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HOUSING |
BUBBLE WATCH: RARE SIX-PACK OF RECORD HIGH…


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HOUSING |
BUBBLE WATCH: RARE SIX-PACK OF RECORD HIGH PRICES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HOUSING


NEW PEAKS FOR ALL 6 COUNTIES: ONLY 19TH TIME SINCE 1988


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By Jonathan Lansner | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: May 3, 2022 at 8:06 a.m. | UPDATED: May 3, 2022 at 8:06 a.m.

“Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market
troubles ahead.

Buzz: It was a rare six-pack of all-time highs for median home sales prices in
March in Southern California — only the second time in nearly 17 years the
region saw new records in all six counties.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet analyzed DQNews’ monthly home pricing dating to
1988, tracking when prices peaked.

THE TREND

March’s six-pack of record highs, by county included $1.02 million in Orange —
the region’s first seven-figure median; $840,000 in Los Angeles;  $805,000 in
San Diego; $775,000 in Ventura; $580,000 in Riverside; and $495,000 in San
Bernardino.



Universal record-setting has happened only in 19 months since 1988 — or 5% of
the time over 34 years. Other than another pandemic era occurrence in June 2021,
the last previous six-pack was in May 2005, as the last bubble neared a boiling
point.

The other six-packs were among two bunches — the late 1980s (June 1988, July
1988, December 1988, March 1989, May 1989) and after the turn of the century
(December 2001, June 2002, November 2002, May 2003, June 2003, August 2003,
December 2003, and a four-month string between March and June 2004).

THE DISSECTION

Record highs are more an emotional marker than a major market statistic, but
it’s a real estate conversation starter that’s worth pondering. Look at the new
price peaks of the pandemic era, by county — with a touch of long-term view …

Los Angeles: 12 records since March 2020 as the countywide median rose 35% in
these 25 months to $840,000. Only 10 records were set in the previous 10 years.

Orange: 15 records as the median rose 36% to $1.02 million vs. 11 records in the
previous 10 years.



Riverside: 16 records as the median rose 45% to $580,000 vs. no records in the
previous 13 years.

San Bernardino: 12 records as the median rose 41% to $495,000 vs. no records in
previous 13 years.


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San Diego: 12 records as the median rose 37% to $805,000 vs. 10 records in the
previous 10 years.

Ventura: Eight records as the median rose 35% to $775,000 vs. no records in the
previous 10 years.

And the six-county SoCal median? It has broken 16 records since  coronavirus
upset the economy as regional prices rose 36% to a record $735,000. In the
previous 10 years, eight records were set.

HOW BUBBLY?

On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning)
… FOUR BUBBLES!

Southern California’s two spurts of widespread record-breaking in the past 34
years — and what followed — tells us such broad upward price momentum takes
significant time to wear off. But when the surge is gone, it can take years to
see new price peaks.

In the infamous bubble of the aughts, 12 six-pack months of all-time highs
started in 2001 and ran through 2005. However, Southern California prices — as
measured by the six-county median — didn’t start declining on a year-over-year
basis until September 2007. And that downturn — a 51% loss, peak to trough —
kept SoCal’s median from its next record high until December 2017.

And please do not forget the often-ignored 1988-89 price boom and its
unraveling. Its five months of across-the-board new highs turned into declining
regional prices by April 1992. That era’s reversal — a 19% dip, top to bottom —
meant it wasn’t until May 1999 before another all-time high was set.

So will it be different this time?

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News
Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com





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JONATHAN LANSNER | BUSINESS COLUMNIST

Jonathan Lansner has been the Orange County Register's business columnist since
1997 and has been part of the newspaper's coverage of the local business scene
since 1986. He is a past national president of the Society for Advancing
Business Editing and Writing and a 1979 graduate of the University of
Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
jlansner@scng.com
Follow Jonathan Lansner @jonlan


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