein. In January of this year, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the five-year agricultural plan (2021-2025). The plan, which is linked to the National Medium and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan (2021-2035) and 14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting Agricultural and Rural Modernization, included a section on “creating future foods” (未来食品制造) for the first time. This section referred to lab-grown meats and plant-based eggs as examples of future foods, which will be part of China’s blueprint for food security going forward. DIPLOMAT BRIEF WEEKLY NEWSLETTER N Get briefed on the story of the week, and developing stories to watch across the Asia-Pacific. Get the Newsletter China’s Enormous Appetite for Protein Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. The main reason for Beijing’s shift in thinking is the need to address China’s skyrocketing demand for protein. Following the unprecedented growth in demand for protein worldwide since the beginning of the 21st century, China’s protein consumption is projected to grow from 57 million metric tonnes in 2018 to 70 million metric tonnes by 2025. During this period, China is expected to account for 31 percent of the total global increase of protein consumption. China has a particularly insatiable appetite for meat. Since 2000, total global meat consumption has increased by approximately 2 percent per year with nearly 50 percent of this demand coming from China. By 2050, global demand for meat will almost double, according to the World Resources Institute. Much of this demand is expected to come from developing countries like China, which is the world’s largest meat producer as well as consumer and importer. As a recent Good Food Institute (GFI) report noted, China is one of the biggest arenas for transforming the global protein market. Intrinsically linked to health and socioeconomic background, meat has shifted from a rare treat to an everyday staple in China. Although the average person in China consumed under 5 kilograms of meat per year in the 1960s, today China is estimated to consume 28 percent of the world’s meat, including half of the world’s pork. Pork products dominate the Chinese market. For instance, between 2000 and 2019, the consumption of pork alone in China rose on average by 49.73 million metric tonnes. And the country’s enormous appetite for meat is likely to continue to grow. Present forecasts predict almost 30 percent of additional demand for meat by 2025, due to factors such as an expanding middle class and changing dietary preferences. Advertisement Alternative Proteins Alternative proteins are plant-based and food-technology alternatives to animal protein. They include food products made from plants, algae, insects, and cultured/lab-grown meat. Changing consumer behavior and interest in alternative-protein sources – due in part to health, price, and environmental concerns as well as animal welfare – have resulted in growth in the alternative proteins market, which is expected to skyrocket over the next few decades. Currently, the market base for alternative protein is approximately $2.2 billion in comparison to a global meat market of approximately $1.7 trillion. However, by 2050, the GFI predicts that the overall alternative protein market – including plant-based, fermentation-enabled, and cultivated meat – may be worth $250 billion in annual sales. One of the “future foods” mentioned in China’s five-year agricultural plan was cultivated meat. Cultivated or lab-grown meat is grown directly from animal cells rather than the raising and slaughtering of animals. A relatively new yet controversial technology, cultivated meat aims to overturn traditional animal agriculture by replacing slaughterhouses with laboratories. At present, only Singapore has approved the sale of cultivated meat (chicken) although other countries such as the Netherlands are heading in that direction. However, in recent years, the Chinese central government has demonstrated a growing interest in cultivated or lab-grown meat. In 2017, China signed a $300 million deal to import cultured-meat technology from Israel while in September 2021, Chinese cultivated meat start-up CellX closed a funding round of $4.3 million, months after the company’s initial pre-seed round in late 2020. Plant-based meat is another alternative protein that was also mentioned in the five-year plan. Despite regulatory approval for the commercial sale of cultivated meat in China having not yet been given, other alternatives, such as plant-based meat, are already produced and sold in China. In 2018, China’s market for plant-based meat substitutes was estimated at $910 million, compared with $684 million in the U.S., and is expected to increase by 20 to 25 percent annually. Implications and Challenges The shift in the Chinese central government’s policy comes at a time when Beijing is seeking to continue strengthening its commitment to food security through a dual food security strategy approach, heading against internal and external long-term challenges (such as domestic production deficits and climate change impacts) as well as growing new threats (such as rising fertilizer prices) against a backdrop of complex geopolitical events. These events, such as the Russia-Ukraine War and subsequent rise in food protectionism along with the lingering China-U.S. trade tensions, as well as the