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https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/in-virginia-late-spending-doesnt-always-tilt-elections/a...
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In Virginia, late spending doesn't always tilt elections
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Presented By

JUST IN

HOUSE APPROVES IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY INTO PRESIDENT BIDEN AS REPUBLICANS RALLY
BEHIND INVESTIGATION

NOV. 7 ELECTION

IN VIRGINIA, LATE SPENDING DOESN'T ALWAYS TILT ELECTIONS

* Dave Ress
* Dec 11, 2023
* Dec 11, 2023
* 1

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Advertisement: 0:08

Governor Glenn Youngkin speaks to reporters on the steps of the Virginia State
Capitol on Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023.

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Outspending your opponent in the final run-up to Election Day can help nail down
a win, the biggest last-minute spender in this year’s General Assembly races
found.

But it doesn’t guarantee anything, a Richmond Times-Dispatch analysis of
campaign finance reports for the final five days of October and all of November
shows.

A Richmond Times-Dispatch analysis shows that late spending does not always
translate into victory in Virginia’s legislative contests.

Mike Kropf, TIMES-DISPATCH

The reports show candidates in the hottest races put pedal to the metal for
fundraising — and spending.

They also hint at races where there may have been some last-minute jitters.

And they show would-be caucus leaders racking up large sums and making large
donations in what is often a prelude to post-Election Day jockeying for
influence.

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* Highland Springs meets juggernaut Freedom in highly anticipated Class 6
football final
* Key Virginia lawmakers back arena deal for NBA's Wizards, NHL's Capitals
* VCU reimagines its academic identity as it faces financial challenges
* Hanover police identify victim of Sunday night crash
* VCU prepared to pursue 'legal action' over NCAA's denial of Joe Bamisile
waiver
* Suspect charged in Glen Allen double homicide of father, son
* Winner declared after recount in Henrico County court clerk race
* New restaurant headed for Postbellum spot in the Fan
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The biggest spender in the period, Democrat Joshua Thomas, running in a Prince
William County House of Delegates district, spent $864,261 during the 35-day
period, mostly in the form of $678,000 for advertising 11 and four days before
Election Day.

Thomas won that race in House District 21 52% to 48%, defeating John Stirrup,
who spent just under $630,000.

But the No. 2 big spender in the period, Republican Juan Pablo Segura, lost to
Democrat Russet Perry in a Loudoun County-anchored state Senate District 31 by a
margin of 53% to 47%, after spending more than $852,000, including nearly
$92,000 worth of in-kind, non-cash help. Perry’s spending in late October and
November totaled $725,000.

Democrat Russet Perry topped Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the Loudoun
County-based 31st Senate District.

Closer to home, in the Richmond area, the No. 3 ranked last-minute spender, Del.
Schuyler VanValkenburg, D-Henrico, cruised to a 55% to 45% win over state Sen.
Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, in Henrico’s Senate District 16. He outspent her —
with his more than $812,000 to just under $636,000 for Dunnavant.

Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg, D-Henrico, topped Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant,
R-Henrico, in Henrico's Senate District 16.

Eva Russo, Times-Dispatch

But big spending wasn’t enough to bring Democrat Susanna Gibson a win in
Henrico’s House District 57.

The race drew international attention following reports that Gibson and her
husband had livestreamed sex acts online.

Nurse practitioner and former Democratic candidate for the Virginia House of
Delegates, Susanna Gibson, shown at her home in Henrico County last month.

Steve Helber, Associated Press

Gibson lost to Republican David Owen 51% to 49% in what had been a
Democratic-leaning district after last-minute spending of more than $355,000 by
Gibson to Owen’s $131,000.

And in the tightest House race of all, it’s not entirely clear whether big
spending swung the race. Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams spent nearly $514,000,
including non-cash, in-kind services valued at nearly $183,000, in the late
going in an effort to flip the Petersburg-anchored House District 82. Del. Kim
Taylor, R-Dinwiddie, eked out a 78-vote edge after last-minute spending of just
over $334,000. (Adams has filed a petition for a recount).

Del. Kim Taylor, R-Dinwiddie, left, and Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams ran for the
House of Delegates seat for the cities of Petersburg and Dinwiddie, Prince
George and Surry counties.

Outspending state Sen. Monty Mason, D-Williamsburg, paid off for former
York-Poquoson Sheriff Danny Diggs in the closest state Senate race. Diggs eked
out a 725-vote win after last-minute spending of more than $692,000 to Mason’s
$484,000. Their spending totals include two of the biggest totals of in-kind
help — services, as opposed to cash: nearly $107,000 worth for Diggs and just
over $210,000 for Mason.

The campaign reports suggest some unexpected and apparently unjustified
last-minute worries. Del. Danica Roem, D-Prince William, was the biggest late
money-raiser among state Senate candidates, bringing in more than $638,000, for
a race she won 52% to 48%.

Del. Danica Roem, D-Prince William, right, topped Republican Bill Woolf in
Senate District 30.

Her opponent, Bill Woolf, was the No. 2 fundraiser, collecting nearly $625,000.

The candidates who spent more than these top fundraising totals did so by
drawing down on balances they built up earlier.

Del. Clinton Jenkins, D-Suffolk, lost to Del. Emily Brewer, D-Suffolk, in Senate
District 17.

In western Tidewater, Del. Emily Brewer, R-Isle of Wight, raised nearly $508,000
in a Senate race she won with 52% of votes cast. Her opponent in Senate District
17, Del. Clinton Jenkins, D-Suffolk, had not filed by the state Department of
Elections midnight-Thursday deadline.

In a Democratic-leaning Virginia Beach Senate district, state Sen. Aaron Rouse,
D-Virginia Beach, spent just under $282,000 to Republican challenger Kevin
Adams’ nearly $153,000 in the late going. Rouse won in Senate District 22 with
55% to 45% for Adams.

Some of the bigger fundraisers and spenders, though, faced little or no
competition. State Sen. Mamie Locke, D-Hampton, the Democratic caucus chair,
raised more than $120,000 and spent more than $274,000 in the period — $250,000
of it for the caucus itself, which in turn is a big donor to Democratic
candidate campaigns.

The new Senate majority leader, Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, raised nearly
$106,000 and spent $450,000, including $350,000 to the caucus with other big
donations to Democratic candidates.

On the GOP side, Senate minority leader Ryan McDougle, R-Hanover, raised $55,000
and spent nearly $161,000 in the late stages.

Voters cast ballots at the Virginia Museum of History & Culture in Richmond on
Election Day last month.

Mike Kropf, TIMES-DISPATCH

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A Richmond Times-Dispatch analysis shows that late spending does not always
translate into victory in Virginia’s legislative contests.

* Mike Kropf, TIMES-DISPATCH

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Voters cast ballots at the Virginia Museum of History & Culture in Richmond on
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* Mike Kropf, TIMES-DISPATCH

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Democrat Russet Perry topped Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the Loudoun
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Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg, D-Henrico, topped Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant,
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Nurse practitioner and former Democratic candidate for the Virginia House of
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