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"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

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TUESDAY, MARCH 01, 2022


CASING THE BID THIEVES


Ja Morant's Murray State were bid thieves in 2019




Photo by Sam Owens | Courier & Press




Conference Tournaments begin this week, which means everyone is on the lookout
for bid thieves. For bubble teams, bid thieves are their worst nightmare because
it means the number of at-large teams in the field effectively shrinks. For
bracketologists, bid thieves make the job much easier, especially when the bid
thief is someone on the bubble, because you know for certain that team will be
in the field and it's one less resume you have to critically review for
inclusion..

We're going to look at the three leagues whose conference tournaments start this
week and could have potential bid thieves that complicate matters for at-large
teams. While the bubble teams are the easiest ones to point to, we are focusing
on potential bid thieves that are not on the bubble and would really upset the
apple cart if they cut down nets. The teams selected are ones that are most
likely able to reach a final, because once you get there, teams like Georgetown
and Oregon State showed last year that anything can happen.


WCC: Santa Clara

Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and San Francisco are all in good shape to earn at-large
bids. While BYU is hoping to sneak in, the team to watch as a potential bid
thief here is Santa Clara. They will be heavy favorites in their opener, having
beat possible opponents San Diego, Pepperdine, and Portland all by double-digits
within the past month. They also split the season series with semifinal opponent
St. Mary's, so making a final is very realistic.


Ohio Valley: Morehead State

Murray State will be dancing, and while the popular pick here will be Belmont, I
don't see it. Instead, Morehead is the pick. They get a first round bye and
swept their potential opening opponents, Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech, by an
average of 14.3 ppg. They would then face Belmont but have won three of the last
four against the Bruins with the only loss coming on the road by 1 point. If
they get to the Final against Murray State, they led the Racers 49-40 with about
5 minutes to play before falling apart down the stretch, so they've shown they
can play with the league's best. The defending OVC champs have the goods to
repeat.


Missouri Valley: Missouri State

While we have Loyola Chicago in the field as the highest ranked NET team in the
Valley, I think they would be left out if they don't win Arch Madness. Since the
resume metrics were added to the team sheet, no team with a resume average below
52.5 has earned at at-large bid and the Ramblers currently sit at 57 with only
one win over a team projected to be in the field. But if a non-Loyola team wins
the tournament and puts Loyola into that at-large mix, the one likely to do it
is Missouri State. The Bears are on the easier side of the bracket as they went
8-0 against the four teams they would have to play to reach the final. They also
notched a win over Loyola in the regular season, so there's no reason to think
they can't do that again.

Next week, we will look at the potential bid thieves from the remaining
conference tournaments. For now, we'll continue on with the S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-Kansas 4-ARIZONA


2-Seeds: 8-PURDUE 7-DUKE 6-Auburn 7-KENTUCKY


3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Tennessee 11-Texas Tech 12-Wisconsin


4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Illinois


5-Seeds: 17-Arkansas 18-Alabama 19-HOUSTON 20-Texas


6-Seeds: 24-Usc 23-Ohio State 22-Lsu 21-St. Mary's


7-Seeds: 25-Michigan State 26-Seton Hall 27-Iowa State 28-Marquette


8-Seeds: 32-MURRAY STATE 31-Boise State 30-Colorado State 29-Iowa


9-Seeds: 33-SAN DIEGO STATE 34-San Francisco 35-Tcu 36-Xavier


10-Seeds: 40-Vcu 39-DAVIDSON 38-Wyoming 37-Creighton


11-Seeds: 41-Notre Dame 42-Miami 43-North Carolina 44-Michigan 45-Smu


12-Seeds: 50-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-Byu
46-Memphis


13-Seeds: 51-IONA 52-CHATTANOOGA 53-TOWSON 54-VERMONT


14-Seeds: 58-UC IRVINE 57-PRINCETON 56-NEW MEXICO STATE 55-TOLEDO


15-Seeds: 59-TEXAS STATE 60-LIBERTY 61-WAGNER 62-MONTANA STATE


16-Seeds: 68-SOUTHERN 67-NICHOLLS 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-OAKLAND 64-LONGWOOD
63-COLGATE