growing vulnerability of the global food supply chain due to accelerated climate change impacts and COVID-19-related disruptions, have all impacted China’s food security. In response to these concerns, Beijing is seeking to diversify its food imports for non-staples (such as soybeans) and agricultural trade routes, aiming to boost domestic agricultural production of staples (such as rice and wheat), looking to biotechnology for answers to achieve self-sufficiency, as well as attempting to reduce demand at home. Notably, Beijing has recently expand its push for self-sufficiency, having included meat and dairy self-sufficiency targets in its five-year plan. In December 2021, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released a five-year plan under which China will seek to maintain a target to meet 95 percent of protein demand domestically through 2025. As part of this, China aims to achieve full self-sufficiency for poultry and eggs and 95 percent self-sufficiency for pork. In addition, it seeks to reach 85 percent self-sufficiency in beef and mutton and 70 percent in dairy. Aside from being part of an overarching aim to safeguard food security, producing alternative protein domestically may be seen as a way of helping China achieve these new self-sufficiency targets. Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. However, concerns remain over how successful China’s food security policies, including greater domestic agricultural production, will be. For these reasons, Beijing may consider alternative protein, and in particularly lab-grown meat, as part of its answer to food insecurity concerns and greater push for self-sufficiency alongside other measures and policies. If approved for commercial sale, lab-grown meat and other forms of alternative protein may be used to help in the next decade and beyond to meet growing consumer demand for meat by offering consumers mass-produced alternative proteins. This approach could also avoid threats that affect animals, such as African Swine Fever and zoonotic diseases. Another aspect to consider is that the use of alternative protein, particularly lab-grown meat, could play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from raising or importing meat, and helping China meet carbon neutrality. China, the world’s biggest GHG emitter, has long been pushed by the international community to reduce GHG emissions. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, raising livestock for food accounts for up to 14.5 percent of global emissions. In China, the percentage is even greater: In 2014, the country’s livestock made up almost 29 percent of China’s indirect and direct agriculture emissions. Considering China’s limited natural resources (such as land and water) combined with labor and energy insecurity as well as its climate change commitments (such as the so-called “3060” goals), using stem-cell meat and other approaches may be seen as a potential (partial) answer to these concerns, despite sustainability and food safety concerns. China’s growing interest in “future foods” and alternative proteins could have implications for major meat exporting countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. Although China is the world’s biggest meat consumer, the country is also the biggest meat producer and as such, is already self-sufficient in protein such as pork to a high degree. Thus, any reduction in meat and animal feed imports by China means that millions more tonnes will be available for other meat importing countries such as Japan and South Korea and many feed importing countries. This may have a ripple effect on grain and meat prices in major exporting countries as well as worldwide. Advertisement In conclusion, Beijing’s shifting view on cultivated meat and other “future foods” reflects its commitment to securing the country’s food security, including through domestic production, and diversification of food sources. At the same time, it is an acknowledgement of and a means of addressing nation-wide issues, including diminishing natural resources, skyrocketing protein demand, and climate change commitments as well as addressing the changing dietary preferences of an expanding middle-class and growing population. If regulatory approval is granted as expected, this could make China the biggest market for and a world leader in alternative protein (such as insect-based protein, pea protein, seaweed, plant-based meat, etc.) alongside the establishment of “agricultural Silicon Valley hubs” for research and development. However, this is not without concerns or challenges. At present, regulatory governance frameworks and methods or plans of scaling up production of alternative protein in China are yet to be seen. For consumers, there could be issues surrounding food safety and sustainability concerns, which may need to be addressed first. For major meat and animal feed exporting countries, changing dietary preferences of Chinese consumers to alternative protein could impact their levels of agricultural exports and consequently national GDP, forcing countries to search for alternative markets while farmers may eventually look to producing other crops instead. You have reached the limit of 5 free articles a month. You have read 1 of your 5 free articles this month. Subscribe to Diplomat All-Access Enjoy full access to the website and get an automatic subscription to our magazine with a Diplomat