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 * What is Risk Literacy?
 * For Researchers
 * Training
 * People
 * Publications
 * Funders and Support
 * Contact

 * 


DO YOU UNDERSTAND RISK?

Click below to find out how risk literate you are compared to educated people
from around the world.

Take the 2 minute test in:

 * English
 * Spanish/Español
 * German/Deutsch
 * Dutch/Nederlands
 * French/Français

Risk is everywhere and many people, including doctors, financial consultants,
judges and journalists struggle to accurately perceive, evaluate, and
communicate risks.

Our software will give you automatic, personalized feedback indicating your
score on the Berlin Numeracy Test, a validated research tool used to predict
risk literacy in educated people from around the world. You will not be required
to enter any identifying personal information (e.g., participation is anonymous,
there are no requests for emails or names) although we may ask some basic
demographic or validation questions so that we can continue to improve the test.


WHAT IS RISK LITERACY?

Risk literacy refers to one’s practical ability to evaluate and understand risk
in the service of skilled and informed decision making. In some ways our ability
to understand risk depends on external factors like the design of risk
communications (e.g., simple visual aids can promote or bias risk
comprehension). In other ways risk literacy depends on specific skills and
abilities. For example, one’s practical understanding of mathematics (i.e.,
numeracy especially statistical numeracy) tends to be the strongest single
predictor of risk literacy and general decision making skill (for a recent
review see Skilled Decision Theory; Cokely et al., 2018). In part this is
because math is the language of risk and science. The statistical aspects of
numeracy are essential features of risk assessment in health, business, and
engineering. Statistical information plays some role in virtually all formal
risk analyses and risk communications. These statistical numeracy skills are
also among the most influential educational factors associated with economic
prosperity in industrialized countries. Nevertheless, the psychology of skilled
decision making isn’t about cold calculation or simply “doing the math”. Skilled
decision making generally involves identification and integration of complex
trade-offs, risks, rewards, etc., in the context of deeply held personal values
and responsibilities. In addition to mathematical competency, skilled and
informed decision making rely on (1) heuristic deliberation and representative
understanding (e.g., Skilled Decision Theory; Cokely et al., 2012; 2018;
Gigerenzer et al., 1999; 2012); (2) integrated emotional and analytic thinking
(e.g., precise affect; Peters et al., 2006); and (3) meaningful intuition (e.g.,
fuzzy-gist representation; Reyna et al., 2009). Risk literacy promotes skilled
and informed decision making by helping people understand and evaluate risk and
reward.

> In July of 1654 Blaise Pascal began corresponding with Pierre de Fermat about
> the division of stakes in a game of chance (i.e., gambling), and how best to
> formally interpret risk and reward in this context (i.e., “Problem of
> Points”). Although this was not the first attempt to systematize chance, these
> exchanges became the founding documents of mathematical probability theory,
> which is at the heart of modern science and risk analysis.

> The word “risk” has many uses (e.g., exposure to danger and loss; variability
> in probability distributions; the effect of uncertainty on objectives). Since
> 1921 the psychology of economic decision making and risk has been formally
> connected to probabilistic and quantitative thinking.

> “The great body of physical science, a great deal of the essential fact of
> financial science, and endless social and political problems are only
> accessible and only thinkable to those who have had a sound training in
> mathematical analysis, and the time may not be very remote when it will be
> understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the
> great complex world-wide States that are now developing, it is as necessary to
> be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now
> to be able to read and write.” - Mankind in the Making, H.G. Wells (p. 204,
> 1903)