Last Four Byes: VCU, Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina


Last Four In: SMU, Michigan, Memphis, BYU

First Four Out: Wake Forest, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Florida

Next Four Out: Rutgers, Oregon, Dayton, Oklahoma




Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7


Big 10: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 4

MWC: 4


WCC: 4

American: 3

Pac-12: 3

Atlantic-10: 2






Written by Alan Bykowski at 11:54 AM 0 comments  






MONDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2022


NMD WAS A SUCCESS, NOW ON TO #DLTD WEEK



Welcome back #mubb, we hope you enjoyed National Marquette Day! We are back to
talk about the game against Butler and any conclusions that we can draw from
such a game. We then turn to the week ahead which features a frisky DePaul team
and a St Johns match up that will be frenetic at worst. We close out the pod
looking ahead to BET and Selection Sunday. Enjoy!
https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/5rsf4e/ScrambledEggs_Editted_022722.mp3



Written by Phil Bush at 9:08 AM 0 comments  






THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2022


SQUISHY BUBBLES




Kyle Lofton looks to help St. Bonaventure shoot their way back to the bubble
 Photo from St. Bonaventure Athletics




The back and forth of the bubble this season has been wild. Marquette is
fortunately not in the bubble mix currently and, despite fan worries, I'm not
worried about them falling into that scrum. Marquette's 7 Quadrant 1 wins are
more than double that of anyone on the bubble except Rutgers (5) and Kansas
State (4). Marquette's resume average of 30 is also better than anyone in that
area and is a better determinant of selection than the other metrics. While
recent form hasn't been great, this is still a team comfortably in the field as
a single-digit seed and closer to a protected seed than a trip to Dayton.

So what are some of the factors we are looking at when it comes to the bubble
and Selection? Let's take a look at a few of the big factors the Selection
Committee has looked at in the past to help determine who will be in and out
come Selection Sunday.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: When it comes to the field as a whole,
teams can make it in with a weak NCSOS. USC has a sub-300 NCSOS this year but
appears to be comfortably in, but it's different when it comes to teams on the
bubble. 2019 NC State is the best example of this and the reason why teams like
Indiana (NCSOS 318) and Wake Forest (NCSOS 334) are on the outside of today's
S-Curve. When you don't have many wins over the field and your resume is built
heavily on Q4 non-conference wins, the Selection Committee doesn't like putting
those teams in.

Resume Average: While everyone is focused on the NET and the predictive metrics
like kenpom and Sagarin, no team has ever made the field with a Resume average
(KPI and Strength of Record) worse than 52.5. In our current field, the lowest
Resume average we have in is Memphis at 53, but this is a danger sign,
particularly for teams like Florida and Oregon who have a Resume average at 60
or worse. Rutgers, Indiana, Dayton, and Oklahoma are other teams popping up in
the Bracket Matrix that are below the 52.5 barrier and might be in more trouble
than bracketologists think.

Win/Loss Gap: While Michigan State got in with a 15-12 record last year, that +3
difference between wins and losses was the lowest in quite awhile and that was
likely only because of the COVID shortened season. It's rare for teams to get in
without at least 18 wins and a gap of +5 between wins and losses. There are a
number of teams this would impact, but particularly the Big 12 bubble teams like
Kansas State (14-13), Oklahoma (14-14), and West Virginia (14-14). They have
great top end wins, but the record disparity really hurts them. It's a big
reason why I have long thought 6 bids for the Big 12 was more likely than the 8
some were predicting. The teams that have been most rewarded in that league are
teams like Iowa State and TCU that are still trending towards bids even though
they are likely to go 7-11 or worse in league play, just like the three
mentioned above.