All-Access subscription. Subscribe Now Already a subscriber? Login here Authors GUEST AUTHOR GENEVIEVE DONNELLON-MAY Genevieve Donnellon-May is a master's candidate in Water, Science and Policy at the University of Oxford. Her interests include China, Africa, and regional resource governance. Genevieve's work has been published by AsiaGlobal Online, the Diplomat, Inter-Press Service, and the Wilson Center's New Security Beat. GUEST AUTHOR ZHANG HONGZHOU Dr. Zhang Hongzhou is a research fellow with the China Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He received his Ph.D. in Public Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. His main research interests include regional and global resources conflicts and governance, game theory, discourse analysis, emerging technologies. Tags * China Power * Society * East Asia * China * alternative proteins * China food demand * China food security * cultured meat * lab-grown meat COVID-19 IN ASIA C FEBRUARY 08, 2023 JAPAN DOWNGRADES COVID-19 THREAT DESPITE SPIKE IN DEATHS JANUARY 26, 2023 AFTER AN ASTONISHING YEAR, CHINESE SEE A BRIGHTER POST-COVID FUTURE JANUARY 25, 2023 ASIA TRAVEL HOTSPOTS QUIET AS CHINESE TOURISTS STAY AWAY MULTIMEDIA M MARCH 24, 2023 THE AUKUS PARTNERS EXPLAIN THEIR PHASED APPROACH. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? MARCH 24, 2023 THIS WEEK IN ASIA: MARCH 24, 2023 MARCH 17, 2023 THIS WEEK IN ASIA: MARCH 17, 2023 INTERVIEW I MARCH 20, 2023 SINGAPORE ABSORBS CHINESE CAPITAL BY MERCY A. KUO Insights from Angelo Venardos. MAGAZINE M MARCH 01, 2023 CHINA’S RISE REVERBERATES IN TAJIKISTAN MARCH 01, 2023 FROM HOPE TO DESPAIR IN MYANMAR MARCH 01, 2023 IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, THE PACIFIC LEADS BOLDLY MARCH 01, 2023 IS CHINA’S REFORM AND OPENING ERA OVER? RELATED R JULY 19, 2021 WHAT CULTURED MEAT CAN TELL US ABOUT CHINA BY BONNIE GIRARD A new survey on a niche product provides a window into changing attitudes, and even has implications for Chinese national security. FEBRUARY 28, 2020 DON’T FORGET CHINA’S OTHER VIRAL OUTBREAK BY MADISON PLASTER China’s efforts to contain coronavirus are stalling recovery from an earlier African Swine Fever outbreak, with implications for food security. MARCH 09, 2023 HOW IS INDIA VIEWED IN CHINA? BY MU CHUNSHAN Chinese views of India are very complicated – but generally based on a sense of superiority and self-confidence. FEBRUARY 25, 2023 GENSHIN IMPACT AND CHINESE NATIONALISM BY SONG TANG The mega-success of the RPG is seen as a win for China’s soft power. TOP STORIES T MARCH 23, 2023 CHINA’S NAVAL STRATEGISTS DISSECT UKRAINE’S USV STRIKE ON RUSSIA’S BLACK SEA FLEET BASE BY LYLE GOLDSTEIN AND NATHAN WAECHTER The attack on Sevastopol six months ago may not have had the intended impact, but could have reverberations for the naval rivalry in the western Pacific. MARCH 21, 2023 SOUTH KOREA WILL STAY OUT OF A TAIWAN STRAIT WAR BY DENNY ROY There is good reason to think South Korea would limit its support to actions near the low end of the spectrum. MARCH 21, 2023 INDIA CAN BRIDGE THE US-RUSSIA DIVIDE OVER UKRAINE, IF IT CHOOSES BY DEREK GROSSMAN No country is as well-positioned as India to mediate between Moscow and Washington, and bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. MARCH 20, 2023 CHINA SENDS MILITARY DRONES TO DRC AMID FEARS OF REGIONAL WAR BY ROBERT BOCIAGA The DRC has purchased Chinese attack drones, raising concerns about China’s role in exacerbating the DRC-Rwanda conflict. FEATURES F MARCH 25, 2023 WHAT’S IN THE IMF’S NEW EXTENDED FUND FACILITY ARRANGEMENT FOR SRI LANKA? BY MICHAEL IVESON The IMF’s $2.9 billion EFF program lays out major structural reforms required to restore long-term macroeconomic stability in Sri Lanka. MARCH 24, 2023 OPPOSITION LEADER RAHUL GANDHI LOSES SEAT IN INDIAN PARLIAMENT BY SUDHA RAMACHANDRAN His disqualification is a setback to his Congress party. But can Gandhi turn things to his party's advantage? MARCH 24, 2023 THE LAST DAYS OF BEAUTIFUL LUANG PRABANG BY TOM FAWTHROP UNESCO experts insist that a huge dam would destroy the “authenticity and integrity” of the World Heritage Site in Laos. MARCH 23, 2023 CHINA’S NAVAL STRATEGISTS DISSECT UKRAINE’S USV STRIKE ON RUSSIA’S BLACK SEA FLEET BASE BY LYLE GOLDSTEIN AND NATHAN WAECHTER The attack on Sevastopol six months ago may not have had the intended impact, but could have reverberations for the naval rivalry in the western Pacific. BLOGS B MARCH 27, 2023 CAMBODIA AND THAILAND: A TALE OF TWO ELECTIONS BY LUKE HUNT The two countries have both been criticized in recent years for violating democratic norms, but that’s about where the similarities end. MARCH 27, 2023 US IMPOSES NEW SANCTIONS ON MILITARY-RULED MYANMAR BY SEBASTIAN STRANGIO The latest round of sanctions aims to cut off the Myanmar military's access to aviation fuel, following a series of deadly airstrikes on civilian populations. MARCH 27, 2023 THAI PM LAUNCHES ELECTION CAMPAIGN, PLEDGES ‘NEW POLITICAL CLIMATE’ BY SEBASTIAN STRANGIO Launching the United Thai Nation Party's campaign, the former general promised to "move beyond" the conflict that has gripped Thai politics over the past two decades. MARCH 27, 2023 WHO IS VIETNAM’S GORBACHEV? BY DAVID HUTT For some supporters of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the last party secretary of the Soviet Union offers a cautionary tale. 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