Mission: Advance and promote the Science for Informed Decision Making with
inclusive outreach and user-friendly technology and education. RiskLiteracy.org
is a non-profit university-based international science for society virtual
collaboration. Our website features the Berlin Numeracy Test offering
personalized feedback about one’s ability to understand and respond to risks
compared to educated people from around the world. Initially developed and
validated at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, the Berlin Numeracy
Test is one of the world’s most efficient predictors of skilled decision making
and risk literacy. The Berlin Numeracy Test was created to help increase public
awareness and to improve research conducted with diverse cultures and samples
(e.g., computer literate adults; educated people from the US, Europe, and Asia;
highly educated medical, legal, and financial professionals). Because some test
formats are internet-based and available in multiple languages data can be
collected and analyzed by nearly any internet-ready device (e.g., smart phones;
computers), providing immediate and personalized feedback. RiskLiteracy.org can
be used by individuals who want to learn more about their abilities and
limitations or it can be used by researchers who want to learn about, connect
with, and contribute to informed decision making science and outreach.

About This Website: RiskLiteracy.org is a nonprofit university-based project
designed to help increase awareness about risk literacy (i.e., the ability to
understand, evaluate, and make good decisions about risk). The site features the
Berlin Numeracy Test and other interactive content, offering automated scoring
and personalized feedback and training. Since 2012, 100,000+ people from more
than 150 countries have taken the Berlin Numeracy Test at RiskLiteracy.org.

Project Management and Development: Riskliteracy.org functions as a virtual
collaborative research network with a Board of Directors (i.e., Dr. Jinan Allan,
Dr. Edward Cokely, Dr. Adam Feltz, Dr. Saima Ghazal, and Dr. Rocio
Garcia-Retamero) in consultation with affiliated scientists and community
partners. The RiskLiteracy.org project was initiated at the Max Planck Institute
for Human Development in 2007 under the direction of Dr. Edward Cokely, Dr.
Mirta Galesic, Dr. Adam Feltz, and Dr. Rocio Garcia-Retamero, with support from
Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer and the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition. Website
management and daily technical operations are provided by the board and members
of their research labs. For questions, connections, and a list of affiliated
researchers please see the People link. If you have ideas about how you can
contribute to the project we encourage you to contact our managing director or
any member of the board.

Risk Literacy Training: We are currently developing several interactive
tutorials to help people explore and avoid some common risky decision making
errors. As soon as tutorials are available we will add them to this page. Please
check back every 3-6 months for new tutorials.


FOR RESEARCHERS

Use the Berlin Numeracy Test

The Berlin Numeracy Tests are fast user-friendly psychometric assessment
technologies (e.g., measurement instruments), validated for use with educated
samples from diverse countries and cultures (e.g., college students,
computer-literate adults, physicians). The simplest Berlin Numeracy Test is a
traditional 4 question paper and pencil test that takes < 4 minutes to complete.
The computer adaptive version of the Berlin Numeracy Test takes about 2 minutes
to complete because it only requires 2-3 questions that are selected based on
participant performance. If a test-taker answers the first question right or
wrong then a harder or easier question is automatically presented. We have also
validated multiple choice formats, parallel forms, extensive full-scale and
sub-scale tests (e.g., numeracy for certainty v. uncertainty), as well as very
fast single-item tests for use with general community or highly-educated samples
(i.e., median-split). All test formats are designed to address psychometric
limitations of other numeracy and skilled decision making tests (e.g., negative
skew, construct validity). A growing body of research indicates that the Berlin
Numeracy Test tends to be the most efficient stand-alone assessment of numeracy,
risk literacy, and general decision making skill currently available, more than
doubling the predictive power of much longer numeracy and cognitive ability
tests (e.g., intelligence, cognitive reflection, working memory; Cokely et al.,
2012). We’ve also validated simple systems to combine our tests with other
instruments for more extensive analyses, which can be valuable when working
sub-samples like less-numerate patient groups. To select the best test format
for your needs please see the different versions of the BNT available If you are
unsure what version you should use, please use our Test Recommendation Tool

If you would like help building the Computer Adaptive Berlin Numeracy Test,
please contact us. We can provide a Qualtrics link to an individualized survey.