Big Wins Offset Bad Losses: Teams like Rutgers and Dayton have 3+ losses out of
Quadrants 1+2, but teams like 2021 Colorado and 2019 Arizona State and Baylor
proved you can get in with some bad blemishes on the resume. I'm hesitant with
Dayton considering their losses are all in Quadrant 4, but the Kansas win for
the Flyers and the Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin wins for Rutgers are enough
that those teams shouldn't be ruled out strictly because of the losses.

Net Bottom Line: 2019 St. John's at 73 and 2021 Wichita State at 72 are the two
lowest teams in the NET to get into the field. That doesn't bode well for
Rutgers (83) and St. Bonaventure (84) who we have just outside the field. That
said, if either team can get some big margin wins that move those numbers, they
could find themselves on the right side of the bubble.

Let's look at the full S-Curve:


1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-KANSAS 4-Auburn


2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 5-Baylor


3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech 10-VILLANOVA 11-Tennessee 12-Illinois


4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Wisconsin


5-Seeds: 17-Texas 18-HOUSTON 19-Alabama 20-Ohio State


6-Seeds: 24-Lsu 23-St. Mary's 22-Usc 21-Arkansas


7-Seeds: 25-Marquette 26-Boise State 27-Michigan State 28-Iowa State


8-Seeds: 32-San Francisco 31-Iowa 30-Seton Hall 29-COLORADO STATE


9-Seeds: 33-Xavier 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Miami 36-Creighton


10-Seeds: 40-Michigan 39-San Diego State 38-Tcu 37-Wyoming


11-Seeds: 41-Notre Dame 42-Smu 43-North Carolina 44-Vcu 45-Byu 46-Memphis


12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAVIDSON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO


13-Seeds: 51-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 52-CHATTANOOGA 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-VERMONT


14-Seeds: 58-PRINCETON 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-TOLEDO


15-Seeds: 59-UC IRVINE 60-TEXAS STATE 61-LIBERTY 62-MONTANA STATE


16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-COLGATE
63-OAKLAND


 

Last Four Byes: San Diego State, Michigan, Notre Dame, SMU


Last Four In: North Carolina, VCU, BYU, Memphis


First Four Out: Florida, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Wake Forest


Next Four Out: Indiana, Belmont, Oregon, Dayton





Written by Alan Bykowski at 3:48 PM 0 comments  






WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2022


THE LEGS ARE WOBBLY AND WE ANSWER SCRAMBLED QUESTIONS



Marquette went 1-1 this past week but it doesn't feel quite that good. So we're
here to talk about the #mubb week that was and the mixed bag of results against
Georgetown and Creighton. We then pivot to your questions and answer most of
them seriously. We close out the pod with National Marquette Day game
predictions. Enjoy!
https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/48vcag/ScrambledEggs_Editted_022322.mp3



Written by Phil Bush at 3:44 PM 0 comments  






TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2022


LESSONS REVEALED


Drew Timme reminding everyone Gonzaga is #1
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images



The NCAA released their Top-16 seeds on Saturday to give us an "As It Stands"
snapshot of where they are so far. Cracked Sidewalks had 15 of the 16 teams
correct, with our #17 Texas edging our #16 LSU (more on the Tigers later). We
also had Duke and Villanova flipped between the 2/3 lines and Illinois and
Wisconsin flipped between our 3/4 lines. There are a number of lessons to be
learned from the Reveal. Let's break it down.

The 1-Seeds: We correctly predicted Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, and Kansas on the
1-line. There are three things of note here. First, Gonzaga did not have the
top-end wins of other teams, but their metric dominance pushed them to the top
of the field. However Auburn over Arizona and Kansas over Baylor and Kentucky
indicates resume is the tiebreaker when it's close. Further down the bracket,
that likely bodes well for teams like Iowa and San Diego State with dominant
(compared to the bubble) metrics and teams like Creighton and Rutgers (great
top-line wins) when it comes to those final spots.

Numbers Alone Aren't Enough: Houston had the highest ever NCAA metric to be left
out of the Top-16. While we expected that, it could send a message to teams like
North Carolina and Wake Forest that quality metrics without wins over the field
won't get you the benefit of the doubt.


