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US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FIRST-QUARTER 2022

What makes our research different?

 * A focus on economic moats 
 * Rigorous DCF-based valuations 
 * Long-term orientation 
 * Consistent methodology across a large, global coverage universe

Discussion about the economic outlook is absorbed by near-term issues such as
supply chain disruptions, omicron, and (most of all) the war in Ukraine.
However, we think most of these headwinds are distracting other forecasters from
a clear perspective on the U.S. economy's productive capacity. The result is
that we expect U.S. real gross domestic product growth through 2025 to be
higher, and inflation to be lower, than consensus expects.

Ultimately, we expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to calibrate the GDP to fall in
line with its potential: the economy's long-run productive capacity. As such,
our optimistic long-run growth forecast is determined by our assessment of the
supply-side building blocks of GDP: labor supply and productivity.

Fill out the form to download your free report

Morningstar analysts evaluate investments from the investor’s perspective. Every
conclusion they make has only the end investor’s interest in mind. That means we
call it like we see it—and that we’re never afraid to take a contrary view.

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