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World / Middle East


HEZBOLLAH MULLS RESPONSE AFTER LEADER’S KILLING – BUT ISRAEL’S NEXT STEPS MATTER
MOST

Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh, CNN
2 minute read
Updated 2:25 PM EDT, Sat September 28, 2024
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CNN  — 

After Hezbollah confirmed the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli
strike, what – if anything – can it do next?

The next 72 hours are likely to be full of Hezbollah’s remaining commanders
assessing who is left, how safe it is to communicate and meet, and exactly what
level of pain tolerance it retains as it tries to formulate a response.

What we don’t know is how much disruption has been done to the group’s rocket
inventory by the wave of Israeli airstrikes over the past two weeks.

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Israel appears to have very accurate information as to the whereabouts of
Hezbollah leadership in real time, and so that is likely mirrored in what it
knows about where Hezbollah has kept its munitions.

So far, we have yet to see a barrage of rockets from Hezbollah that has caused
significant (and known) damage to Israeli targets. That may still come if
Hezbollah’s remaining leadership decides that it has to project some kind of
military strength to try to salvage morale and relevance in the region. But if
it tries to project strength and fails, owing to Israeli interceptions, that
will just compound its loss of face.

What is unknown at this point is how fervently Iran feels it needs to be dragged
into this.

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It has shown an extraordinarily high threshold for pain over the past months and
may have a longer view in hand. The West and Israel should be mindful over the
apparent change in tempo of Iran’s uranium enrichment and be petrified of losing
the wider war of non proliferation in a region unable to step back from the
brink.

Yet most profoundly, it is Israel’s next steps that matter most. It has shown
that it has the intelligence advantage, military might, and tolerance for
international condemnation of civilian casualties to continue to strike at will.
But this risks turning a fortnight of brutal strikes into another longer term
loss to Israeli prestige.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a defining choice to make. Does
the past fortnight salvage his domestic reputation for security and leave him
better placed to face the music of the cases against him? Or does he again
calculate that an ongoing war without clear strategic direction is his best way
forward?

Ultimately a wider field of vision must win out. Lebanon’s civilians - and its
southern neighbors - need political accommodation and a ceasefire now,
regardless of what it means for the fate of Israel’s current political elite.




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content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which
target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).

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DEVELOP AND IMPROVE SERVICES 36 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Develop and improve services

Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with
ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to
build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of
audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or
improvement of user profiles and identifiers.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT AND DETECT FRAUD, AND FIX ERRORS 46 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS SPECIAL PURPOSE

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent
activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct
any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery
of content and ads and in your interaction with them.

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DELIVER AND PRESENT ADVERTISING AND CONTENT 37 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS SPECIAL
PURPOSE

Always Active

Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to
ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to
facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.

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SAVE AND COMMUNICATE PRIVACY CHOICES 24 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS SPECIAL PURPOSE

Always Active

The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice
are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals
(such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this
service and those entities to respect such choices.

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MATCH AND COMBINE DATA FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES 30 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS FEATURE

Always Active

Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with
other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for
instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card
in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in
this notice.

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES 27 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS FEATURE

Always Active

In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet
connection on both devices).

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IDENTIFY DEVICES BASED ON INFORMATION TRANSMITTED AUTOMATICALLY 33 PARTNERS CAN
USE THIS FEATURE

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of
your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the
purposes exposed in this notice.

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STRICTLY NECESSARY COOKIES

Always Active

These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched
off in our systems. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these
cookies, but some parts of the site will not work.

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COOKIE LIST



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