Head-to-Head: In the past, head to head has not been considered a major factor.
However this time we did hear mention of Illinois' win over Wisconsin and UCLA's
common opponent record compared to Providence. These seem to be only used as
tiebreakers when teams are evaluated closely, but on the bubble teams like
Oklahoma and BYU that have a number of wins over other bubble competitors could
be the difference maker.

Injuries (don't) Matter: Injuries to Illinois stars were mentioned, but I don't
buy that as the reason Illinois made the 3-line as much as the head-to-head
mentioned above. Why? LSU, which was the only team we had in the Reveal that
wasn't in (our #17, Texas, trumped LSU) also wasn't even mentioned as one of the
teams close to the protected seeds. Entering the Reveal with Xavier Pinson
playing 20+ minutes, LSU was 17-1 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee and
their only loss to Auburn. When he wasn't fully healthy, they were 2-6. Their
record was still close enough to warrant a 5/6 seed without him, but that they
weren't even mentioned seems to bode ill for teams like VCU or Florida that
might be hoping for a bad stretch without a star player to be viewed more
favorably by the Selection Committee.

Using the Top-16 as a reset, here's our updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 6-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Texas 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Wisconsin

5-Seeds: 17-HOUSTON 18-Alabama 19-Connecticut 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-St. Mary's 23-Arkansas 22-Lsu 21-Usc


7-Seeds: 25-Michigan State 26-Marquette 27-BOISE STATE 28-Iowa State

8-Seeds: 32-Xavier 31-Iowa 30-Seton Hall 29-San Francisco


9-Seeds: 33-Colorado State 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Wake Forest


10-Seeds: 40-Notre Dame 39-Creighton 38-Miami 37-Tcu


11-Seeds: 41-San Diego State 42-North Carolina 43-Smu 44-Michigan 45-Byu 46-Vcu


12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-DAVIDSON


13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO


14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT


15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE


16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-COLGATE
63-TEXAS STATE




Last Four Byes: Creighton, Notre Dame, San Diego State, North Carolina

Last Four In: SMU, Michigan, BYU, VCU

First Four Out: Memphis, Florida, Indiana, Rutgers

Next Four Out: Kansas State, Belmont, Oregon, Oklahoma




Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

A-10: 2






Written by Alan Bykowski at 11:35 AM 0 comments  






FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2022


PREDICTING THE TOP-16 REVEAL


Marquette was last included in the 2019 Top-16 Reveal
Screenshot from CBS Sports


This Saturday will bring the NCAA's official Top-16 Reveal. When even the
Selection Committee is doing bracketology, it means we're getting to the serious
part of the season. We decided to dig into the history of the Reveal, using all
of the data from the first five Reveals, including both NET and RPI data as both
were the relevant metrics of their time. First, here are the teams year by year,
in descending order from the Top Overall Seed at the Reveal to the 16th and
final Revealed team. The teams below the gap are teams that were ranked in the
Top-16 of the current metric at the time but were left out:


2021 Reveal NET 2020 Reveal NET 2019 Reveal NET 2018 Reveal RPI 2017 Reveal RPI
1 Gonzaga 2 Baylor 2 Duke 3 Virginia 1 Villanova 2 2 Baylor 1 Kansas 4 Tennessee
4 Villanova 2 Kansas 3 3 Michigan 3 Gonzaga 3 Virginia 1 Xavier 3 Baylor 1 4
Ohio State 7 San Diego State 1 Gonzaga 2 Purdue 9 Gonzaga 11 5 Illinois 4 Duke 6
Kentucky 5 Auburn 5 UNC 4 6 Villanova 9 Dayton 5 Michigan 6 Kansas 6 Florida
State 6 7 Alabama 10 Louisville 7 UNC 8 Duke 8 Louisville 5 8 Houston 5 West
Virginia 8 Michigan St 9 Cincinnati 11 Oregon 10 9 Virginia 6 Maryland 10 Purdue
11 Clemson 4 Arizona 9 10 West Virginia 17 Florida State 14 Kansas 18 Texas Tech
14 Virginia 14 11 Tennessee 11 Seton Hall 13 Houston 7 Michigan St 21 Florida 7
12 Oklahoma 20 Villanova 15 Marquette 21 UNC 13 Kentucky 12 13 Iowa 8 Auburn 16
Iowa State 13 Tennessee 10 Butler 8 14 Texas Tech 15 Oregon 19 Nevada 14 Ohio
State 22 West Virginia 36 15 Texas 21 Butler 11 Louisville 15 Arizona 15 UCLA 21
16 Missouri 34 Michigan St 12 Wisconsin 12 Oklahoma 19 Duke 17                  
      Colorado 12 Arizona 9 Virginia Tech 10 Rhode Island 7 Xavier 13   Loyola
Chi 13     Texas Tech 16 Nevada 12 Cincinnati 15   Colgate 14         Seton Hall
16 Creighton 16   USC 16                

