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News
World Gold Council: The Fed's start to cut interest rates is a catalyst for gold
prices to rise in the medium term
2024-07-17 02:23:09
Joe Cavatoni, chief market strategist for North America at the World Gold
Council (WGC), said that global gold ETFs are beginning to respond to
geopolitical risks, but the main factor driving gold prices higher will be
central bank interest rate cuts.



In a recent interview, Cavatoni said that the World Gold Council is paying close
attention to global ETF flows as gold prices break through $2,400 again, but the
real driving force for the gold bull market will be the Federal Reserve starting
to cut interest rates.

"We're getting sentiment from the Fed that a rate cut may be coming. That
will be the catalyst we talked about in our mid-year outlook that could bring
Western investors back into the market," he said.

Cavatoni said that the World Gold Council is very concerned about gold demand in
Asia, because central bank purchases and investor interest in the region are an
important part of the support for gold prices. He said that the market is paying
attention to gold demand in Asia, which is also an important factor that has
been supporting gold prices. In addition, the market is also paying attention to
the demand for gold in the West.

He also said that while the People's Bank of China may slow down its gold
purchases, which may put some downward pressure on gold prices in the short
term, the World Gold Council does not believe the People's Bank of China or
other central banks will actually start selling gold reserves. Even when gold
prices were at all-time highs.

He said: "We do not expect central banks to unwind or sell gold positions. On
the contrary, this is an environment for them to continue to evaluate and
cautiously accumulate foreign exchange reserves. This is an emerging market
trend and one that looks likely to continue. Go down."

Finally, Cavatoni shared his thoughts on the potential impact of geopolitical
tensions. He believes that geopolitical tensions are second only to interest
rate cuts as the driving force behind gold price movements.

Cavatoni concluded: “We talk a lot about what will bring Western investors back
to gold. I think geopolitical tensions can go hot and cold. I think the issue
now is the Fed’s monetary policy. In Europe, Europe Central banks have cut
interest rates, we have some political uncertainty with some elections going on,
and there's also the ongoing issue of ongoing tensions in Ukraine, all of which
has resulted in about $2 billion flowing into European ETFs over the past two
months. "

"This is a signal. When U.S. (interest rates) start to move, we will see gold
prices and allocations increase and that will be a catalyst," he said.
More >
Positive(36418)
Negative(16246)
Multiple positive factors helped gold prices reach a new all-time high. Analyst:
It has not reached the "normal" overbought state, with a target of 2,500
2024-07-17 02:20:36
Spot gold soared nearly $47 on Tuesday (July 16), a rise that shocked many
market participants. In early trading in Asia on Wednesday, spot gold further
rose to $2,476 per ounce, setting a new historical high.

Spot gold closed up $46.55, or 1.92%, on Tuesday at $2,468.70 per ounce.



According to analysis by Bloomberg, gold prices hit a record high as hopes of a
rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased and some traders increased their bets
on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. In addition, the recent
increase in exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings has also contributed to gold's
upward momentum.

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that gold prices soared
to historical highs due to growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut
interest rates in September. Trump's potential election victory has heightened
market volatility, prompting investors to turn to gold. In addition,
lower-than-expected inflation data and Powell's dovish comments also supported
gold prices.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the
possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is 100%, and a
very small number of economists predict a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

Valencia said political developments, including those of former U.S. President
Donald Trump, had boosted gold's gains. Trump's presidency will be devoted to
raising tariffs and cutting taxes, which is likely to increase the U.S. budget
deficit and create inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended the Economic Club of Washington
on Monday and said the U.S. economy was doing well. Recent inflation data have
increased the confidence of Fed officials that price pressures will continue to
remain low and inflation can return to the target track.

"Once it is confident that inflation is moving toward its 2% target, the Fed
will lower borrowing costs," Powell added.

Tai Wong, an independent metals trader analyst in New York, said: "While core
retail sales data were stronger than expected, gold prices surged to a record
high inspired by Powell's comments on Monday. This is essentially an affirmation
of a rate cut in September, unless the next few weeks There is an inflationary
disaster.”

