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2022: Where the new year meets the predictable

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HOUSING FORECAST

By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO

The focus on how we live and what home means to each individual continued in the
year 2021. We saw strong Sales Activity Intensity in the local market for each
new listing in most price ranges and areas. The year 2022 is poised to be
another great year in residential real estate, with strong buyer demand shaping
the market. Though we face new challenges and opportunities each year in real
estate, I’d like to show you how the real estate market’s yearly trends are
actually quite predictable! Keep reading to learn more about real estate in 2021
and find out my top two predictions for next year.

By: J. Lennox Scott Chairman and CEO

The year 2022 is poised to be another great year in residential real estate

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Historically low interest rates and extremely strong buyer demand made the year
2021 one characterized by median price increases and strong Sales Activity
Intensity . Though 2021 brought new trends and activity to the real estate
market, some of the common trends you find year after year were present. The
number of homes coming on the market peaks during the spring/summer time, with
the number of homes going under contract following a similar trend line.

Year 2021 recap

Two factors will continue moving the market forward in 2022: a stronger national
economy, historically low interest rates and a continued desire to lay down
roots elsewhere that I call “The Great Reshuffle.” Here are my top two
predictions for the year 2022:

2022 forecast

1 The Sales Activity Intensity index is a John L. Scott term for the percentage
of new resale listings going under contract within the first 30 days on the
market. At this time, many homes go under contract within the first week on
market.

1 | Intensity adjustment: The year will begin with strong Sales Activity
Intensity . Economists are forecasting interest rates will rise in the year
ahead. If this takes place, we expect the market will go through the seasonal
intensity adjustment as more listings come on the market in summer.

2 | Price appreciation: The local market has seen price appreciation in the last
two years. We anticipate that price appreciation will moderate slightly this
year. After price gains in the spring, pricing may lower back down slightly this
summer. However, the year 2022 will end with positive price appreciation
overall.

3 | Upper-end market: Market activity in the upper-end price ranges has taken
off over the last two years and will continue to be a strong segment of the
local market due to buyers moving in from other markets, the wealth effect and
historically low interest rates. .

Though interest rates are projected to go higher in 2022, it’s important to
understand that they will still be historically low. Past 30-year fixed loan
interest rates have been six, seven, eight percent or higher. Even rates above
3% are incredibly competitive compared to the last five years and even the last
five decades! Understanding what your monthly mortgage payment could be
considering a home’s list price and current interest rates can help you better
visualize what your future could look like. Plugging numbers into a mortgage
calculator can be a good start – or better yet, connect with a lender to get
pre-approved or fully underwritten for a home purchase. If you’re already a
homeowner, you might be surprised to find out what your home is worth in today’s
market. Your broker associate can prepare a competitive market analysis of your
home, sharing the current market value and local buyer demand for homes like
yours.

Opportunities in 2022

Tips for buyers and sellers in 2022

For buyers, it’s crucial to be Buyer Ready - Day ONE . Your broker associate can
consult with you to share strategies to win in multiple-offer situations, get
pre-approved or fully underwritten through a lender, and receive instant
email/text notification of newly listed properties. Although it’s a seller’s
market, being Market Ready - Day ONE as a homeowner elevates the interest of the
backlog of buyers who will put an offer on your property. Our Seller Listing
Launch system combines the best in marketing and pricing strategy to help
sellers obtain the best price.

Possible headwinds in 2022 include decreased affordability due to price
increases and higher home mortgage interest rates, inflation, and the potential
for higher taxes on the state and federal level. Additionally, the industry may
be impacted by rising energy costs, along with supply chain and staffing issues.

About John L. Scott Real Estate

John L. Scott Real Estate, led by third-generation Chairman and CEO J. Lennox
Scott, has been helping buyers and sellers realize their homeownership dreams
since 1931. John L. Scott has over 100 offices with more than 3,000 brokers in
Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. John L. Scott is recognized as one of
the top 20 residential real estate brands in the nation. Annually, John L. Scott
closes over 34,000 transactions, totaling more than 16 billion dollars in sales
volume. In support of the company’s core value, Living Life as a Contribution ,
the John L. Scott Foundation helped sponsor 25 events for 16 children’s
hospitals in 2020, which helped raise over $13 million for children’s
healthcare.