Here are our key takeaways:


The Reveal Reinforces the Current Metric: The first thing that stands out is the
number of teams ranked in the top-16 of the RPI/NET that are also in the Top-16
Reveal. 67/80 (83.8%) teams in past reveals were in the top-16 of the current
metric. When you go outside the top-16, 78/80 (97.5%) were still in the top-22,
so it's rare for teams to show up below that ranking. In the instances teams
outside did show up, they were massive outliers in the closest alternate metric.
For RPI #36 West Virginia, given a 4-seed in 2017, they were ranked #3 in kenpom
at the time. For NET #34 Missouri, given a 4-seed in 2021, they were ranked #2
in RPI at the time. If you aren't in the top-22 of the current metric, you had
better be elite in the companion metric.

The Top Two Seeds Lines Are Top-11 Teams: This has happened without fail. There
have been a handful of double-digit teams to crack that top-8, but none lower
than 11th. Worth watching that NET as there are some outliers perceived to be
fighting for the 2-line. The Top-11 teams are also pretty safe when it comes to
inclusion. 52/55 (94.5%) teams ranked in the top-11 were included in the Reveal,
whereas just 15/25 (60%) of the teams from 12-16 were included. This calculus
played in when evaluating Villanova, Texas Tech, and Duke for the final 2-seed.


Only Elite Mid-Majors Need Apply: Only 10/80 (12.5%) teams from outside the
traditional Top-6 conferences have been included in the Reveal. 6/10 (66.7%)
were ranked in the top-5 of the current metric. The exceptions had immaculate
records, including 2017 Gonzaga (#11 in RPI, 25-0), 2018 Cincinnati (#11 in RPI,
22-2), 2019 Houston (#7 in NET, 22-1) and 2019 Nevada (#14 in NET, 22-1). If you
had 3+ losses outside the Top-6 leagues, you were left out. And obviously
Colgate in 2021, who was a COVID scheduling NET outlier.

Replacement Teams Are From Top-6 Leagues: There have been 13 teams from outside
the Top-16 of the current metric to be included and all of them came from one of
the traditional Top-6 leagues. Don't expect the Selection Committee to look to a
mid-major if they throw a curveball.

We have a little discussion on our selections for the Top-16 Reveal. In
accordance with past history, Gonzaga is the only team from outside the
traditional Top-6 leagues. 14/16 teams selected were also in the Top-16 of NET,
with the exceptions being #20 Wisconsin and #31 Providence. Here is commentary
on a line-by-line basis:

1-Seeds -- Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas: The first three seem clear. Gonzaga
is the top overall seed because despite the resume, their quality metrics are by
far the best in the field. Both Arizona and Auburn seem like obvious picks,
which left four teams for one spot. Kansas has the best average of Resume and
Metric rankings and leads the nation in Q1+2 wins, which allowed them to edge
out Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue for the final 1-seed.

2-Seeds -- Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova: The first three feel obvious and
would more likely show up on the top line than the line below. Villanova gets
the last 2-seed due to their #5 NET ranking and a better Resume+Metric Average
than any team below them.