San Francisco Fed President Daly also said that the inflation rate is moving
towards the Fed's 2% target and "confidence is increasing."

Falling U.S. interest rates will weigh on the dollar and U.S. bond yields. Since
gold does not earn interest, this reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold
and makes it more attractive to investors.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported last Thursday that the U.S. consumer price
index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first decline since May 2020.
The market had previously expected a 0.1% increase. The U.S. non-seasonally
adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, lower than market expectations of
3.1% and hitting the lowest level since June last year.

Gold prices have risen more than 19% so far this year after rising 13% in 2023.

City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said: "This is mainly due to weak
economic data and declining inflationary pressures, U.S. bond yields continue to
be under pressure, which helps increase the attractiveness of gold, thereby
keeping the outlook for gold optimistic."

How to trade after gold price surges?

From a gold technical perspective, FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia
pointed out that gold prices surged on Tuesday, with traders currently targeting
$2,500 per ounce.

Valencia wrote that gold prices broke through the May 20 high of $2,450 per
ounce, opening the door for further gains. Gold prices remain bullish and are
currently at all-time highs. Momentum remains in favor of gold bulls, as
depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is higher and has not
reached "regular" overbought conditions.

Valencia said the next resistance level for gold prices will be $2,475 per
ounce, followed by $2,500 per ounce.

(Daily chart of spot gold)

On the other hand, if gold prices fell below $2,450 an ounce, the first support
would be $2,400 an ounce, followed by the July 5 high of $2,392 an ounce,
Valencia added. If the above-mentioned levels are effectively broken, gold
prices will continue to fall to $2,350 per ounce.
More >
Positive(46831)
Negative(21687)
Gold market analysis: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal
Reserve help gold prices hold on to the 2,400 mark
2024-07-15 03:55:22
On Friday (July 12), the price of gold remained above the key point of US$2,400
per ounce. The price of gold rose by 1% for the whole week and rose for the
third consecutive week. This is because U.S. inflation data is weak and
investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve is about to cut
interest rates, boosting gold's bullish buying interest and helping gold hold on
to the $2,400 mark.



Continuing last Thursday's weak consumer price index, Friday's modest increase
in U.S. producer prices in June further confirmed that inflation has resumed its
downward trend and strengthened the case for an interest rate cut in September.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve Watch Tool, the
market currently believes that the probability of a rate cut in September has
increased to 94%, almost completely pricing in expectations for a rate cut in
September. While last Friday's producer price index slightly dampened some of
gold's upward momentum, gold was still able to hold on to key support at $2,400
an ounce. For some analysts, this is a strong sign that gold’s consolidation
phase is coming to an end. Last week's relatively dovish remarks from Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, coupled with lower-than-expected consumer price
index (CPI) inflation, gave gold new bullish momentum. Robert Minter, director
of ETF strategy at abrdn, said these two factors gave gold the invitation to the
upside it had been waiting for. Minter added that with the labor market slowing,
the Fed needs to act now to avoid getting into deeper trouble. "There is a
strong case for a rate cut in September," he said. "If you look at how high
consumer debt is, it doesn't take much stress on the labor market to cause real
problems for the economy. I don't think we're going to see a recession, but it
all depends on the Fed. It’s a little late for them to take action, but not too
late.” The most noteworthy data release this week is the U.S. retail sales data
for June. Economists pointed out that if consumption weakens further, it will
undoubtedly intensify expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal
Reserve. This may also help gold continue to hit historical peaks.



From a technical perspective, looking at the daily chart, gold prices have since
rebounded and broken through the resistance of the 60-day moving average, and
the trend has stabilized above this level and maintained an upward trend. The
20-day, 60-day and 100-day moving averages have also been arranged upward,
suggesting a good bullish outlook for the market outlook. . In the short term,
there may still be a risk of repeatedly falling back to the 2400 mark. If it can
maintain this level without breaking below, the market outlook can continue to
rise higher. The current points that need attention are the support near
US$2,402 and US$2,395 at the bottom; the resistance positions that need to be
paid attention to above are US$2,415 and US$2,423, respectively.
More >
Positive(29634)
Negative(17263)
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