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Research (Insikt)


CONVERGING NARRATIVES ON HAWAII WILDFIRES ADVANCE DIFFERENT INFLUENCERS’
OBJECTIVES

Posted: 30th August 2023
By: Insikt Group


Foreign and domestic influence actors are capitalizing on the Hawaii wildfires
to advance their own objectives. Russian and Chinese actors are leveraging
shared narratives, asserting that the US prioritizes military spending over
citizens' welfare, almost certainly aiming to curtail US defense expenditure in
relation to Ukraine and Taiwan, potentially affecting the 2024 US elections.
Influence actors are also engaging in disinformation campaigns suggesting that
the US government caused the wildfires using weather or energy weapons, with a
possible feedback loop between Chinese state-sponsored and domestic violent
extremist (DVE) influence operations.

Russian state-funded media is amplifying genuine US domestic concerns about the
wildfire response, emphasizing parallels between US aid to Ukraine and
assistance during the Hawaii wildfires, almost certainly to undermine support
for Ukraine and erode confidence in the Biden administration. A Chinese
government-aligned covert network is spreading disinformation attributing the
wildfires to a "weather weapon," while Chinese state media is accusing the US
government of valuing military spending over citizens' safety. These narratives
aim to provoke anger and domestic pressure to reduce defense expenditure.

RT article and social media post graphic boosting an opinion from former Rep.
Ron Paul, arguing that “Ukraine matters to Biden more than Hawaii” (Source: RT)

US DVEs are promoting disinformation that the US government deliberately ignited
the wildfires using a directed energy weapon, with some DVEs weaving in
anti-Semitic conspiracy theories regarding plans to acquire and sell land. These
narratives very likely intend to undermine government emergency responses,
propagate anti-government sentiment, and advance anti-Semitic ideologies.

Post with purported evidence of a directed energy weapon attack on Maui from a
source linked to the DVE conspiracy movement qAnon (Source: Telegram)

The proliferation of disinformation highlights influence actors' opportunism and
speed in shaping the information landscape. Counter-influence strategies,
awareness campaigns, and psychological impact consideration are advised to
mitigate the influence of these narratives. The convergence of influence
narratives, intended to influence defense spending, aid policies, and election
outcomes, is very likely to escalate in the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential
elections.

Beyond political manipulation, exploiting natural disasters risks eroding trust
in disaster relief efforts and agencies like FEMA. Effective strategic
communications, preemptive identification of emerging narratives, and reliance
on credible scientific and fact-checking institutions are crucial during such
events.

To read the entire analysis with endnotes, click here to download the report as
a PDF.



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