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THE BANK CRISIS HAS RAISED THE ODDS OF A RECESSION IN THE NEXT YEAR TO 35%,
ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS


Phil Rosen
2023-03-16T14:57:39Z
Phil Rosen
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Silicon Valley Bank was shut down by regulators on Friday. Getty Images
 * Goldman Sachs raised its recession odds from 25% to 35% on Thursday. 
 * The Wall Street firm's new outlook stems from "increased near-term
   uncertainty," the strategists said. 
 * The bank turmoil with Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and others has
   fueled unrest in the global economy. 

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Goldman Sachs just raised its odds for a recession as turmoil in the banking
system continues to unfold. 

Strategists led by Goldman's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said there's now a
35% chance of a US recession, up from the bank's previous forecast of 25%. They
cited "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank
stress. 

Thursday's research note follows a separate forecast from Goldman that slashed
2023 GDP outlook by 0.3% to 1.2%.


Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Over the last week, Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank
have all closed down, and other financial institutions including First Republic
and Credit Suisse are facing turmoil.




Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank
failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual during the 2008
crisis. 

The fallout in the banking system has raised the chances of a downturn, in
Goldman's view, even as markets price in smaller rate hikes or a pause from the
Federal Reserve at the March meeting. CME's FedWatch Tool on Thursday showed
traders are giving about a 25% chance to no rate hike next week, and about a 75%
chance of a quarter-point hike.

Before SVB's collapse on Friday, markets had been expecting a 50-basis-point
move.

The bank crisis shouldn't have come as a surprise to markets, given the Fed's
rapid withdrawal of liquidity and policy tightening of the last year, according
to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. 




"Until this week, markets had broadly ignored the threats that tightening policy
was starting to uncover," Shah wrote in a note Thursday. "The latest turmoil,
however, has quickly reminded investors that risk assets simply cannot escape
the wrath of monetary tightening."

Meanwhile, famed "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman warned that a pause in the
Fed's tightening campaign would ultimately negatively weigh on stocks.  

"If the Fed is scared, you should be scared," he said in a CNBC interview on
Wednesday. 

DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas warned in a note Thursday that
stocks would fare poorly should the Fed pump the brakes, and it would mean
policymakers are pivoting for all the wrong reasons.



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