Test Validation

Cokely, E.T., Galesic, M., Schulz, E., Ghazal, S., & Garcia-Retamero, R. (2012).
Measuring risk literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test. Judgment and Decision Making,
7, 25-47. Available Here

Description: A 1-4 item (ca. 3 minute) test of statistical numeracy and risk
literacy that is well-suited for use with moderate-to-highly numerate
individuals from diverse industrialized countries (e.g., college students,
computer literate adults, physicians). Scores from the 3 item Schwartz et al.
(1997) test can be added to the Berlin Numeracy Test for a 5 minute assessment
that provides additional discriminability at lower levels of numeracy (i.e., the
BNT-S).

In 21 studies (n=5336) we found robust psychometric discriminability across 15
countries (e.g., Germany, Pakistan, Japan, USA) and diverse samples (e.g.,
medical professionals, general populations, Mechanical Turk). Analyses
demonstrated desirable patterns of convergent validity (e.g., cognitive
ability), discriminant validity (e.g., personality, motivation), and criterion
validity (e.g., numerical and non-numerical questions about risk). The Berlin
Numeracy Test was found to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of
everyday risks (e.g., evaluating claims about products and treatments;
interpreting forecasts), doubling the predictive power of other numeracy
instruments and accounting for unique variance beyond other cognitive tests
(e.g., cognitive reflection, working memory, intelligence).


RISK LITERACY TRAINING

Graph Literacy Training

The ability to understand and evaluate graphical representations (i.e., graph
literacy) can help people make informed decisions. This lecture-based graph
training is designed to be suitable for classroom use and takes about 30 minutes
to complete. Please feel free to download and use the materials for your class
or for yourselves. Video demonstrations for the training are also available.

Learn More Here!


MEET THE TEAM


BOARD OF DIRECTORS


JINAN N. ALLAN


MANAGING DIRECTOR & LEAD SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMER, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CLEMSON
UNIVERSITY

 * 
 * 
 * 


ADAM FELTZ


ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY, CENTER FOR APPLIED SOCIAL RESEARCH &
DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY, UNIVERISTY OF OKLAHOMA

 * 
 * 


EDWARD T. COKELY


PRESIDENTIAL RESEARCH PROFESSOR & PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF
OKLAHOMA

 * 
 * 
 * 


ROCIO GARCIA-RETAMERO


PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY, LEARNING & EMOTIONS GROUP, DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY,
UNIVERSITY OF GRANADA

 * 
 * 


SAIMA GHAZAL


PROFESSOR OF APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF THE PUNJAB

 * 
 * 


TECHNICAL QUESTIONS & SUPPORT


JINAN N. ALLAN


MANAGING DIRECTOR & LEAD SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMER, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, CLEMSON
UNIVERSITY

 * 
 * 
 * 


JINHYO CHO


GRADUATE RESEARCHER & SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMER, UNIVERISTY OF OKLAHOMA

 * 


ASSOCIATED SCIENTISTS & PARTNERS

Dr. Wandi Bruine de Bruin, Ph.D. Provost Professor of Public Policy, Psychology,
and Behavioral Science, University of Southern California

Dr. Katrina Ellis, Ph.D. Saginaw Valley State University, Florida Tech Online,
Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy Florida

Dr. Mirta Galesic, Ph.D. Professor and Cowan Chair of Social Dynamics, Santa Fe
Institute, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy New Mexico

Prof. Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer, Ph.D. Director, Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max
Planck Institute for Human Development

Dr. Robert M. Hamm, Ph.D. Professor of Family and Preventive Medicine Director,
Clinical Decision Making Program, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center

Dr. Ulrich Hoffrage, Ph.D. University of Lausanne, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy Switzerland

Dr. Jonathan Huck, Ph.D. WGU Labs

Dr. Hank Jenkins-Smith, Ph.D. George Lynn Cross Research Professor of Political
Science Director, Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, University
of Oklahoma

