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Home » FAO: Global grains output revised lower


FAO: GLOBAL GRAINS OUTPUT REVISED LOWER


Credit: ©ALFRIBEIRO - STOCK.ADOBE.COM
12.09.2024
By Arvin Donley


ROME, ITALY — A slight reduction in global grains production is expected in
2024-25 due to downward revisions in corn and wheat outturn, according to the
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. In its latest
monthly forecast, released on Dec. 6, the FAO projected global grains output to
fall by 0.6% year on year to 2.841 billion tonnes, which still would be the
second largest ever.

The FAO pegged global corn production at 1.217 billion tonnes, slightly lower
than its forecast in October and about 2% below last year’s total. The decline
primarily is driven by lower-than-expected yields in the European Union and the
United States, the Rome-based organization said.



Global wheat output also was revised lower in November to 789 million tonnes,
which would equal the 2023-24 outturn.

“The bulk of the month-on-month decrease is linked to a lower wheat estimate in
the European Union, where overly wet conditions curbed yields in parts,” the FAO
said.

Rice output was virtually unchanged from the October report and is projected to
increase by 0.8% from the previous year to a record 538.8 million tonnes (milled
basis), the FAO said.

Global grains consumption will continue its uptick in 2024-25, according to the
FAO, rising by 1.8 million tonnes month on month to 2.859 billion tonnes, which
would be 0.6% higher than the previous year. Sparking the monthly increase was
an upward revision of 1.2 million tonnes in coarse grains utilization.

“The upward revision stems from fractionally higher feed use, mostly sorghum,
and industrial use of (corn),” the FAO said.

The FAO also raised its rice utilization estimate for 2024-25 by 900,000 tonnes
in November, “largely reflecting prospects for more pronounced use expansions in
Asia.” As a result, global rice utilization is forecast to reach 536.7 million
tonnes, which would represent a 2% increase from 2023-24 and an all-time high.

In a significant revision from October, the FAO forecasts that global grains
stocks will decline by 0.7% from their opening levels, resulting in a global
cereal stock-to-use ratio of 30.1% for 2024-25, down from 30.8% in the previous
year but still indicating “a comfortable supply level” globally.

International grains trade in 2024-25 is forecast at 484 million tonnes, down
4.6% from the previous year. Global wheat and maize trade volumes are expected
to decline, while rice trade is seen increasing.

Looking ahead to the next crop season, the FAO said softer wheat prices may
discourage area expansions of the winter wheat crop underway in the Northern
Hemisphere.

“Below-normal rainfall in key wheat growing regions in the Russian Federation
has led to low soil moisture levels, affecting planting operations,” the FAO
said. “By contrast, favorable soil moisture and government support policies,
along with remunerative prices, should spur expanded plantings in China and
India.”

The noted that early indications suggest a contraction in corn sowings in
Argentina due to dry conditions and the risk of stunt disease transmitted by
leafhoppers. In Brazil, early planting intentions, encouraged by a return of
rainfall, point to the same corn area for the 2025 crop.

Trends Associations/Agencies FAO Commodities corn rice sorghum soy soybean wheat
Trade


 * RELATED ARTICLES
   
   
   IGC: GLOBAL GRAINS OUTPUT REVISED LOWER
   
   
   GLOBAL FLOUR TRADE REVISED LOWER
   
   
   IGC: GLOBAL GRAIN OUTPUT, ENDING STOCKS REVISED HIGHER
   
   
   INDIA’S WHEAT OUTPUT, ENDING STOCKS REVISED LOWER
   
   
   EU 2020 CROP OUTPUT REVISED LOWER BY COCERAL

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