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OECD GROWTH FORECASTS FOR CEE MARGINALLY MORE OPTIMISTIC

ANALYSIS | 12/06/2024 08:26:56 GMT


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ON THE RADAR

 * Romanian 3Q24 GDO growth was confirmed at 1.1% y/y.

 * Industry in Hungary contracted by -3.1% y/y in October.

 * Retail sales in Czechia (excluding auto) grew 5.5% y/y in October.


ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

According to the latest OECD outlook, global GDP growth is projected to
strengthen slightly to 3.3% in 2025 and remain stable at this level through
2026. Euro area should develop at the pace of 1.3% in 2025, while Germany is
expected to grow by 0.7% next year. The OECD has painted a picture of
resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties:
geopolitical tensions, potential disruptions on energy markets or the future
course of global trade. As far as CEE region is concerned, our 2025 GDP
forecasts are mostly aligned with those of OECD. Yet, OECD remains slightly more
optimistic regarding economic development of the region than we are in all
countries but Romania. At this point our 2025 growth forecasts for Romania is at
2.8% as opposed to OECD projections of 2.6% GDP growth.


MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

Romania holds the second round of presidential elections during the weekend.
Far-right candidate Georgescu and pro-European candidate Lasconi will fight for
votes. The most recent polls suggest Lasconi to be in the lead. The CEE
currencies strengthened against the euro at the end of the week. In Poland,
Governor Glapinski unexpectedly pushed the outlook for monetary easing into 2026
as inflation outlook seems to get complicated. Glapinski’s comments go against
the broad consensus that interest rate cuts could begin as early as March 2025.
The other MPC member Wnorowski said that total size of monetary easing is likely
to be lower than 100 basis points, which is another relatively hawkish
statement. The long-term yields increased in Poland to a greater extent than in
other countries and changing monetary policy outlook may be one of the reasons
behind such development.



Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

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This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our
customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press
time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however,
Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for
accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is
neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.





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EDITORS’ PICKS


EUR/USD BEARISH OUTLOOK REMAINS IN PLAY NEAR 1.0550, EYES ON ECB RATE DECISION

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.0560 during the early
European session on Tuesday. However, the upside for the major pair seems
limited amid the rising bets for additional reductions by the European Central
Bank on Thursday.


EUR/USD News




GBP/USD MAINTAINS POSITION AROUND 1.2750 AMID MARKET CAUTION AS KEY ECONOMIC
FIGURES LOOM

GBP/USD remains stable for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.2750
during the Asian session on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive pair could face
challenges as the US Dollar continues to gain ground due to market caution ahead
of the US Consumer Price Index data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.


GBP/USD News




GOLD PRICE CLINGS TO GAIN AROUND $2,670/TWO-WEEK TOP, SHORT-TERM BULLISH BIAS
REMAINS

Gold price climbs back closer to a two-week high and draws support from a
combination of factors. Geopolitical risks continue to benefit the safe-haven
XAU/USD amid December Fed rate cut bets. The technical setup now seems tilted in
favor of bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.


Gold News





DOGE AND SHIB LEVERAGED TRADERS WIPED OUT: OVER $108 MILLION IN LIQUIDATED

Dogecoin and Shiba Inu prices continue to edge down on Tuesday after falling
more than 10% on Monday. The recent downturn at the start of this week has
liquidated over $108 million from these dog theme-based memecoins in the last 24
hours.


Read more



BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST: AMAZON SHAREHOLDERS ADVOCATE FOR BTC ADOPTION AMID
MICROSOFT’S INVESTMENT VOTE

Bitcoin edges down 2.5%, trading below $98,500 on Monday, after rallying 4% and
reaching a new all-time high of $104,088 last week. As BTC reached its $100K
milestone, big corporates showed interest in the largest digital asset by market
capitalization. 


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BEST FOREX BROKERS WITH LOW SPREADS

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MAJORS


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CRYPTOCURRENCIES


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    By CoinDesk Analysis Team | Dec 09, 12:23 GMT


SIGNATURES


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    By TradeTheNews.com Staff 43 minutes ago


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    [VIDEO]
    
    
    By Elliott Wave Forecast Team 05:13 GMT



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





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