Dr. Niklas Keller, Ph.D. Simply Rational GmbH, The Decision Institute

Dr. Astrid Kause, Ph.D. Institute for Sustainability Education and Psychology,
Leuphana University

Dr. Takashi Kusumi, Ph.D. Kyoto University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Japan

Dr. Marcus Lindskog, Ph.D. Uppsala University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Sweden

Dr. Brittany Nelson, Ph.D. Emory University

Dr. Yasmina Okan, Ph.D. Department of Communication at Pompeu Fabra University,
Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy England

Dr. Dafina Petrova, Ph.D. CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP) &
Biomedical Research Institute ibs.GRANADA, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Romania, Spain, and the Netherlands

Dr. Erich Petushek, Ph.D. Michigan Techological University, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy Norway

Dr. Paul Price, Ph.D. California State University, Fresno, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy California

Dr. Michael Prietula, Ph.D. Emory University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Georgia

Dr. Jing Qian, Ph.D. Tsinghua University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy China

Dr. Nenad Radakovic, Ph.D. College of Charleston, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy South Carolina

Dr. Madhuri Ramasubramanian, Ph.D University of Michigan Center for Bioethics
and Social Sciences in Medicine

Dr. Matthew Rhodes, Ph.D. Colorado State University, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy Colorado

Dr. Andrew Smith, Ph.D. Appalachian State University, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy North Carolina

Dr. Joel Suss, Ph.D. Rheinmetall Defence Australia, Lead Affiliate for
RiskLiteracy Australia

Dr. Barnabás Szászi, Ph.D. ELTE University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Hungary

Dr. Helena Szrek, Ph.D. University of Porto, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Portugal & South Africa

Dr. Brian Taylor, Ph.D. Ulster University, Lead Affiliate RiskLiteracy Ireland

Dr. Jakub Traczyk, Ph.D. SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Lead
Affiliate for RiskLiteracy Poland

Dr. Danielle Timmermans, Ph.D. Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Lead
Affiliate for RiskLiteracy for the Netherlands

Dr. Vincent Ybarra, Ph.D The MITRE Corporation, Lead for Graph Literacy Training
Program

Dr. Carissa A. Zimmerman, Ph.D. Rice University, Lead Affiliate for RiskLiteracy
Texas


CURRENT GRADUATE STUDENTS

Jinhyo Cho, MS, ABD - Scientific Programmer for RiskLiteracy.org. Research
Interests: Numeracy, Knowledge, Training

Olivia Perrin, MS - Research Interests: Psychometrics, Decision Making, Stress
and Resilience

Long Nguyen, MS - Research Interests: Risk Perception, Medical Decision Making


SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

Measuring Feelings About Choices and Risks: The Berlin Emotional Responses to
Risk Instrument (BERRI)
Dafina Petrova, Edward Cokely, Agata Sobkow, Jakub Traczyk, Dunia Garrido, Rocio
Garcia-Retamero
PDF DOI
Skilled Decision Theory: From Intelligence to Numeracy and Expertise
Edward Cokely, Adam Feltz, Saima Ghazal, Jinan Allan, Dafina Petrova, Rocio
Garcia-Retamero
PDF DOI
Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy: A Systematic Review of Health
Research and Evidence-Based Design Heuristics
Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Edward Cokely
PDF DOI
Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test
Edward Cokely, Mirta Galesic, Eric Schulz, Saima Ghazal, Rocio Garcia-Retamero
PDF DOI


ADDITIONAL PUBLICATIONS

Test Validation References:

Cokely, E.T., Ghazal, S., Galesic, M., Garcia-Retamero, R., & Schulz, E. (2013).
How to measure risk comprehension in educated samples. In R. Garcia-Retamero &
M. Galesic (Ed.), Transparent communication of risks about health: Overcoming
cultural differences (pp. 29-52). New York: Springer.