3-Seeds -- Texas Tech, Duke, Tennessee, Wisconsin: Tech and Duke were considered
for the 2-line, but the metrics just didn't justify moving them up despite
excellent quality wins. Tennessee's win over Kentucky helped solidify their
selection here and while their Q1 isn't as good as some others, they have no
losses outside Q1A. Wisconsin was on our 4-line previously, but with their NET
moving up to 19 after the Indiana win, there is now precedent for them being
placed this high (2021 Oklahoma, 2019 Marquette, and 2018 Michigan State were
all ranked lower) and their 8 Q1 wins are second only to Baylor.

4-Seeds -- UCLA, Illinois, LSU, Providence: Both UCLA and Illinois seemed like
they had to be included. Both have the numbers and enough Q1 volume to warrant
inclusion without any truly bad losses. LSU does have a Q3 loss but we moved
them up because no one around them has a resume that is significantly better
enough without some serious blemishes. Providence sticks as the last team in.
While their NET ranking doesn't seem to warrant inclusion, their single digit
resume average is good enough that it seems likely they'll be included. PC fans
have long said their is no comparison to their resume, but I would point to 2017
West Virginia. While they had diametrically opposite resumes (WVU had monster
wins and narrow losses, PC has narrow wins and big losses), both excelled in the
metric that was not the NCAA's chosen of the day. On the team sheets, WVU had
the aforementioned kenpom rank of #3 while Providence has an average resume
metric of 8.5.


Also considered -- Alabama, Texas, Houston: The Selection Committee always
discusses a few teams that are just on the outside looking in. These three all
have pros and cons. Alabama has a brilliant top-end resume and SOS, but their
two Q3 losses and borderline metrics weren't good enough to put them in. Texas
has similar quality and is ranked #15 in the NET, but too much of their record
is puffed up by Q4 games. Houston has excellent numbers, but despite the #4 NET
(which would be the highest ever left out of the Reveal) they have zero Q1 wins,
zero wins over the field, and too many total losses to be included from outside
a power conference.


And last...Marquette: The Golden Eagles had a legitimate chance to get in this
discussion, but the loss to Butler and narrow win over Georgetown dropped their
NET from 24 to 32. Had they beat Butler and held their 26-point lead against the
Hoyas, they may have been able to get to the 4-line or at least been one of the
alternates considered, but instead they are heading in the other direction. For
now they hold on to our last 6-seed thanks to their Q1 wins, but it was a close
evaluation between them and St. Mary's (the Gaels' 2-6 Q1 record just wasn't
good enough). A win at Creighton so their Q1+2 record doesn't fall below .500
would be strongly advised.

Here's the entire S-Curve:


1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas


2-Seeds: 8-VILLANOVA 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 5-BAYLOR


3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech 10-DUKE 11-Tennessee 12-Wisconsin


4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Lsu 14-Illinois 13-Ucla


5-Seeds: 17-Alabama 18-Texas 19-HOUSTON 20-Ohio State


6-Seeds: 24-Marquette 23-Michigan State 22-Usc 21-Connecticut


7-Seeds: 25-St. Mary's 26-Arkansas 27-COLORADO STATE 28-Boise State


8-Seeds: 32-Seton Hall 31-San Francisco 30-Iowa State 29-Xavier


9-Seeds: 33-Miami 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Tcu

10-Seeds: 40-Memphis 39-Notre Dame 38-Wake Forest 37-Iowa


11-Seeds: 41-Davidson 42-Creighton 43-Byu 44-Michigan 45-Kansas State 46-San
Diego State


12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO


13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO


14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT


15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE


16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-SOUTH
ALABAMA


 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Memphis, Davidson, Creighton


Last Four In: Byu, Michigan, Kansas State, San Diego State


First Four Out: Indiana, North Carolina, SMU, Rutgers


Next Four Out:  VCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Belmont





Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4


WCC: 4


Pac-12: 3


American: 2

Atlantic-10: 2






Written by Alan Bykowski at 6:47 AM 0 comments  






TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2022


MARQUETTE'S QUADRANT BREAKDOWN


Marquette will try to avoid stepping on more rakes like the loss at Butler
 Image from The Simpsons | 20th Television


The bracket side of Cracked Sidewalks is preparing for a guest appearance on the
Delphi Bracketology podcast later tonight as well as the Top-16 Reveal, so
instead of digging deep into a topic, we'll talk a bit about Marquette's resume
by Quadrant, including what's left on the schedule before getting to the new
S-Curve. At this point, it's all about trying to not step on any more rakes.


