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Business
Prognosis


LESS THAN ONE COVID DEATH A DAY IN JAPAN AS NEW CASES PLUMMET

 * Just six people have died of Covid-19 over the last week
 * Other G-7 nations haven’t been at that level since March 2020


Photographer: Toru Hanai/BloombergBloomberg News
December 7, 2021, 1:59 AM ESTUpdated onDecember 7, 2021, 11:08 PM EST


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In the nation with the oldest people, less than one person a day is dying from
Covid-19.

There are so few people getting sick with Covid-19 in Japan that on some recent
days no one has died. That’s brought the number of confirmed deaths in the past
week down to six, the lowest it’s been in the country since July 2020, before
the second wave of pandemic fatalities. 




Compared to other developed nations, such as Germany or the U.S., it’s an even
more remarkable result -- no Group of 7 nation has had so few deaths since the
pandemic started in earnest.


DISAPPEARING DEATHS

Japan's Covid deaths are back at the level of July 2020



Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg





That slump parallels the collapse in reported cases, which are down from more
than 25,000 a day in August to fewer than 200 a day every day for the past three
weeks. The drop in cases and deaths is even more striking considering that
Japan’s population is much larger than all the G-7 nations except the U.S., and
is also older, increasing the risk of death f


FEWER DEATHS THAN MUCH SMALLER NATIONS

In the G-20 only zero-Covid China has fewer people dying than Japan now



Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg

Note: Number in bracket shows more recent daily Covid-19 deaths (7-day trailing
average)

rom Covid-19.



 

It’s unclear exactly why the wave of cases and deaths Japan faced in late summer
and early fall has receded so dramatically. A comprehensive vaccination campaign
is at least partly responsible for the drop, with more than 77% of the nation’s
126 million residents fully inoculated as of Tuesday. 


Pedestrians cross an intersection in Shibuya. Mask wearing is almost universal
in Japan.
Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg

 




The vaccination rate among the vulnerable elderly is even higher, with 92% of
those 65 years and older having received two shots. However, many other
developed nations that have rolled out similarly comprehensive vaccination
campaigns are now seeing rising infections and deaths.



Public use of face masks is almost universal, although authorities have not
issued a mask mandate. Behaviors like mask wearing and reducing visits to
potentially crowded spaces have been consistent throughout the waves of
infection, with Japan’s residents cautious even when cases have ebbed.


STAYING PUT

People's movements in Japan remain below baseline, even in the troughs of
infection waves



Source: Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports, compiled by Bloomberg

Index level indicating movement compared to a baseline before the pandemic

Japan has had 145 confirmed Covid-19 deaths per one million people since the
pandemic began, trailing behind places such as mainland China, New Zealand,
Taiwan or Australia that tried to completely eliminate the virus, or South
Korea, which has also kept deaths very low. However at this point in time, the
daily number of deaths in Japan is below even Australia or South Korea, which
are seeing a rise in cases and deaths.


COVID-19'S SCAR

'Covid-Zero' strategy meant limited fatalities in the Asia-Pacific region



Sources: Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins, United Nations

Note: Cumulative fatalities as of Dec. 6

Pent-up demand after virus curbs were lifted at the end of September should
drive a recovery in the fourth quarter, according to Yuki Masujima of Bloomberg
Economics. 


More from
Bloomberg prognosis
Weekly Covid Cases Pass 10 Million, Doubling Previous Record
Hong Kong Residents Rush to Get Covid Shots as Omicron Cases Grow
Israel to Start Giving Fourth Covid Vaccine to People Over 60
Fauci Says Shorter Isolation May Be Paired With Test Requirement

Despite Japan’s recent success in reducing infections and deaths, the government
was still swift to react to the appearance of the omicron variant, closing the
nation’s borders to new entries by foreigners and limiting the number of
Japanese nationals who can return home. The clampdown came just three weeks
after it had begun lifting its pandemic border restrictions, which have been
some of the strictest in the developed world.

Whether that will be successful at halting the spread of the new variant or
whether Japan will face rising cases or deaths as temperatures drop through
winter is unknown. But at least for now, the risk of dying from Covid-19 is the
lowest it has been in a very long time.

— With assistance by James Mayger, Sophie Jackman, Jinshan Hong, Yoshiaki
Nohara, and Gearoid Reidy

(Updates throughout with latest data.)




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