Cokely, E.T., Ghazal, S., & Garcia-Retamero, R. (2014). Measuring numeracy. In
B. L. Anderson & J. Schulkin (Eds.), Numerical Reasoning in Judgments and
Decision Making about Health. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Garcia-Retamero, R., & Cokely, E.T. (2013). Communicating health risks with
visual aids. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 22, 392-399.

Garcia-Retamero, R., Wicki, B., Cokely, E.T., & Hanson, B. (2014). Factors
predicting surgeons’ preferred and actual roles in interactions with their
patients. Health Psychology.

Ghazal, S., Cokely, E.T., & Garcia-Retamero (2014). Predicting biases in very
highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition. Judgment and Decision
Making, 9, 15-34.

Find papers citing the Berlin Numeracy Test at Google Scholar Citations

Additional Resources:

Appelt, K. C., Milch, K. F., Handgraaf, M. J. J., & Weber, E. U. (2011). The
Decision Making Individual Differences Inventory and guidelines for the study of
individual differences in judgment and decision-making research. Judgment and
Decision Making, 6, 252-262. Description: An online database of psychometric
instruments and inventories used in the decision sciences.
http://www.sjdm.org/dmidi

Blais, A. R., & Weber, E. U. (2006). A Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT)
scale for adult populations. Judgment and Decision Making, 1(1), 33-47.
Description: The updated, brief version of DOSPERT was designed to more quickly
assess risk preferences through self-report in five domains.

Cokely, E.T., & Kelley, C.M. (2009). Cognitive abilities and superior decision
making under risk: A protocol analysis and process model evaluation. Judgment
and Decision Making, 4, 20-33. http://journal.sjdm.org/81125/jdm81125.pdf

Fagerlin, A., Zikmund-Fisher, B., Ubel, P., Jankovic, A., Derry, H., & Smith, D.
(2007). Measuring numeracy without a math test: Development of the subjective
numeracy scale. Medical Decision Making, 27, 672–680. Description: A short
instrument for collecting subjective numeracy self-estimates that is well suited
for differentiating among low-to-moderately numerate individuals.

Galesic, M., y García-Retamero, R. (2011b). Graph literacy: A cross-cultural
comparison. Medical Decision Making, 31, 444-457. Description: A brief test that
measures individual differences in Graph Literacy.

Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you.
New York: Simon & Schuster.

Gigerenzer, G. (2012). Risk literacy. In J. Brockman (Ed.), This will make you
smarter: New scientific concepts to improve your thinking (pp. 259-261). New
York: Harper Perennial.

Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milcke, E., Schwartz, L. M., & Woloshin, S.
(2007). Helping doctors and patients to make sense of health statistics.
Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8, 53–96.

Kutner, M., Greenberg, E., Jin, Y., Boyle, B., Hsu, Y., & Dunleavy, E. (2007).
Literacy in everyday life: Results from the 2003 National Assessment of Adult
Literacy (NAAL). National Center for Education Statistics. Institute of
Education Sciences. Retrieved from http://nces.ed.gov/naal

Lindskog, M., Kerimi, N., Winman A. & Juslin, P. (2015). A Swedish validation of
the Berlin Numeracy Test. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology.

Lipkus, I. M., & Peters, E. (2009). Understanding the role of numeracy in
health: Proposed theoretical framework and practical insights. Health Education
and Behavior, 36(6), 1065-1081.

Lipkus, I. M., Samsa, G., & Rimer, B. K. (2001). General performance on a
numeracy scale among highly-educated samples. Medical Decision Making, 21,
37-44. Description: 11 item test (5-10 minutes) that measures statistical
numeracy and is suited for use with low-to-moderately numerate individuals.

Peters, E. (2012). Beyond comprehension: The role of numeracy in judgments and
decisions. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 21(1), 31-35.

Peters, E., Västfjäll, D., Slovic, P., Mertz, C. K., Mazzocco, K., & Dickert, S.
(2006). Numeracy and decision making. Psychological Science, 17(5), 407-413.