Quadrant 1 (7-6), Remaining (1): at Creighton


Marquette is tied for third nationally in Quadrant 1 wins, behind only Baylor
(9) and Kansas (8). While the game at Creighton is the only Q1 opportunity left
on the schedule, the home game at Seton Hall could potentially move up to this
Quadrant as the Pirates are 34 in the NET and the home cut-off is 30. At the
other end, Providence could fall from Q1 to Q2 as the Friars sit exactly on the
Q1 cutline at 30. Regardless, this is a very strong number, particularly as 4 of
these wins are in the elite Q1A category.

Quadrant 2 (2-3), Remaining (1): at DePaul


The good news is that Marquette's two worst losses have moved up to this
Quadrant as Creighton and St. Bonaventure are currently in Q2B. The roadie at
DePaul is the only remaining Q2 game, though the Ole Miss win could move to this
category as the Rebels are at 108 with the neutral cut-off being 100. Creighton
is the game that seems most likely to fall out of this category, the Jays are 70
and the cutoff is 75.

Quadrant 3 (3-0), Remaining (2): vs Butler, vs St. John's

Marquette is solid here, with the only worry being a game from Q2 dropping to
this range. Win at home and hope nothing falls so the resume doesn't have any
bad losses.

Quadrant 4 (4-0), Remaining (1): vs Georgetown 

It's rare to play a Q4 game in Big East play, but here come the Hoyas. None of
Marquette's current Q4 games look likely to move up, and Georgetown certainly
doesn't seem to show any indications of improving by the 55 spots they would
need to reach Q3 territory. The positive in this quadrant is there are no
sub-300 games, which has helped give Marquette the #2 ranked Strength of
Schedule nationally, which factored into us placing them on the 6 line this
week.


1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-KENTUCKY


2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-BAYLOR 5-Kansas


3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Ucla


4-Seeds: 16-HOUSTON 15-Providence 14-Wisconsin 13-Illinois


5-Seeds: 17-Lsu 18-Alabama 19-Michigan St 20-Ohio St


6-Seeds: 24-Xavier 23-Marquette 22-Connecticut 21-Texas


7-Seeds: 25-Arkansas 26-St. Mary's 27-Usc 28-Colorado St


8-Seeds: 32-Iowa 31-Boise St 30-WYOMING 29-Seton Hall


9-Seeds: 33-Tcu 34-MURRAY ST 35-San Francisco 36-Wake Forest


10-Seeds: 40-North Carolina 39-Notre Dame 38-Miami 37-Iowa St


11-Seeds: 41-Indiana 42-Oklahoma 43-Creighton 44-Memphis 45-Byu 46-Oregon


12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO


13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA ST 53-TOLEDO 54-NEW MEXICO ST


14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT


15-Seeds: 59-LIBERTY 60-UC IRVINE 61-PRINCETON 62-MONTANA ST


16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS ST 67-SOUTHERN 66-GARDNER WEBB 65-NORFOLK ST 64-NAVY
63-SOUTH ALABAMA


 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma


Last Four In: Creighton, Memphis, BYU, Oregon


First Four Out: San Diego State, Kansas State, Davidson, Belmont


Next Four Out: Michigan, West Virginia, SMU, Rutgers

Also Considered: Florida, Mississippi St, Virginia Tech, VCU, St. Louis, UAB,
Virginia, Washington St, Texas A&M, Utah St, Santa Clara, Cincinnati









Written by Alan Bykowski at 1:14 PM 0 comments  





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