Home Mortgage Interest Rates Over the Decades

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Strong Sales Activity Intensity Ahead

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HOUSING FORECAST
By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO

Strong Sales Activity Intensity   Ahead
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2022: Where the new year            meets the predictable


By: J. Lennox ScottChairman and CEO
The focus on how we live and what home means to each individual continued in the year 2021. We saw strong Sales Activity Intensity    in the local market for each new listing in most price ranges and areas. 

The year 2022 is poised to be another great year in residential real estate, with strong buyer demand shaping the market. Though we face new challenges and opportunities each year in real estate, I’d like to show you how the real estate market’s yearly trends are actually quite predictable! 

Keep reading to learn more about real estate in 2021 and find out my top two predictions for next year. 
TM  1

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The year 2022 is poised to be another great year in residential real estate



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Year 2021 recap
Historically low interest rates and extremely strong buyer demand made  
the year 2021 one characterized by median price increases and strong  
Sales Activity Intensity  . 

Though 2021 brought new trends and activity to the real estate market, some of the common trends you find year after year were present. The number of homes coming on the market peaks during the spring/summer time, with the number of homes going under contract following a similar trend line. 

Find out more

TM 

1 The Sales Activity Intensity   index is a John L. Scott term for the percentage of new resale listings   going under contract within the first 30 days on the market. At this time, many homes go under   contract within the first week on market.
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2022 forecast
Two factors will continue moving the market forward in 2022: a stronger national economy, historically low interest rates and a continued desire to  
lay down roots elsewhere that I call “The Great Reshuffle.” 

Here are my top two predictions for the year 2022: 
1 | Intensity adjustment: The year will begin with strong Sales Activity Intensity   . Economists are forecasting interest rates will rise in the year ahead. If this takes place, we expect the market will go through the seasonal intensity adjustment as more listings come on the market in summer. 
TM 

2 | Price appreciation: The local market has seen price appreciation in the last two years. We anticipate that price appreciation will moderate slightly this year. After price gains in the spring, pricing may lower back down slightly this summer. However, the year 2022 will end with positive price appreciation overall.      



Home Mortgage Interest Rates Over the Decades











Opportunities in 2022
Though interest rates are projected to go higher in 2022, it’s important to understand that they will still be historically low. Past 30-year fixed loan interest rates have been six, seven, eight percent or higher. Even rates above 3% are incredibly competitive compared to the last five years and even the last five decades!  

Understanding what your monthly mortgage payment could be considering a home’s list price and current interest rates can help you better visualize what your future could look like. Plugging numbers into a mortgage calculator can be a good start – or better yet, connect with a lender to get pre-approved or fully underwritten for a home purchase.  

If you’re already a homeowner, you might be surprised to find out what your home is worth in today’s market. Your broker associate can prepare a competitive market analysis of your home, sharing the current market value and local buyer demand for homes like yours. 



Tips for buyers and sellers in 2022
TM 
For buyers, it’s crucial to be Buyer Ready - Day ONE  . Your broker associate can consult with you to share strategies to win in multiple-offer situations, get pre-approved or fully underwritten through a lender, and receive instant email/text notification of newly listed properties. 

Although it’s a seller’s market, being Market Ready - Day ONE   as a homeowner elevates the interest of the backlog of buyers who will put an offer on your property. Our Seller Listing Launch  system combines the best in marketing and pricing strategy to help sellers obtain the best price. 
TM 
®

Possible headwinds in 2022 include decreased affordability due to price increases and higher home mortgage interest rates, inflation, and the potential for higher taxes on the state and federal level. Additionally, the industry may be impacted by rising energy costs, along with supply chain and staffing issues. 


About John L. Scott Real Estate 
John L. Scott Real Estate, led by third-generation Chairman and  
CEO J. Lennox Scott, has been helping buyers and sellers realize their homeownership dreams since 1931. John L. Scott has over 100 offices with more than 3,000 brokers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California.  
John L. Scott is recognized as one of the top 20 residential real estate brands in the nation. Annually, John L. Scott closes over 34,000 transactions, totaling more than 16 billion dollars in sales volume. In support of the company’s core value, Living Life as a Contribution , the John L. Scott Foundation helped sponsor 25 events for 16 children’s hospitals in 2020, which helped raise over $13 million for children’s healthcare. 
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