Reyna, V. F., Nelson, W. L., Han, P. K., & Dieckmann, N. F. (2009). How numeracy
influences risk comprehension and medical decision making. Psychological
Bulletin, 135, 943-973.

Shapira, M. M., Walker C. M., Cappaert, K. J., Ganschow, P. S., Fletcher, K. E.,
McGinley, E. L., Del Pozo, S., … Jacobs, E. A. (2012). The Numeracy Understand
in Medicine Instrument (NUMi): A measure of health numeracy developed using Item
Response Theory. Medical Decision Making, 32, 851-865.

Schwartz, L. M. L., Woloshin, S. S., Black, W. C. W., & Welch, H. G. H. (1997).
The role of numeracy in understanding the benefit of screening mammography.
Annals of Internal Medicine, 127, 966-972. Description: 3 item test (1-2
minutes) test that is well suited for use with low-to-moderately numerate
individuals.

Weber, E. U., Blais, A., & Betz, N. E. (2002). A domain-specific risk-attitude
scale: Measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors. Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making, 15(4), 263-290. Description: The DOSPERT was designed to assess
risk preferences through self-report in five domains.

Weller, J., Dieckmann, N. F., Tusler, M., Mertz, C. K., Burns, W., & Peters, E.
(2013). Development and testing of an abbreviated numeracy scale: A Rasch
Analysis approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 26(2),198-212.
Description: A Rasch test (est. 10 minutes) that combines items from various
tests (e.g., cognitive reflection test, Lipkus et al. 2011) and is designed for
use with the general US population. NOTE: One item on the scale was updated in
2013.


FUNDERS & SUPPORT

Special Thanks

We thank the members of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the
Max Planck Institute for Human Development, and of the Harding Center for Risk
Literacy, particularly Dr. Gerd Gigerenzer and Dr. Lael Schooler for crucial
initial and ongoing support. We offer special thanks to Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier
and to members of the National Institute for Risk and Resilience at OU for their
vision and commitment to transformative science that empowers and changes lives.
We offer special thanks to all our members, participants, collaborators, and our
associated scientists and partners for their continuing support, guidance, and
constructive feedback.

Grants and Financial Support We are grateful for generous support from:

 * The National Science Foundation (USA)
 * The Max Planck Society (Germany)
 * The Ministry of Science and Innovation (Spain)
 * The National Institute for Risk and Resilience
 * The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
 * The National Academy of Science
 * The John Templeton Foundation
 * Wisdom Research at the University of Chicago
 * Science of Virtues at the University of Chicago
 * Time Sharing Experiments in the Social Sciences
 * The State of Michigan and Michigan Technological University
 * The State of Oklahoma and University of Oklahoma
 * The University of Granada
 * WebMD

Many Thanks

We are indebted to the following researchers and the supporting institutions for
cross-cultural and other data collection/analysis: (alphabetical order)

 * Nicolai Bodemer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development
 * Siegfried Dewitte, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
 * Adam Feltz, Michigan Technological University
 * Robert Hamm, University of Oklahoma
 * William (Deak) Helton, University of Canterbury
 * Stefan Herzog, University of Basel
 * Marcus Lindskog, Uppsala University
 * Hitashi Lomash, Thepar University
 * Yasmina Okan, University of Granada
 * Robert Pastel, Michigan Technological University
 * Dafina Petrova, University of Granada
 * Jing Qian, Tsinghua University
 * Samantha Simon, Wayne State University
 * Helena Szrek, University of Porto
 * Masanori Takezawa, University of Tokyo
 * Karl Teigen, University of Oslo
 * Margo Woller-Carter, Michigan Technological University
 * Jan Woike, Universite de Lausanne
 * Tomek Wysocki, Wroclaw University


CONTACT

For inquiries or support using the Berlin Numeracy Test, please contact the
Managing Director, Jinan Allan.

 * jinana@clemson.edu

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