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2023 INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: WHAT WE CAN EXPECT

by Matthew IakJanuary 12, 2023January 14, 2023
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As a privately held upstream exploration and production (E&P) company in the oil
and gas sector, it’s important to prioritize strategic planning for the new
year. As an executive with Arlington, Texas-based U.S. Energy Development
Corporation (U.S. Energy), strategic planning plays an integral part of our
firm’s goal setting for the next year. Thanks to widespread discussion among our
management team, we’re pleased to share some of our perspectives. The following
includes a recap of the recent past and a few thoughts on what we expect to see
in the new year.

Maintaining Momentum

The year 2022 was prosperous for the oil and gas industry as a whole. The macro
conditions, which emboldened the oil and gas industry in 2022, will continue
into 2023 for upstream E&P players. This includes the Ukraine/Russia war, E&P
companies practicing capital discipline (limiting drilling), and the
continuation of strong global demand. In addition, there is potentially an
increased demand that will occur when China eventually emerges from a
post-COVID-19 lockdown economy, a reversion in the strength of the U.S. dollar,
and the eventual restocking of the strategic oil reserves. All of these factors
should add upward pressure to commodity prices in 2023. Longer term, there’s a
growing consensus that a meaningful transition to renewables would require more,
not less, oil and gas consumption for at least the next two decades.



Overall, we’re excited about the oil and gas industry E&P outlook, and we
anticipate that prices are likely to push even higher – even if a “hard landing”
or a potential recession looms on the horizon. The supply demand imbalance is
more systemic, and we are currently anticipating higher prices for the
foreseeable future.

U.S. Politics

A split government will most likely mean less change and more stability.
Potentially, there’s an increased chance for negotiation that could lead to
further improvements in both infrastructure and banking regulations. Both
factors have the potential to encourage more U.S. oil and natural gas
production, potentially avoiding a much larger price spike in the future as
demand continues to outstrip supply. If no improvements are made, and the U.S.
is unable to continue increasing production, the whole world may suffer much
higher prices in the future. Let’s hope compromise is more likely in a split
government.

Geopolitics

It’s difficult to see the current war in Ukraine as anything other than a
long-term travesty, which means European countries are going to continue to seek
solutions to replace Russia’s energy supplies. Uniquely in 2022, there appeared
to be a monumental shift in the way the world sees natural gas, due to the
aforementioned national securities needs surrounding hydrocarbons. Additionally,
and more surprisingly, the perception of natural gas has shifted from that of a
dirty hydrocarbon to becoming part of the environmental, social and governance
(ESG) solution. Natural gas has long been known to be among the cleanest and
most efficient fuel options to create and power the additional energy demands
created by a growing global population. Ultimately, this may lead to an increase
in the base price of U.S. natural gas for the next decade, and perhaps beyond.
As the U.S. is poised to ship an increasing amount of its reserves to a global
market, one can only conclude that U.S. pricing will achieve more parity in
global pricing. Thus, both domestic oil and natural gas projects have solid
footing going into 2023 and beyond.

Acquisition & Divestiture Outlook

The past two years have seen a flurry of A&D activity as major E&P companies
focus their capital on operational projects in their “core” acreage, while
divesting of non-operated interests in projects. These industry changes have
allowed U.S. Energy to gain unprecedented access to projects across multiple
basins. In 2022, we evaluated more than 160 deals and deployed approximately
$200 million across 12 projects in the Permian, Powder River and Haynesville
Basins. With an excess of high quality and quantity of deal flow, we anticipate
deploying an additional $400 – $500 million over the next 18 to 24 months. The
past four years have helped us build a core group of world-class joint venture
partners, joint developments we look forward to continuing, as well as the
ongoing new deal flow.

Due to our ability to be nimble and flexible in the way we can structure deal
terms, U.S. Energy is uniquely positioned compared to many others in the
industry. This flexibility allows us to tailor the deal structure to the needs
of our project partners. We prefer to build long-term relationships with our
partners. Our most successful relationships are those which allow us to help
them achieve their goals by allowing us to structure investments that help all
parties reach their goals. Regardless of whether partners need to develop assets
at a faster pace, diversify with co-investments, utilize us as an operator or
address a host of other needs, U.S. Energy is able to structure transactions
that are designed to achieve those results. We think 2023 will be another banner
year.

On Capital and Investor Interest in 2023

In 2022, we’ve surpassed eight billion humans on planet earth. The need for both
renewable and traditional energies will continue to increase. Simply put,
efficiencies cannot keep pace with growth of consumption until the population
and need for energy stop growing, which is likely not happening in the lifetime
of anyone reading this article.

Note: this article contains forward-looking statements regarding anticipatory
economic and commodity pricing performance that are based on assumptions,
estimates and other judgments made considering information available at the
time. Accordingly, actual results may differ materially from such statements.

Headline photo courtesy of U.S. Energy Development Corporation.



Author Profile

MATTHEW IAK

Executive Vice-President - U.S. Energy Development Corporation

Matthew Iak  is the executive vice president of U.S. Energy Development
Corporation (USEDC) and a member of the company’s Board of Directors. Iak is
also the president and CEO of Westmoreland Capital. He has extensive knowledge
of private placement, Regulation D, and estate and tax planning strategies. He
has pioneered the way for multiple new investment structures in the oil and gas
space. Since 2005, Iak has overseen a capital raise of approximately $2.0
billion. He can be reached at miak@usedc.com. 


Author Articles
 * Matthew Iak
   https://oilmanmagazine.com/author/matthew-iak/
   
   September 8, 2023
   Revisiting Qualified Opportunity Zones
 * Matthew Iak
   https://oilmanmagazine.com/author/matthew-iak/
   
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   Environmental Strategies That Work
 * Matthew Iak
   https://oilmanmagazine.com/author/matthew-iak/
   
   May 6, 2022
   Where Can Investors Turn to Hedge Their Bets Against Inflation?
 * Matthew Iak
   https://oilmanmagazine.com/author/matthew-iak/
   
   September 3, 2021
   (Missed) Opportunity Zones – Why Investors Should Take Note



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1 COMMENT

2023 Industry Outlook: What We Can Expect  | U.S. Energy January 17, 2023 at
1:53 PM

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