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ARE SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS TEMPORARY, OR PART OF A NEW NORMAL? 5 THINGS YOU
SHOULD KNOW ABOUT SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

Interruptions in the supply chain have made scarcity a day-to-day business
reality in 2021, impacting the availability of manufacturing components,
finished products on store shelves, and the cost of everything from cars to
books to new homes.

When manufacturing and transportation issues – and the accompanying spike in
shipping prices – began in the spring, some saw it as a temporary situation
caused by pent up consumer demand for products meeting declining inventories, a
re-emerging workforce, and ongoing travel restrictions.

Early on, shortages hit industries such as auto manufacturing that rely on
complex networks of suppliers. However, supply chain bottlenecks have persisted
and are affecting prices and availability of products across many industries. As
of August 2021, the Producer Price Index was up 8.3% on a year-on-year basis.
Transportation and warehousing prices rose 2.8% in August.

With the rise of the Delta variant, factories continue to struggle to secure raw
materials, finished components and labor; transportation logistics continue to
be complicated; and delays mount.

What are the factors worth thinking about now – and how might they affect your
clients’ portfolios? Here are a few things to keep in mind.

1. The cost of transporting everything has skyrocketed

From the start of 2020 to August of this year, the cost of shipping a container
from China spiked to as much as $26,000.1 That translates into a significant
rise in expenses for clothing, appliances, machinery, and other products that
frequently fill those containers. Other forms of transportation, such as air
cargo, railroads, trucking have their own complications, including labor
shortages.

2. Effects are being felt far beyond auto manufacturing and home building

While much as been reported about CPU shortages in the auto industry and lumber
shortages for home builders, other sectors are also feeling the fallout. For
example, in 2021 print book sales are up 18.5% for the year, yet publishers are
facing a shortage of paper2. The same is true for food and beverage
manufacturers and others who rely on paper goods.

3. 2021 holiday shopping will likely be affected

While the advice from booksellers – and other retailers – is to get a jump on
holiday gift purchases, the holiday shopping season will still likely be
impacted, with bare shelves and higher prices. Some consumer products
manufacturers have looked to alternative manufacturing and transportation
sources, and others have acknowledged that they will be unable to meet typical
consumer demand. However, a variety of retail analysts foresee holiday sales
increasing about 7 to 9% versus 2020.

4. The factors contributing to shortages are complex

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted that the supply chain has always been a
complicated issue and is influenced by many factors including interconnected
global markets, just-in-time inventory, labor issues, and transportation. As
pandemic conditions change, these factors will likely continue to be important.

5. Businesses are feeling the impact in sales and profits

We believe shortages of raw materials and escalating transportation costs will
be part of the calculus for companies of many kinds in 2021. Revenues and
profits are likely to be affected.

As you look to areas impacted by supply chain uncertainties, FundVisualizer can
help you identify your clients’ portfolios’ exposure by sector and asset
allocation, as well as their top holdings. Click here to go to FundVisualizer,
and for tips on how to best use FundVisualizer, check out our resources library.

1 Peter S. Goodman and Keith Bradsher, “The World is Still Short of Everything.
Get Used to It ,” The New York Times, August 30, 2021.

2 Jim Milliot, “Print Book Sales Soar in Year's First Half,” Publishers Weekly,
July 9, 2021.





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